Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Hueneme, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/827 PM.

***UPDATE***

It was certainly a record breaking day today, with every one of our official climate stations (13 in total) breaking their calendar day record for March 17, and 9 stations reaching or breaking their all time hottest temperature for the entire month of May. With the record fanfare out of the way, this is just the start of a dangerous heat wave. While temperatures at the coast should drop some over the next few days as the weak offshore flow from today turns neutral, valleys and mountains will be just as hot if not hotter for each of the next 3 days as they were today.
This sort of duration can put a lot of stress on the body, and the risk for heat illness only grows even if the temperatures do not.
The Extreme Heat Warning will continue on track for most valleys and lower mountains, with Heat Advisories everywhere else. The areas of most concern are the inland coastal plains and some valleys were access to air conditioning is limited. The other area of concern is the foothills and lower mountains, which warm and relief-less nights that may not dip below 80 will make the daytime heat even more concerning.

The forecast looks good with only minor tweaks to temperatures made based on the new intel from todays observed highs. While not in the forecast, patches of very dense fog cannot be discounted as early as tonight over the waters and immediate coast, with increasing chances each day going forward as pressure gradients become neutral to weakly onshore. This would bring some relief to the immediate coasts, but would not affect areas inland due to the shallowness of any marine layer.

***From Previous Discussion***

Virtually all the record reporting sites in southwest California broke daily records today. Santa Maria broke the daily record by a whopping 12 degrees and also tied the monthly record for March.
Oxnard and Camarillo broke their daily record by 9 degrees!! And Oxnard tied the all time record for the month of March.

No significant changes in the forecast the rest of the week.
Models do show a slight onshore trend tomorrow so theoretically temperatures, at least near the coast, should cool at least a few degrees, but still 20-30 degrees above normal. Inland areas probably won't cool much at all, and some areas, especially far inland areas, will be warmer. In general, daily records tomorrow are quite a bit cooler so most of not all the sites listed above will likely break records tomorrow as well.

Record highs for Downtown LA this week are as follows:

Wednesday: 87 in 1997 Thursday: 97 in 1997 Friday: 93 in 1997

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...17/228 PM.

Saturday and Sunday, models suggest that the high pressure will start to flatten out resulting in zonal flow (west to east), and temperatures will finally start to decrease again. For Saturday, there is a 50% chance that some heat products will need to extended through the evening hours, mainly inland and away from the beaches. However by Sunday, things should cool down rather noticeably. Therefore, no heat products are anticipated.
Additionally, the marine layer low clouds and fog may return to coastal areas each night as early as Friday night, and more widespread Saturday night.

As for rain chances, deterministic models (and their respective ensembles) indicate some possibility of light showers after the 25th. Though the current run of the deterministic EC is extremely light, if any, and the GFS shows the front breaking up by Point Conception and not reaching areas south of Point Conception (and still very light). However, no significant storms are indicated for Southern California through the end of the month.

AVIATION
18/0633Z.

Around 0530Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 900 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for a very low to low chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions at coastal terminals between 10Z and 14Z, and a low to moderate chance at coastal terminals after 08Z Thursday.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for 10 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions between 10Z and 14Z, and a 30 percent chance at coastal terminals after 08Z Thursday. Any east winds will be less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind impacts are expected through the period.

MARINE
17/1030 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast with generally light winds and small seas through Thursday night. Moderate confidence Friday onward.

Winds will very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through at least Thursday night. There is a moderate (30-40 percent) chance of SCA level winds each evening across the far northwestern portion of the coastal waters on Thursday evening and Friday evening.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level conditions developing over the weekend with a low (15-20 percent) chance of GALES.

There is a slight chance for dense fog tonight into Wednesday morning, becoming more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and shallow marine inversion may linger over the coastal waters through the week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 87-340-341-346>350-354-355-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.