Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Matador, TX

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the upper level low positioned across the Desert Southwest with a beltway of strong southwesterly flow stretching from the Permian Basin all the way into portions of Central Oklahoma. Meanwhile the surface low looks to be parked over the far West Texas region with the dryline positioned just east of the TX/NM state line. Given this and the faster progression of the cold front this morning, with the front currently parked just south of the US-82 corridor, our area of most concern looks to be fixated across the southeastern Rolling Plains within the warm-moist sector. East of the dryline and south of the FROPA, satellite imagery depicts a developing CU field where he have already seen a few towers try to initialize on KLBB radar early this afternoon. As thunderstorms develop, especially within the area highlighted above, MLCAPE values up to 2500 to 3000 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes of 50 knots will allow for storms to quickly become severe with large hail up to baseball size and damaging winds to 80 mph possible. A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible with storms however given quick storm motions as depicted by forecast soundings give way to low confidence with this potential. Although storms look to be confined for areas east of the I-27 corridor, there is a chance as the upper level low moves closer to the region and we see better jet dynamics move in with an area of diffluence overhead will also lead to the potential for thunderstorms to initialize across portions of the South Plains late this evening.
One caveat to this happening would be the fact that the environment behind the front looks to be too stable, given the lingering low- level stratus throughout the morning and early afternoon limiting diurnal destabilization. With this, we expect these better jet dynamics moving overhead to influence an additional round of thunderstorms with hi-resolution guidance hinting at the organization of an MCS through the overnight period. PWATs are well above seasonal normals, as they have been the past week, which in addition with the modest mid-level ascent will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall during the overnight period. Given the recent rainfall, with some WTM stations off the Caprock showing 4 day rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches warrants and the potential for multiple rounds of precipitation within this area tonight, a Flood Watch which is in effect for areas off the Caprock from 1 PM this evening until 7 AM Wednesday.

As for Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning and afternoon as the upper level trough tracks slowly through the TX Panhandle region. Activity will begin to decrease through the evening, as storms begin to diminish from west to east as the upper level trough ejects east into the South Plains region. As for temperatures on Wednesday, we should be cooler thanks the cooler air mass brought to us by this afternoon FROPA in addition to the northerly component of the wind, expect highs in the 70s area-wide.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Relatively quieter weather is expected Thursday into mid weekend as most of the active weather resides in the short term. A cold front is progged to push into the region late Thursday under a weak upper ridge. This will help to cool temps Friday back into the 60s area wide despite the overhead ridge. Uncertainty remains in the proximately of the cold front when progged convection develops along it late Friday. The GFS has the front much closer than the ECMWF and brings relatively heavy rainfall to at least our southern zones. An upper low is still progged to amplify as it moves towards the Four Corners late Sunday. There is some agreement with the possibility of more active weather (convection) early to mid next week associated with the upper low. South to southeasterly winds will help retain moisture in the region. Temperatures will slowing rise into the mid/upper 70s by early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

IFR CIGs will continue through at least mid-morning on Wednesday at both KLBB and KCDS. The evolution of CIGs at KPVW is a bit more uncertain, with MVFR likely to prevail for a couple more hours before CIGs descend to IFR there as well. Later tonight, LIFR CIGs will become possible at all terminals with visibility reductions from BR/FG likely as well. Regarding precipitation chances overnight, TSRA are expected at KCDS over the next few hours, with a break in convection expected through much of the evening at KLBB and KPVW. Another round of TSRA appears likely at KLBB after 06z tonight, with yet another round of convection looking likely on Wednesday afternoon. Overall, the convective forecast is low confidence overnight and amendments should be expected.



LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ024>026-030>032- 036>038-042>044.