Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Crowell, TX
November 30, 2023 11:34 AM CST (17:34 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 5:28PM Moonrise 8:26PM Moonset 10:45AM
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 301152 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 552 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Quite a bit to consider this morning courtesy of a dynamic upper- level storm system currently over the Desert Southwest, speeding toward West Texas.
As of 2 am, low stratus has enveloped the entire forecast area as a 30-40 kt southerly LLJ advects moisture northward. So far, fog has remained mainly confined to the southwest South Plains, with Denver City currently reporting 1/2 mile visibility, while most other areas on the Caprock reporting only slight vsby reductions.
breaking up the forecast into several phases/concerns we have:
1) Fog this morning. High-res guidance has been quite persistent in progging the development of dense fog across much of the Caprock this morning. However, it did not do well with the early expansion of low stratus which kept/delayed temps from falling to near sfc saturation. Thus we have low confidence in the guidance details.
Additionally, with lift from the inbound system rapidly approaching, time is getting short before we start to see some rain shower development, which should help to mix up the lower atmosphere and further deter fog development. In short, it looks like the only area of concern for dense fog is across the western and southern South Plains, where T-Td spreads are currently only 0-3 degrees per the WTM...and perhaps as far north as Castro and Swisher Counties, where dewpoint depressions are similar.
2) Rain showers this morning. Satellite imagery is already picking up on a region of lift and mid-level cloudiness in NM, moving into West Texas. We should see scattered rain showers develop across the western and southwestern counties shortly, quickly moving northeast and likely moving into the southern Texas Panhandle by late morning.
Rainfall from these showers should be very light, generally only a few hundredths, perhaps a little more across the far southern Texas Panhandle.
3) The upper-level system moves northeast across the area during the afternoon and early-evening. This system will likely retain a closed- off low containing some pretty cold air...resulting in impressive mid-level lapse rates. As it moves by, we expect some additional, more convectively-forced activity to spread across the forecast area, at least the northern portions of it. Based on the current trajectory it looks like there may be a sharp cutoff to precipitation chances from the central counties into the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. We could see some thunder across our northern counties where up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may be realized closest to the cold core, and there might be some very small hail as well...but coverage of any t-storm activity is expected to be isolated. By early evening, the business end of the system will have shifted off to our northeast, and any precipitation should come to an end across the far southeast Texas Panhandle, leaving clearing skies and much cooler temperatures for tonight as dry surface ridging builds in.
4) The wind fields. The track of the 500 mb low across the Panhandle will take the core of the 700 mb jetmax across the Permian Basin this afternoon, with gusty winds developing across our southern and central counties as well. We could see some wind gusts up to 40 mph or so across our southwest counties, but for the most part the winds should remain below advisory speeds. We did add blowing dust to the forecast for our southern-most areas on the Caprock. Additionally, during the mid to late afternoon, a cold front will pass from northwest to southeast through the area, bringing a period of stronger winds from the northwest across most of our forecast area, although the winds should decouple quickly by 6 pm as the front moves into the Rolling Plains. Light winds are then expected tonight into Friday morning.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
A very quiet and dry long term period can be expected as the upper level system that moved through the area on Thursday quickly exited the region overnight. Northerly winds will begin to back out of the west by Friday afternoon as a surface low in the lee of the rockies develops. The surface low is expected to amplify out ahead of our next shortwave trough influencing breezy conditions with winds up to 20 mph expected, especially near the TX/NM state line. However, Saturday looks to be even breezier and has the best potential for portions of the forecast area to see winds around 25 mph as a 700 mb 50 knot jet begins to move overhead. Winds will begin to die off through the afternoon hours as the shortwave begins to exit the region.
Monday the upper level pattern looks to favor broad troughing across the central United States, where a weak cold front looks to track through the area. This dry front will not do much, if anything, for our temperatures with northerly winds bringing weak CAA. Other than that, the rest of the long term looks to be warm, possibly above normal seasonal temperatures as ridging begins to move overhead with temperatures in the 60s through the remainder of next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Low stratus will continue to bring IFR to LIFR CIGS at KPVW and KLBB through 15 or 16 UTC...when ceilings should gradually start to lift. Additionally, areas of fog may bring surface VSBY reductions in the same time frame. KCDS will likely see MVFR or IFR conditions through the morning. Isolated to scattered -SHRA in conjunction with a passing storm system may affect any of the terminals today, along with a small chance of -TSRA as well.
Westerly breezes will increase at KLBB, becoming sustained near 20 kts for a time this afternoon. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the northwest through KLBB and KPVW this afternoon, and KCDS around 6 pm. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this evening through the remainder of the night.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 552 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Quite a bit to consider this morning courtesy of a dynamic upper- level storm system currently over the Desert Southwest, speeding toward West Texas.
As of 2 am, low stratus has enveloped the entire forecast area as a 30-40 kt southerly LLJ advects moisture northward. So far, fog has remained mainly confined to the southwest South Plains, with Denver City currently reporting 1/2 mile visibility, while most other areas on the Caprock reporting only slight vsby reductions.
breaking up the forecast into several phases/concerns we have:
1) Fog this morning. High-res guidance has been quite persistent in progging the development of dense fog across much of the Caprock this morning. However, it did not do well with the early expansion of low stratus which kept/delayed temps from falling to near sfc saturation. Thus we have low confidence in the guidance details.
Additionally, with lift from the inbound system rapidly approaching, time is getting short before we start to see some rain shower development, which should help to mix up the lower atmosphere and further deter fog development. In short, it looks like the only area of concern for dense fog is across the western and southern South Plains, where T-Td spreads are currently only 0-3 degrees per the WTM...and perhaps as far north as Castro and Swisher Counties, where dewpoint depressions are similar.
2) Rain showers this morning. Satellite imagery is already picking up on a region of lift and mid-level cloudiness in NM, moving into West Texas. We should see scattered rain showers develop across the western and southwestern counties shortly, quickly moving northeast and likely moving into the southern Texas Panhandle by late morning.
Rainfall from these showers should be very light, generally only a few hundredths, perhaps a little more across the far southern Texas Panhandle.
3) The upper-level system moves northeast across the area during the afternoon and early-evening. This system will likely retain a closed- off low containing some pretty cold air...resulting in impressive mid-level lapse rates. As it moves by, we expect some additional, more convectively-forced activity to spread across the forecast area, at least the northern portions of it. Based on the current trajectory it looks like there may be a sharp cutoff to precipitation chances from the central counties into the southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. We could see some thunder across our northern counties where up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may be realized closest to the cold core, and there might be some very small hail as well...but coverage of any t-storm activity is expected to be isolated. By early evening, the business end of the system will have shifted off to our northeast, and any precipitation should come to an end across the far southeast Texas Panhandle, leaving clearing skies and much cooler temperatures for tonight as dry surface ridging builds in.
4) The wind fields. The track of the 500 mb low across the Panhandle will take the core of the 700 mb jetmax across the Permian Basin this afternoon, with gusty winds developing across our southern and central counties as well. We could see some wind gusts up to 40 mph or so across our southwest counties, but for the most part the winds should remain below advisory speeds. We did add blowing dust to the forecast for our southern-most areas on the Caprock. Additionally, during the mid to late afternoon, a cold front will pass from northwest to southeast through the area, bringing a period of stronger winds from the northwest across most of our forecast area, although the winds should decouple quickly by 6 pm as the front moves into the Rolling Plains. Light winds are then expected tonight into Friday morning.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
A very quiet and dry long term period can be expected as the upper level system that moved through the area on Thursday quickly exited the region overnight. Northerly winds will begin to back out of the west by Friday afternoon as a surface low in the lee of the rockies develops. The surface low is expected to amplify out ahead of our next shortwave trough influencing breezy conditions with winds up to 20 mph expected, especially near the TX/NM state line. However, Saturday looks to be even breezier and has the best potential for portions of the forecast area to see winds around 25 mph as a 700 mb 50 knot jet begins to move overhead. Winds will begin to die off through the afternoon hours as the shortwave begins to exit the region.
Monday the upper level pattern looks to favor broad troughing across the central United States, where a weak cold front looks to track through the area. This dry front will not do much, if anything, for our temperatures with northerly winds bringing weak CAA. Other than that, the rest of the long term looks to be warm, possibly above normal seasonal temperatures as ridging begins to move overhead with temperatures in the 60s through the remainder of next week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Low stratus will continue to bring IFR to LIFR CIGS at KPVW and KLBB through 15 or 16 UTC...when ceilings should gradually start to lift. Additionally, areas of fog may bring surface VSBY reductions in the same time frame. KCDS will likely see MVFR or IFR conditions through the morning. Isolated to scattered -SHRA in conjunction with a passing storm system may affect any of the terminals today, along with a small chance of -TSRA as well.
Westerly breezes will increase at KLBB, becoming sustained near 20 kts for a time this afternoon. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the northwest through KLBB and KPVW this afternoon, and KCDS around 6 pm. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this evening through the remainder of the night.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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