Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX
December 11, 2023 6:20 AM CST (12:20 UTC)
Sunrise 7:41AM Sunset 5:39PM Moonrise 6:23AM Moonset 4:23PM
Area Discussion for - Lubbock, TX
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FXUS64 KLUB 111214 AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail today and tomorrow.
- Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday.
Today the upper level pattern will feature a gradual transition from northwest flow to quasi zonal. Meanwhile at the surface low pressure will give way to very weak high pressure resulting in west winds shifting to north and then to the east but remaining light across.
Outside of the wind shift, subsidence and lack of moisture will support another mostly sunny day with solar insolation at its max.
However, the northerly/easterly flow will aid in keeping temperatures from climbing too far above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain near average reaching the upper 50s and low 60s.
Tonight continued light winds and mostly clear conditions will lead to lows falling into the upper 20s on the Caprock and the low 30s off the Caprock.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
We are still on track for a widespread precipitation event beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday as a strong upper level low moves into West Texas. Models are in very good agreement that the entire forecast area will receive substantial rainfall so NBM PoPs of up to 95 percent have been maintained for Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 inch are looking increasingly likely with areas of over 2 inches possible especially in the Rolling Plains.
Southeast winds will lead to strong low-level moisture advection along with increasing mid and upper level moisture carried in by the upper level low resulting in a fully saturated atmospheric column.
PWAT values are forecast to exceed the climatological 90th percentile at both of our nearest balloon sounding sites in Amarillo and Midland which is usually a sign that flooding may become a concern especially if some areas of convective precipitation occur and produce locally higher rainfall rates. However, forecast instability parameters are low with models only showing up to around 200-300 J/kg of CAPE on Wednesday and Thursday but this could be sufficient for isolated pockets of convective precipitation and occasional thunder.
The long duration of this event (over 48 hours) should limit the threat of widespread flooding but localized flooding is certainly possible.
Temperatures will be cold enough that areas in the southwest Texas Panhandle and the northern South Plains will likely see a transition to snow or a rain/snow mix sometime between Thursday morning and Friday. Forecast high temperatures on Thursday and Friday are in the upper 30s and low 40s with lows near or below freezing in the southwest Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. The main uncertainty regarding this event will be the exact track of the center of the low which will mainly impact the potential for winter precipitation.
The last several ECMWF solutions take the center of the upper level low north of EL Paso which would favor more rain than snow while the last few GFS runs take the center through El Paso which is more favorable for snow. Confidence is low regarding where precipitation will change over to snow and how much snow may fall but this will become more clear in future forecasts when the exact track of the low becomes more certain. Forecast sounding indicate that precipitation will likely be only rain or snow with low chances of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitaion should come to an end from west to east by late Friday night into early Saturday morning as all lift exits the forecast area. Warming temperatures and dry weather are then expected over the weekend as upper air heights increase with highs in the 50s and low 60s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
VFR and FEW250 will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will initially be west at less than 7kts thru 16z. After winds will shift north and then settled NNE at 5-10kts.
12Z update forecast confidence is high on all elements.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
Key Messages:
- Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail today and tomorrow.
- Rain chances return to the forecast Wednesday.
Today the upper level pattern will feature a gradual transition from northwest flow to quasi zonal. Meanwhile at the surface low pressure will give way to very weak high pressure resulting in west winds shifting to north and then to the east but remaining light across.
Outside of the wind shift, subsidence and lack of moisture will support another mostly sunny day with solar insolation at its max.
However, the northerly/easterly flow will aid in keeping temperatures from climbing too far above normal for this time of year. High temperatures will remain near average reaching the upper 50s and low 60s.
Tonight continued light winds and mostly clear conditions will lead to lows falling into the upper 20s on the Caprock and the low 30s off the Caprock.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
We are still on track for a widespread precipitation event beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday as a strong upper level low moves into West Texas. Models are in very good agreement that the entire forecast area will receive substantial rainfall so NBM PoPs of up to 95 percent have been maintained for Wednesday night and Thursday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 inch are looking increasingly likely with areas of over 2 inches possible especially in the Rolling Plains.
Southeast winds will lead to strong low-level moisture advection along with increasing mid and upper level moisture carried in by the upper level low resulting in a fully saturated atmospheric column.
PWAT values are forecast to exceed the climatological 90th percentile at both of our nearest balloon sounding sites in Amarillo and Midland which is usually a sign that flooding may become a concern especially if some areas of convective precipitation occur and produce locally higher rainfall rates. However, forecast instability parameters are low with models only showing up to around 200-300 J/kg of CAPE on Wednesday and Thursday but this could be sufficient for isolated pockets of convective precipitation and occasional thunder.
The long duration of this event (over 48 hours) should limit the threat of widespread flooding but localized flooding is certainly possible.
Temperatures will be cold enough that areas in the southwest Texas Panhandle and the northern South Plains will likely see a transition to snow or a rain/snow mix sometime between Thursday morning and Friday. Forecast high temperatures on Thursday and Friday are in the upper 30s and low 40s with lows near or below freezing in the southwest Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. The main uncertainty regarding this event will be the exact track of the center of the low which will mainly impact the potential for winter precipitation.
The last several ECMWF solutions take the center of the upper level low north of EL Paso which would favor more rain than snow while the last few GFS runs take the center through El Paso which is more favorable for snow. Confidence is low regarding where precipitation will change over to snow and how much snow may fall but this will become more clear in future forecasts when the exact track of the low becomes more certain. Forecast sounding indicate that precipitation will likely be only rain or snow with low chances of sleet and freezing rain. Precipitaion should come to an end from west to east by late Friday night into early Saturday morning as all lift exits the forecast area. Warming temperatures and dry weather are then expected over the weekend as upper air heights increase with highs in the 50s and low 60s.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023
VFR and FEW250 will prevail for the TAF period. Winds will initially be west at less than 7kts thru 16z. After winds will shift north and then settled NNE at 5-10kts.
12Z update forecast confidence is high on all elements.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Lubbock, TX,
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