Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
December 9, 2023 9:43 AM CST (15:43 UTC)
Sunrise 7:31AM Sunset 5:28PM Moonrise 4:10AM Moonset 3:07PM
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 091121 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
A strong surge of cold air is expected to arrive this morning as an upper level trough moves east across the Great Plains. A surface low currently sitting over North Texas will shoot northeast and become absorbed into the main surface low associated with the wave, opening the southern gate for this cold air mass. North winds will increase this morning to around 20-25 mph which will lead to wind chill values about 10 degrees cooler throughout the morning for most areas.
As the base of upper level trough moves east, models show a ribbon of moisture around 850-700 mb moving south through the Texas Panhandle (where it is already precipitating as of 09Z). With increasing ascent through PVA, an east-west oriented band of precipitation is expected to move south through the Texas Panhandle this morning riding along the main area of upper level vorticity.
Temperatures will be cold enough that precipitation will likely be all snow or a rain/snow mix for areas in the southern Texas Panhandle and possibly as far south as the northwest South Plains.
High resolutions model guidance has been very consistent with this precipitation band surviving as far south as the northwest South Plains so mentionable PoPs have been increased and expanded a bit farther into this area. Any snow showers are expected to produce generally light snow but a quick burst of moderate snow is possible as this activity moves into our area, although a quickly depleting supply of moisture should lead to a downward trend in coverage and intensity by the time it reaches the far southern Texas Panhandle.
As for snow accumulations, the far southwest Texas Panhandle has the greatest chances of seeing a dusting of snow and possibly up to a half inch of snow if there is a quick burst of moderate snowfall.
The temperatures forecast for today is of relatively low confidence due to the anticipated effects from cloud cover. If clouds hang on through the evening, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 30s and low-40s for most areas. Temperatures will plummet tonight as surface high pressures sets in, winds weaken, and skies clear. Lows will range from the teens in the southwest Texas Panhandle to the upper 20s in the southeast Rolling Plains.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Key Messages:
- Seasonal temperatures with dry weather expected through Tuesday.
- Widespread cold and wet weather returns Wednesday with a slight chance of snow in the NW.
In the wake of todays cold front dry NW flow will develop over the region allowing temperatures to slowly warm into the 50s and 60s through Tuesday when the flow becomes more zonal. Each night lows will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s.
The weather dramatically changes Wednesday as a mid-level closed low begins to deepen near the Four Corners region and surface high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS. While there is finally some run-to-run continuity in the evolution of the closed low the big question that remains is what happens after the low forms.
Early this morning ensembles are favoring the closed low dropping south and moving eastward through the Desert South West. Main disagreement comes as to whether it tracks south through the EPZ CWA (GEFS) or stays further north and tracks through the ABQ CWA (EPS).
Nonetheless both scenarios allow for Gulf Moisture to be advected into the region ahead of the low. Global models continue to imply that precipitation will be possible starting as early as Wednesday morning and ending late Friday. Have held NBM PoPs, but have included a slight mention of very light snow in our far NW counties each night where 850mb temps fall to 0C with rain everywhere else.
With this event still 5-7 days out the expectation is that the overall forecast will remain in flux through at least Tuesday with QPF totals varying. Be sure to keep checking back for updates.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
VFR conditions expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24 hours. A cold front will move through all three terminals this morning and north winds will increase to around 20 knots. There is a small chance that snow showers affect KPVW this morning but this activity is expected to remain north of the terminal. There is also a small chance that CIGs drop close to MVFR at KLBB and KPVW as the front moves through but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
A strong surge of cold air is expected to arrive this morning as an upper level trough moves east across the Great Plains. A surface low currently sitting over North Texas will shoot northeast and become absorbed into the main surface low associated with the wave, opening the southern gate for this cold air mass. North winds will increase this morning to around 20-25 mph which will lead to wind chill values about 10 degrees cooler throughout the morning for most areas.
As the base of upper level trough moves east, models show a ribbon of moisture around 850-700 mb moving south through the Texas Panhandle (where it is already precipitating as of 09Z). With increasing ascent through PVA, an east-west oriented band of precipitation is expected to move south through the Texas Panhandle this morning riding along the main area of upper level vorticity.
Temperatures will be cold enough that precipitation will likely be all snow or a rain/snow mix for areas in the southern Texas Panhandle and possibly as far south as the northwest South Plains.
High resolutions model guidance has been very consistent with this precipitation band surviving as far south as the northwest South Plains so mentionable PoPs have been increased and expanded a bit farther into this area. Any snow showers are expected to produce generally light snow but a quick burst of moderate snow is possible as this activity moves into our area, although a quickly depleting supply of moisture should lead to a downward trend in coverage and intensity by the time it reaches the far southern Texas Panhandle.
As for snow accumulations, the far southwest Texas Panhandle has the greatest chances of seeing a dusting of snow and possibly up to a half inch of snow if there is a quick burst of moderate snowfall.
The temperatures forecast for today is of relatively low confidence due to the anticipated effects from cloud cover. If clouds hang on through the evening, high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 30s and low-40s for most areas. Temperatures will plummet tonight as surface high pressures sets in, winds weaken, and skies clear. Lows will range from the teens in the southwest Texas Panhandle to the upper 20s in the southeast Rolling Plains.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
Key Messages:
- Seasonal temperatures with dry weather expected through Tuesday.
- Widespread cold and wet weather returns Wednesday with a slight chance of snow in the NW.
In the wake of todays cold front dry NW flow will develop over the region allowing temperatures to slowly warm into the 50s and 60s through Tuesday when the flow becomes more zonal. Each night lows will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s.
The weather dramatically changes Wednesday as a mid-level closed low begins to deepen near the Four Corners region and surface high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS. While there is finally some run-to-run continuity in the evolution of the closed low the big question that remains is what happens after the low forms.
Early this morning ensembles are favoring the closed low dropping south and moving eastward through the Desert South West. Main disagreement comes as to whether it tracks south through the EPZ CWA (GEFS) or stays further north and tracks through the ABQ CWA (EPS).
Nonetheless both scenarios allow for Gulf Moisture to be advected into the region ahead of the low. Global models continue to imply that precipitation will be possible starting as early as Wednesday morning and ending late Friday. Have held NBM PoPs, but have included a slight mention of very light snow in our far NW counties each night where 850mb temps fall to 0C with rain everywhere else.
With this event still 5-7 days out the expectation is that the overall forecast will remain in flux through at least Tuesday with QPF totals varying. Be sure to keep checking back for updates.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023
VFR conditions expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24 hours. A cold front will move through all three terminals this morning and north winds will increase to around 20 knots. There is a small chance that snow showers affect KPVW this morning but this activity is expected to remain north of the terminal. There is also a small chance that CIGs drop close to MVFR at KLBB and KPVW as the front moves through but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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