Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Acworth, GA

LONG TERM
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Key Messages:

- Rain and thunderstorm chances pick up towards the end of the week, with the best chance looking to be on Friday as a system sweeps into the area. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but will need to be monitored for this time period.

- Warm and a bit humid towards the end of the week, switching to feeling a bit cooler and more seasonable over the weekend into early next week.

Forecast:

Very interesting pattern aloft going into the long term that will see us move from a fairly progressive upper level pattern to one that will be a bit more stagnant. Subtropical ridge will be in place over the SE starting Wednesday as a shortwave ejects from the 4 corners region into the southern Great Plains. Diurnally driven isolated to scattered pop-up convection can be expected across portions of the CWA with plenty of daytime heating and copious surface moisture in place. As this wave moves by the CWA on Thursday to our NW, convection and rain may develop to the west that is able to progress into portions of Georgia, with best chances across the NW. Otherwise, some diurnally driven convection may again be possible. By Friday, a larger wave digs from the northern jet into the eastern CONUS that should drive a front towards the area, bringing thunderstorm chances during the afternoon and into the overnight areas across the entire area. That front slowly pushes through the area Friday night into Saturday, allowing for some potential storms in east central Georgia on Saturday dependent upon the forward speed of the front.

If there is a day for some severe weather, Friday remains the day to watch. Given we are moving into May, instability seems to no longer be as limiting a factor, and we see that with this system. NBM probabilities of seeing >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE are generally at or above 60% across much of the CWA out ahead of the front during the late afternoon. Limiting factor in this case will be the shear.
Sampled model soundings for 21Z and 00Z show around 25-30 kts of 0- 6km shear with hodographs that are very straight. Upper level wave is not the most potent, thankfully, which seems to be limiting on the upper level winds which is driving lower overall shear values.
Will need to keep an eye on this - not expecting widespread severe with this right now, but always get a little nervy with an organized system moving through this time of year.

After this front moves through, this is where the "interesting" pattern comes in. Ensembles and the model suite seem to have pretty good agreement on the upper level pattern stagnating a bit as we move into early next week. Looking at the dynamic tropopause, this seems to be driven by a series of Rossby wave breaks happening kind of all around around us, both cyclonically and anticyclonically. The end result is many models signaling an omega block with the high centered right over the top of the eastern CONUS. This means we will likely be mostly dry and likely a bit cooler than we've been to start next week, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday and slowly warming into the week, if it comes to pass. Always important to note that wave breaking regimes remain a challenge for all model guidance - so don't bank on this just yet, especially 5-7 days out.

Lusk

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

MVFR clouds from this morning have risen and scattered out into a low VFR deck. Winds will be out of the SE at 5-10kts. with gusts as high as 18kts. TSRA is possible south of a line from CSG to MCN.
IFR CIGS are expected again during the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update

High on all elements.

Vaughn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 59 80 61 83 / 0 10 0 20 Atlanta 64 79 64 83 / 0 10 0 30 Blairsville 55 76 57 79 / 0 20 10 40 Cartersville 61 81 61 84 / 0 20 0 30 Columbus 65 84 64 85 / 0 20 0 20 Gainesville 60 78 62 82 / 0 10 0 20 Macon 63 82 62 85 / 0 20 0 10 Rome 60 81 61 85 / 0 20 0 30 Peachtree City 62 80 61 83 / 0 20 0 30 Vidalia 63 83 61 87 / 0 10 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.