Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
July 26, 2024 7:37 PM CDT (00:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:42 AM Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM Moonset 11:37 AM |
FXUS64 KLUB 262327 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
An upper-level ridge was centered over Southern California this afternoon, with an axis extending up to the northern Great Plains.
Meanwhile, positively-tilted troughing was located over Texas, placing the forecast area under NNE flow aloft. As an upper low crossing into Saskatchewan continues to move eastward, the ridge should flatten and begin to gradually shift eastward through the period while the trough in TX ejects to the northeast on Saturday.
At 500mb, a weak low over AR will strengthen and meander northwestward, causing heights to fall slowly over the CWA through tomorrow afternoon.
After midnight, PoPs increase slightly over the South Plains and far southwest TXPH. 0-3km shear around 30kt and elevated CAPE between 300-800 J/kg in the overnight hours provide potential for weak elevated convection. However, the source of greatest convergence, a lee surface trough, is expected to be located near the TX/NM state line overnight, which is west of the more favorable shear and instability. The result is a narrow corridor for isolated overnight showers and thunderstorms, likely setting up near the I-27 corridor.
This area was therefore given an isolated mention. Any storms that develop should diminish around sunrise tomorrow.
Despite gradual height falls at 500mb, thicknesses are not expected to change much, suggesting that high temperatures on Saturday will continue to hover near average. In the far southeastern TXPH and northern Rolling Plains, convective temperatures should be reached, and given sufficient instability, isolated thunderstorm development is possible here Saturday afternoon. As a result, an isolated mention was added for these areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
A quiet forecast continues to be expected Sunday into late next week. Upper troughing off the West Coast will help push the upper high, currently over the Desert Southwest, eastward before settling over Texas by late Sunday/early Monday. Models are in good agreement with keeping the upper high overhead through at least Thursday. This will result in high temps near/over 100 degrees for most of next week. The upper high will also keep rain chances at a minimum.
Though beyond the forecast period, there are some hints at a possible relief from hot/dry conditions late next week into the weekend as models show the upper high retreating northwestward with a cold front pushing southward into the Southern Plains.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The main aviation concern is the potential for TSRA in the vicinity of LBB and PVW after midnight. The best time window for this potential is from 07 UTC/2 am CDT to 11 UTC/6 am CDT.
confidence in impacts at LBB and/or PVW remains too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. There is also a chance of TSRA Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring the CDS terminal for possible impacts. Brief heavy downpours locally lowering VSBY and gusty, erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of any t-storm activity.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
An upper-level ridge was centered over Southern California this afternoon, with an axis extending up to the northern Great Plains.
Meanwhile, positively-tilted troughing was located over Texas, placing the forecast area under NNE flow aloft. As an upper low crossing into Saskatchewan continues to move eastward, the ridge should flatten and begin to gradually shift eastward through the period while the trough in TX ejects to the northeast on Saturday.
At 500mb, a weak low over AR will strengthen and meander northwestward, causing heights to fall slowly over the CWA through tomorrow afternoon.
After midnight, PoPs increase slightly over the South Plains and far southwest TXPH. 0-3km shear around 30kt and elevated CAPE between 300-800 J/kg in the overnight hours provide potential for weak elevated convection. However, the source of greatest convergence, a lee surface trough, is expected to be located near the TX/NM state line overnight, which is west of the more favorable shear and instability. The result is a narrow corridor for isolated overnight showers and thunderstorms, likely setting up near the I-27 corridor.
This area was therefore given an isolated mention. Any storms that develop should diminish around sunrise tomorrow.
Despite gradual height falls at 500mb, thicknesses are not expected to change much, suggesting that high temperatures on Saturday will continue to hover near average. In the far southeastern TXPH and northern Rolling Plains, convective temperatures should be reached, and given sufficient instability, isolated thunderstorm development is possible here Saturday afternoon. As a result, an isolated mention was added for these areas.
LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
A quiet forecast continues to be expected Sunday into late next week. Upper troughing off the West Coast will help push the upper high, currently over the Desert Southwest, eastward before settling over Texas by late Sunday/early Monday. Models are in good agreement with keeping the upper high overhead through at least Thursday. This will result in high temps near/over 100 degrees for most of next week. The upper high will also keep rain chances at a minimum.
Though beyond the forecast period, there are some hints at a possible relief from hot/dry conditions late next week into the weekend as models show the upper high retreating northwestward with a cold front pushing southward into the Southern Plains.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
The main aviation concern is the potential for TSRA in the vicinity of LBB and PVW after midnight. The best time window for this potential is from 07 UTC/2 am CDT to 11 UTC/6 am CDT.
confidence in impacts at LBB and/or PVW remains too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. There is also a chance of TSRA Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring the CDS terminal for possible impacts. Brief heavy downpours locally lowering VSBY and gusty, erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of any t-storm activity.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCDS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
Wind History graph: CDS
(wind in knots)
Frederick, OK,
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