Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
July 3, 2024 12:33 AM CDT (05:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 3:06 AM Moonset 6:20 PM |
FXUS64 KLUB 022338 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper level shortwave will pass through northern portions of our area this evening. Combined with a somewhat-strong 850 mb LLJ, building instability today in mostly sunny skies, and modest mid- level moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms have been retained in the current forecast. The instability axis generally runs north and west of Lubbock and given the position of the aforementioned shortwave, greatest chances exist across the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Storms are not expected to be severe, but a few storms may produce strong winds and brief heavy downpours. A few showers may linger over the far southeast Panhandle this evening, however everything should mostly diminish after sunset. The pattern for Tuesday looks to be quite similar to that of today and the forecast remains almost identical, with only slightly higher chances to the northwest as another shortwave moves through that area. Triple-digit heat will continue Tuesday as well, albeit a degree or two cooler.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The majority of guidance suggests that gradually weakening t-storm and shower activity will linger across the area into Wednesday night, again with the best chances located across roughly the western and northern portions of the forecast area corresponding to proximity to lift from the upper trough and the narrow sub- tropical moisture plume. Then we turn our attention to the cold front dropping south through the High Plains Thursday which will usher in some cooler temperatures and better rain chances. The morning guidance is in pretty good agreement with previous runs that the front will be on the doorstep of our northern counties by 7pm Thursday evening. This means that our forecast area will be also to heat up one more day south of the front, so Thursday will still be hot with highs mainly in the middle 90s to about 103 or 104. As the upper-wave moves overhead, guidance has been fairly consistently showing isolated to scattered late day t-storms developing along the surface trough near the Texas-New Mexico state line with another area along the front in the central and southern Texas Panhandle. As the front progresses south through the forecast area Thursday evening, storm chances will increase/spread across the remainder of the forecast area. Right not this activity is expected to remain scattered in nature, however, lightning occurring with some storms could coincide with outdoor firework activities and possibly cause some delays.
We still expect Friday to the the coolest day in the 7-day forecast, with highs only in the 80s north of the front, although the extent of cloud cover and shower/t-storm activity is a bit of a question mark. There will be ample moisture and some large-scale ascent associated with the trough, but without our typical strong surface heating this time of year we could remain too stable for more than light showers.
Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend into early next week as an upper ridge amplifies up the West Coast. This should bring a period of relatively cool (near-average)
temperatures and keep rain chances going with several shortwaves passing through the northwest flow. There's even the possibility of another front around Monday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger at all TAF sites through the evening. Main threats with thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic winds, occasional cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall at times. Activity will begin to diminish just after sunset. Thereafter VFR conditions are expected to prevail. We could see shower activity continue through daybreak tomorrow at KPVW; however, confidence in this remains too low for a TAF mention.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 638 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
An upper level shortwave will pass through northern portions of our area this evening. Combined with a somewhat-strong 850 mb LLJ, building instability today in mostly sunny skies, and modest mid- level moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms have been retained in the current forecast. The instability axis generally runs north and west of Lubbock and given the position of the aforementioned shortwave, greatest chances exist across the far southwest TX Panhandle and northern South Plains. Storms are not expected to be severe, but a few storms may produce strong winds and brief heavy downpours. A few showers may linger over the far southeast Panhandle this evening, however everything should mostly diminish after sunset. The pattern for Tuesday looks to be quite similar to that of today and the forecast remains almost identical, with only slightly higher chances to the northwest as another shortwave moves through that area. Triple-digit heat will continue Tuesday as well, albeit a degree or two cooler.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The majority of guidance suggests that gradually weakening t-storm and shower activity will linger across the area into Wednesday night, again with the best chances located across roughly the western and northern portions of the forecast area corresponding to proximity to lift from the upper trough and the narrow sub- tropical moisture plume. Then we turn our attention to the cold front dropping south through the High Plains Thursday which will usher in some cooler temperatures and better rain chances. The morning guidance is in pretty good agreement with previous runs that the front will be on the doorstep of our northern counties by 7pm Thursday evening. This means that our forecast area will be also to heat up one more day south of the front, so Thursday will still be hot with highs mainly in the middle 90s to about 103 or 104. As the upper-wave moves overhead, guidance has been fairly consistently showing isolated to scattered late day t-storms developing along the surface trough near the Texas-New Mexico state line with another area along the front in the central and southern Texas Panhandle. As the front progresses south through the forecast area Thursday evening, storm chances will increase/spread across the remainder of the forecast area. Right not this activity is expected to remain scattered in nature, however, lightning occurring with some storms could coincide with outdoor firework activities and possibly cause some delays.
We still expect Friday to the the coolest day in the 7-day forecast, with highs only in the 80s north of the front, although the extent of cloud cover and shower/t-storm activity is a bit of a question mark. There will be ample moisture and some large-scale ascent associated with the trough, but without our typical strong surface heating this time of year we could remain too stable for more than light showers.
Northwest flow aloft will persist through the weekend into early next week as an upper ridge amplifies up the West Coast. This should bring a period of relatively cool (near-average)
temperatures and keep rain chances going with several shortwaves passing through the northwest flow. There's even the possibility of another front around Monday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger at all TAF sites through the evening. Main threats with thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic winds, occasional cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall at times. Activity will begin to diminish just after sunset. Thereafter VFR conditions are expected to prevail. We could see shower activity continue through daybreak tomorrow at KPVW; however, confidence in this remains too low for a TAF mention.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCDS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCDS
Wind History graph: CDS
(wind in knots)
Frederick, OK,
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