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FXUS62 KCAE 072342 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 642 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure will continue overnight but by Friday the area of high pressure will shift east of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. This will lead to a gradual warming trend Friday through Sunday. A highly amplified pattern then sets up for the weekend with a high probability of rain on Sunday along with the potential for thunderstorms. Another cool, dry air mass follows the frontal passage for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Dry surface high pressure will remain centered just to our south. Satellite indicates some high level cloud cover will stream into the area overnight, resulting in min temps tonight several degrees higher than last night.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Friday and Friday night: An upper ridge is expected to build over the region on Friday while a surface high is anticipated to start sliding offshore. These factors are expected lead to a shift to southerly winds and slightly warmer temperatures. However, dry conditions persist.

Saturday and Saturday night: Saturday should start off dry across the region as the upper ridge and surface high slowly move eastward.
The warming trend is expected to continue as well. An approaching upper trough is forecast to translate across the central CONUS towards the eastern seaboard. An associated cold front is expected to develop as this trough moves towards the region. As the trough approaches, an increase in moisture can be anticipated. Latest NAEFs forecast shows PWATs should increase to the 1.25-1.5" range by early Sunday morning. Due to the increasing moisture, some shower activity is possible ahead of the front. Confidence is increasing that gusty winds begin to develop during the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The main forecast challenge continues to be the system that is expected to affect the region Sunday into Sunday night. The aforementioned upper trough continues to dig south and move eastward. The associated surface front is also forecast to continue moving eastward through our forecast area. However, there remains uncertainty in the timing of the frontal passage. The latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest an afternoon or early evening event. This seems reasonable that the model solutions are slowing down from the previous few runs as has been typical with digging troughs. Confidence remains high (80-90%) that much of the area will see rainfall with this system and that gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms (~25%) as the front passes through the region.

As the front approaches, PWATs are forecast to increase to about 200% or more of normal for this time of year as southwesterly flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface ushers in the increased moisture. These higher PWATs lead to the potential of localized heavy rain. Upper level winds are also anticipated to be strong, allowing for some relatively high 0-6 km bulk shear values potentially reaching 60 knots or greater. Even the 850 mb winds are forecast to be around 40 knots, causing some gusty winds at the surface outside of thunderstorm activity. Forecast CAPE values remain on the lower end (<500 J/kg) for the most part, leading to a low CAPE high shear situation. These factors are sufficient enough for a limited severe weather threat Sunday with damaging winds being the main threat. The timing of the front could play a key role in the overall severe weather threat. If the front passes earlier in the day, the severe threat will likely be lower than if it passes during peak heating. Another caveat to the severe weather threat is the potential for the shear being too high, hindering some upscale growth.

After the system passes through the region, drier air and cooler temperatures return for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions likely through the valid TAF period.

SKC this evening with increasing mainly high clouds, becoming SCT toward daybreak Friday. Clouds continue to increase and thicken through the day with CIGS slowly lowering, but still VFR through 09/00z. Near calm or very light and variable winds through tonight.
Friday morning, winds should pick up from the southwest around 5 to 7 knots. At this time, not expecting any fog at the usual locations of AGS/OGB overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread restrictions will be Saturday night through Sunday evening as a strong cold front moves through the region with showers and thunderstorms. No restrictions expected early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EST     1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:01 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonset
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Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Thu -- 12:47 AM EST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
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Thu -- 01:17 PM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonset
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Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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