Sunrise 6:59 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 4:26 PM   Moonset 4:28 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS62 KFFC 201424 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1024 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

UPDATE
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Old surface boundary is currently situated across south central portions of GA this morning. The boundary will be the focus for any scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon/evening. Convection may end up developing a little later in the afternoon due to the increasing cloud cover moving in from the west. The best coverage of storms will be along and south of the boundary, which is very close to a Macon to Columbus line. A few strong storms are possible, and an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Hail and gusty winds would be the primary hazards from thunderstorms.



SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon near and S of a Columbus to Macon line.

- Cooler temperatures will gradually filter S into the area through the weekend.

Near zonal upper flow is presently over the area. As a result, a very weak surface front is making very slow southward progress across the state. Shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated, leaving multi-layered cloudiness across much of the forecast area.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop S of the frontal boundary by afternoon due to less cloud cover over that area coupled with MUCAPE values of over 1500 J/kg. Effective shear levels in that area are fairly low, but they are forecast to increase a bit through the day as W mid and upper level wind increase. Strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail (a few possibly approaching severe limits). Elsewhere, conditions will remain mostly dry, as there will be very little dynamic or thermodynamic support for precipitation.

A shortwave will approach the area from the W tonight, with an associated frontal wave moving E along the old frontal surface. As a result, isentropic lift will increase across the area. This will lead to mostly stratiform rain spreading across the area late tonight and on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with the best chances near the frontal surface over the S portion of the area. A short-lived thunderstorm or two will also be possible embedded within the stratiform rain area in locations where isentropic lift is the strongest.

Cooler temperatures will gradually filter into the area from the N behind the cold front. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 60s across the N mountains to the upper 80s SE of Macon. Low temperatures tonight will range from near 40 in some of the NE mountains to near 60s in the extreme SE portion of the forecast area. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to span from near 50 in the NE to the lower to mid 70s in the extreme SE. These temperatures will be about 15 degrees below normal across most of the area (closer to 5 to 10 degrees below normal in the SE).

SEC

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Highlights:

-Cooler and drier conditions return to the state early next week followed by gradual warming through the week.

-The next opportunity for rain looks to hold off until next weekend.

Rain will gradually come to an end at the start of the long term period (Sunday night) as a shortwave trough sweeps across the Mid- South/TN Valley region acting to push a cold front through the forecast area. This will be followed by a period of drier and cooler conditions as weak ridging sets up in the mid-levels and surface high pressure becomes situated across much of the southeast and up the east coast. A closed low is set to develop across south-central Canada and translate east across the Great Lakes Region to the northeast states around mid-week. At this time doesn't look like much in the way of precip will come of this feature as any upper level support and sufficient moisture remains well to our north. The most we may see is some mid to high level clouds across North GA midweek. Following this feature, we return to northwest flow aloft with dry conditions continuing through late week as upper ridging becomes more amplified. Long term guidance indicates another closed low forming east of the Rockies and ejecting east across the Central Plains towards the end of next week. Too early to hash out any specifics as there remain too many inconsistencies among models.
Though rain chances may sneak back into the forecast at some point next weekend.

Cooler temperatures will kick off the long term period and will be followed by warming trend on Wednesday. In the wake of the cold frontal passage, forecast temperatures Monday morning will range from the 40s (upper 30s in the NE GA mtns) to low 50s and by the afternoon warm into the 60s. Similar low temperatures are expected on Monday night/Tuesday morning with widespread 40s. Tuesday through the remainder of the period temperatures are forecast to warm to the 70s (and low 80s across south-central GA) during the afternoon and cool to the 40s/50s overnight.

07

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Mostly VFR conditions continue, although a few sites NW of the Atlanta metro area have been reporting cigs below 500 ft over the past several hours. Shower and tstm activity this afternoon should affect mainly CSG and MCN. Hi res models are producing a bit more shower activity farther to the N, but still away from the other terminals. An approaching shortwave and associated frontal wave will produce increasing isentropic lift and mostly stratiform rain after midnight tonight. There may be a few embedded, short- lived tstms in this area of rain, with the best chances farther S.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium with low clouds early this morning and rain start time tonight. High for other elements.

SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 51 58 46 65 / 20 100 20 10 Atlanta 51 58 46 65 / 30 100 10 10 Blairsville 43 56 37 62 / 10 100 10 0 Cartersville 45 58 40 66 / 50 100 10 0 Columbus 55 62 48 69 / 40 70 10 0 Gainesville 51 58 45 64 / 10 100 10 10 Macon 56 64 50 67 / 30 80 20 10 Rome 47 60 42 67 / 60 100 0 0 Peachtree City 49 59 44 66 / 40 100 10 10 Vidalia 64 74 52 66 / 30 70 40 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Atlanta, GA,