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FXUS62 KFFC 300535 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1235 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023


New 06Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

NW flow at 500mb should shift out of the SW by tomorrow. Several shortwaves will move east in the flow through the period, but the only impacts should be periods of scattered thin cirrus. However, as isentropic lift increases tomorrow night, mid and high level clouds will increase.

At the surface, cold and very dry airmass is in place. The airmass will moderate slightly through tomorrow afternoon as the surface winds turn easterly and clouds increase. Models typically underestimate the strength of the isentropic lift...so clouds my move in a little faster than what is currently forecast. Do think any precip that falls out of the clouds will take awhile to overcome the very dry air in place. Speaking of the dry air in place, the evaporative cooling could support some light sleet at precip onset in far NE GA. Little, if any, impacts are anticipated.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

The beginning of the long term forecast period begins with an active weather pattern that will bring much needed rainfall to the forecast area. With a stout high pressure setup over the Caribbean, a 500 mb trough will amplify over the Four Corners Region and progress eastward over the Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will advect abundant moisture (PWATs running from 1.0 to 1.5+") from the Gulf of Mexico over the forecast area as a cold front associated with a surface low passing just to the north approaches the forecast area producing rain beginning early Friday morning. During the onset of precipitation, temperatures in the low to mid-30s are forecast for portions of higher elevations in the northeast Georgia mountains. Models continue to prog a thin, but very dry layer ~800mb, which could result in enough evaporative cooling to produce a mixture of ice pellets/sleet. Luckily, no impacts are expected from this should any wintry mix occur.
Throughout the day Friday ahead of the cold front, mostly rain is expected. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out at this time with MUCAPE between 300-500 J/kg across the area. A similar forecast is on tap for Saturday as the cold front finally pushes through the area. As the surface low occludes over the midwest Sunday, yet another cold front will pass through the area producing additional rainfall and chances for embedded thunderstorms. The active weather will persist through early Tuesday when the cold front is finally able to clear the area.

With several days of rain expected throughout the long term, there has been an uptick in the rainfall totals with today's forecast package. A plume of 3.0 to 4.0+ inches is progged for areas south of I-20 and areas northward are forecast to receive 1.5-3.0". The highest rainfall amounts are expected within a swath from Columbus to Macon where 4.0-4.5+ inches of rainfall will be possible. These QPF ranges are valid from Friday morning through early Tuesday morning. With this much rainfall in the forecast, we could see some instances of flash flooding as well as a few rivers and flashier creeks/streams reaching minor flood status.

Daytime temperatures Friday will warm into the upper 60s and 70s for areas south of the progressing warm front with areas northward within the wedge in the 50s. A warming trend in the 60s and 70s continues beginning Saturday and lasting through Monday when the second cold front finally pushes through. Maximum temperatures on Tuesday will then drop into the 50s and low 60s. Low temperatures on Friday morning will start in the upper 30s and 40s but will remain elevated through the overnight hours generally in the 50s through Monday as insulating clouds cover the forecast area. Tuesday morning will see the return of near normal low temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s.

KAL

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions, with increasing high clouds, will continue through 06Z on Friday. After this point, rain chances will begin to spread from west to east into Georgia. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming SW at 4-8 kts after 15Z and through the remainder of the period.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
High confidence on all elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 40 59 52 64 / 60 90 80 80 Atlanta 44 61 58 65 / 60 90 70 80 Blairsville 38 55 48 61 / 80 90 60 60 Cartersville 43 61 55 66 / 80 90 60 80 Columbus 45 67 61 69 / 40 90 60 90 Gainesville 41 54 50 62 / 80 90 70 70 Macon 43 67 59 68 / 30 80 70 90 Rome 43 63 55 67 / 80 100 50 70 Peachtree City 42 63 58 66 / 50 90 70 90 Vidalia 45 74 61 70 / 10 50 60 80

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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