Lake Murray of Richland, SC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Murray of Richland, SC

May 27, 2024 9:44 AM EDT (13:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 11:43 PM   Moonset 8:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Murray of Richland, SC
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Area Discussion for - Columbia, SC
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FXUS62 KCAE 270744 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 344 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front today with temperatures remaining above normal. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through mid to late week as a high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The focus for today remains centered around the MCS moving through the TN Valley at this time and its potential impact on the environment later this morning into early afternoon before another round of convection is expected as a cold front approaches from the west. The ongoing MCS is forecast to cross the mtns during the predawn hours and gradually decay as it moves into the Midlands, but it should be noted that the hi-res guidance has struggled with the timing of this feature with even the updating HRRR still lagging behind the actual speed of it.
This means the MCS could move into our area earlier and dissipate earlier which may allow for the atmosphere to recover more and destabilize.

Hi-res CAM guidance shows generally scattered convection developing with locations being a bit different but a focus in the CSRA early afternoon. Convection is likely to initiate on whatever outflow boundary is left behind from the decaying morning convection and possible differential heating boundary created by debris clouds, so even 12 hours out there is limited confidence in where and when convection will initiate. However, the environment should be rich in moisture with ensemble PWATs around 130-150 percent of normal with values around 1.6-1.8 inches this afternoon ahead of the approaching front. This may support an isolated flood threat if there is training of storms.
Forecast soundings indicate a bit of a capping inversion albeit weak, and increasing upper support in the form of shortwave energy should help convection develop during the afternoon in an increasingly unstable environment, assuming the morning MCS does not disrupt this process. Hi-res guidance suggests MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg with 25-30 knots of deep layer shear supporting scattered convection that may try to organize a bit.

SPC continues to outlook the forecast area in a slight risk for day with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. Convection should shift eastward and dissipate over our area by 03z as 850mb winds shift more west to northwesterly as the trough axis shifts over the region with the cold front pushing through the region late tonight. Temperatures today are challenging and dependent on how much cloud cover exists through the day but will continue to advertise another warm day with highs ranging from the mid 80s western Midlands and upper CSRA to the lower 90s in the eastern Midlands. Overnight lows expected to range from the mid 60s west to around 70 east as the cooler and drier air behind the front reaches the western Midlands during the predawn hours.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A drier atmosphere moves in behind the departing front for Tuesday and Tuesday night with slight height rises and zonal flow aloft. The upper level trough to our north will remain quasistationary, however a lack of forcing and PW values falling below 1" by midday should keep things dry. Highs Tuesday afternoon will still be in the upper 80s to low 90s with little in the way of cloud cover. Overnight lows will be more seasonable in the low to mid 60s.

Little change in our sensible weather for Wednesday, except for some additional drying with PW values closer to 0.6"-0.7". Highs a few degrees cooler than Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s with nighttime lows in the low 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Broad upper trough generally remains to our north mid to late week as multiple disturbances rotate through the flow. The first discrepancy comes Thursday with the GFS bringing a shortwave through the southern stream and bringing a few showers to the CSRA while the EC remains dry. Friday, a weak but generally dry front will push through the area from the north. Behind that, high pressure will build in from the west as upper ridging replaces the trough that will finally move offshore for the weekend. Boundary layer flow becomes a bit more onshore by Sunday with some indication that moisture flux will be increasing. However, the GEFS mean keeps PW values around 0.75" through Sunday, with some increase toward about 1" Sunday night. Given some uncertainties late in the forecast period, kept close to NBM guidance which keeps us dry through Saturday before bringing in a slight chance of showers/storms on Sunday.

Dewpoints remain in the 50s in the extended period while temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s Thursday and Friday, which is near to or slightly below normal for late May. A few more degrees of warming follow for the weekend with high pressure ridging down the eastern seaboard. Overnight temperatures also get a reprieve with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s during this time.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions generally expected through the 24 hr forecast period with the exception of restrictions in scattered convection.

Satellite showing mostly clear skies across the region early this morning but a convective complex is moving into the TN Valley and will approach our area after sunrise bringing increasing clouds and possible showers or thunderstorms if it holds together over the mountains with limited confidence.

25-30 knot low level jet is keeping surface winds up around 5 to 7 knots out of the south through daybreak then winds increase to around 10 knots and become gusty late morning through the afternoon as a cold front approaches by this evening. It is unclear whether or not the convection arriving after sunrise will hold together but there is high confidence in increasing clouds mid morning with this feature and possibly some MVFR cigs at AGS/DNL so included a tempo group to cover that from 11z-15z.
Another round of convection is expected this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front but there is uncertainty given how the morning decaying convection impacts the environment to support afternoon convection, which appears to be scattered at this time, therefore carried VCSH for now until confidence increases for impacts at the terminals. Winds should diminish with sunset to around 5 knots from the southwest. The boundary layer remains well mixed overnight so fog is not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Monday evening in scattered thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the area. Otherwise, significant restrictions not expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 1 mi54 min WSW 14G18 78°F




Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KCAE COLUMBIA METROPOLITAN,SC 15 sm48 minW 14G2410 smOvercast81°F72°F74%29.91
KFDW FAIRFIELD COUNTY,SC 16 sm9 minWSW 08G1410 smOvercast75°F70°F83%29.95
KCUB JIM HAMILTON L B OWENS,SC 18 sm51 minWSW 11G1710 smClear81°F70°F70%29.92
KEOE NEWBERRY COUNTY,SC 24 sm29 minSSW 1110 smClear77°F73°F89%29.97
Link to 5 minute data for KCAE


Wind History from CAE
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina
   
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Bacon Bridge
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Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:17 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:02 PM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.8
1
am
2.1
2
am
2.2
3
am
2.1
4
am
1.8
5
am
1.4
6
am
1
7
am
0.6
8
am
0.3
9
am
0.1
10
am
0.2
11
am
0.7
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
1.7
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
1.4
5
pm
1.1
6
pm
0.8
7
pm
0.5
8
pm
0.2
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.7


Tide / Current for Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina
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Pimlico
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Mon -- 02:30 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:25 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
1.8
2
am
2
3
am
2
4
am
1.9
5
am
1.6
6
am
1.2
7
am
0.9
8
am
0.6
9
am
0.4
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.6
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.5
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
1.3
6
pm
1
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
0.4
9
pm
0.3
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Columbia, SC,




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