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FXUS64 KLUB 270858 AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 358 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Surface observations at 3 AM show a gradual westward retreat of the dryline to a position roughly along a line from Jayton to Paducah to Childress, with dewpoints progged to rise into the 60s across most of the eastern Rolling Plains through mid-morning. Water vapor and nighttime composite imagery also depict a zone of impressive positive 850mb theta-e advection along the nose of a strong nocturnal LLJ which is captured quite well by real-time RAP analysis as well as most hi-res models. Satellite imagery also highlights a broad fetch of midlevel moisture over El Paso quickly shifting eastward ahead of the core of an upper level low over the Four Corners region. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ early this morning over southeastern portions of the Caprock and southern portions of the Rolling Plains and spread northeastward through the remainder of the morning. Accelerating height falls ahead of the upper low have resulted in fairly steep midlevel lapse rates over this region with elevated parcel MUCAPEs potentially exceeding 3000 J/kg. This ample instability along with respectable effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support a threat for large hail over the Rolling Plains with this morning convection. Early-day convection will exit our area by midday as strengthening surface southwesterlies associated with a deepening surface low over the OK Panhandle shove the dryline further to our east. While solidly breezy on the Caprock, wind speeds look to remain just below advisory criteria.
Dry downsloping flow will result in elevated to critical fire danger across most of the Caprock, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle and western South Plains this afternoon and evening.

There is still significant uncertainty in this evening's forecast given the difficulty of pinpointing the eventual location of the dryline. Most solutions still place the dryline to the east of our forecast area this evening, though it is worth noting some models bring the dryline into the eastern Rolling Plains as surface flow backs across the Big County and western North Texas. If the dryline does indeed retreat into the eastern Rolling Plains and SE TX Panhandle, thunderstorm development would be possible along the dryline circulation itself, or later in the evening as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline. To account for this uncertainty, have maintained mentionable PoPs across most of the Rolling Plains this afternoon through late this evening. All severe hazards would be possible if these storms do materialize, with large hail being the primary threat. On the other hand, if the dryline does remain to our east, dry and breezy conditions will continue area-wide. Dry westerly breezes and slightly cooler conditions are then expected tonight in the wake of the Pacific front.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Pleasant end to the weekend in the wake of today's system. A lee low will develop through the afternoon across northeast New Mexico with light westerly surface winds and sunny skies giving way to highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The low will skirt across the northern portions of the forecast area Monday morning with the passing a passing shortwave trough aloft. A very shallow and weak surface front will shift winds briefly to the northwest but quickly return to the west southwest through the day. Thus, temperatures are not expected to be affected and highs will warm to above normal in the 80s. Mostly zonal westerly flow will return aloft Tuesday with downsloping surface winds and very warm temperatures in the lower 90s. A dryline will setup diagonally from southwest to northeast across the central portions of the forecast area. Breezy southwest winds and dry conditions may lead to elevated to critical fire weather concerns west of the dryline, mostly across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. East of the dryline dewpoints will range in the 40s to 50s, with southerly surface winds. The better axis of moisture and instability will be positioned across the eastern Rolling Plains where an isolated thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Southwesterly flow returns aloft through the remainder of the work week with a positively tilted trough axis digging into the Pacific Northwest. Warm downsloping southwesterly surface winds will give way to very warm temperatures again on Wednesday in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The dryline will once again setup over the area, but there are some inconsistencies with the exact location of the boundary. Depending on the postilion of the dryline, showers and thunderstorms are likely to return east of the boundary with a few strong to even severe storms possible. The surface low will translate eastward Wednesday night into Thursday with a very weak surface cold front to swing southward. However, the latest 00z runs have the front washing out in the southern Texas Panhandle as another lee low develops in northeast New Mexico. Daytime temperatures Thursday will heavily depend on how far south the weak front pushes. If the front moves farther south through the area, temperatures will remain near normal in the 80s. However, if the front washes out farther north then warm downsloping southwesterly surface winds will give way to the potential for temperatures warming into the 90s. Discrepancies creep up in the pattern aloft heading into Friday as models vary in evolution of the positively tilted trough axis over the Upper Rockies. All in all, there appears to be a 700mb cold front that dives south through the area, but the timing and strength rely heavily on the system aloft. Cooler and cloudy conditions are likely Friday, along with potentially the return of post frontal precipitation across the area into the weekend. Stay tuned for forecast updates with forecast trends likely to change due to model disagreement towards the end of next week.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this TAF period. LLWS will continue through the overnight hours at CDS as a strong low level jet develops, with some TS also possible near CDS during the hours near and just after sunrise. Some MVFR CIGs may also approach CDS this morning, but confidence in stratus is low at the terminal.
Otherwise, west winds will strengthen at all sites by mid/late morning with gusts near or just above 30 kt likely through most of the afternoon. There is a small chance of TS near CDS once again late this afternoon, but should remain well east of the terminal.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across the western South Plains and the far southwestern TX Panhandle. Here, sustained southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph along with minimum RH values in the low teens will support RFTI values of 4 to 6. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this area from 1 PM until 8 PM CDT.

Further east across the I-27 corridor, winds will be slightly weaker with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. ERC values are also slightly lower in this area given recent rainfall, higher fuel moisture, and more advanced spring green-up. Given these factors and RFTI values of 2 to 4, have opted for a Rangeland Fire Danger statement for the I-27 corridor, which is in effect from 1 PM until 8 PM CDT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning across most of the Rolling Plains, with thunderstorm chances returning this evening across the eastern Rolling Plains. West winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue tonight with RH recovery generally above 50 percent.

LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039.

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