Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A frontal boundary has pushed into the northwestern half of the CWFA by lunchtime which continues to overperform on southward movement as compared to guidance. Given this tendency and the expansive area of shower activity across the Permian Basin, will keep the rain chances going in the southern Rolling Plains at least into the evening tapering thereafter as it is expected that the front will wash out and retreat with the warm air advection to the south and above the boundary. Overall, we're still expecting to see a shift of the activity from southeast to northwest during the afternoon persisting into the overnight hours. By in large, this should remain largely low-end convective with limited thunder potential though we are likely to be running quite close to the threshold of thunder with thin elevated MUCAPE being indicated in soundings. More than likely, residual precipitation after sunset will have an even harder time of managing enough energy for thunder and have removed mention of T overnight as the rain shield continues translating northwestward. Amounts are expected to remain quite light with sub quarter inch totals being the general trend with many areas receiving much less.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The extended is a far bit quieter with the persistent late summer/early fall warm and dry trend continuing save Thursday.
As mentioned in the synopsis, we'll see a bit of energy glance the area from the low up near KSLC and this could conceivably help to generate some storms out in the western counties. While this is not being handled in the NBM, both the GFS/ECM offer hints at the potential along the TX/NM state line. Once again, not a heavy sort of event with light QPF expected, but it is a shot at a little moisture. Temperatures largely look to remain in the 80s with lows in the 50s...running about 10 degrees warmer than seasonal norms.
There is some indication that by the middle of next week, we could see a change with the MJO being in phase two back in the end of September. That would hint at a front maybe a day or two beyond the end of this forecast period, Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Light rain showers are beginning to exit the region. Will run with VFR conditions through the period. The low-end mid level deck will lift northeastward with the rain showers leaving clearing skies.
Those clearing skies may set up the potential for some low cloud and/or fog development later tonight, although the models have no or only a weak signal for said development. Will leave mention out at this time, but the setup bears watch.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.