Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 11:12 PM   Moonset 7:46 AM

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FXUS62 KCAE 270733 CCA AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Columbia SC 333 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure will be over the region through Monday along with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a warming trend. A weak front is expected to bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly northern and eastern areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies across much of the area with partly cloudy in the eastern Midlands. Through daybreak expect the cloud to progress eastward with most of the forecast area mostly cloudy by daybreak. With the clouds already in place temperatures have been slow to cool and additional clouds will limit cooling over the next couple of hours. As a result have increased overnight low a degree or two with mid 50s to around 60.

Easterly flow will continue over the area today as the ridge of high pressure remains across east of the area along the coast with upper level ridging building over the eastern US. This will continue pushing moisture into the area and keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through today and into tonight. Main concern today is some guidance suggesting there could be a couple showers develop along the coast and move inland while the remainder of the guidance suggests near zero chance of showers.
With the cloud cover expected coupled with an inversion around 10 kft and some drier air in the mid levels have kept mention of showers out of the forecast however have increased pops through the afternoon just below slight chance. This evening with the loss of heating all potential for showers dissipates and some clearing is expected overnight. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with low tonight in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure and increasingly high heights will yield continued beautiful weather across the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected, but with southeasterly on-shore flow continuing, some fair weather cumulus is possible through the afternoon. Highs should only moderate a bit, largely owing to the surface & low- level high pressure system remaining to our northeast. Look for highs in the 79- 84F range for most, with overnight lows in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term continues to look very quiet, with high forecaster confidence in the pattern. Expectation is for meridional flow to continue to our west, becoming a bit more flat and zonal by early next week. As this happens, ridging will set up across the area and shift eastward as a weak cold front approaches on Tuesday & Wednesday. Very warm temperatures are expected to precede this feature, with the low-level flow veering out of the southwest as well. So a warm advection regime is likely by this point, and our highs should take a nice bump into the 87F-91F range Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers and storms are possible with that front on Tuesday night but confidence is not high enough to deviate from the slight chance PoPs that the NBM gave out. Speaking of the NBM, only made minor tweaks here and there. Ensembles are in great agreement, with GEFS 500 hPa IQR range very low especially for how complex the upstream pattern is.
So expected it to be warm and (mostly) dry through the end of next week.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low confidence in VFR conditions through the period.

Weak high pressure will be over the region through the period however moist easterly flow will continue. Current obs across the area show plenty of mid and upper level clouds and expect this to limit any fog development through sunrise. The moisture will also keep clouds across the terminals through the day with mainly VFR cigs however there are some indications of some MVFR cigs at a few points through the day. Confidence in MVFR cigs developing is low and plan to handle with a TEMPO group if necessary. Clouds will begin to lift this evening into tonight with mostly cloudy skies tonight again limiting fog potential.
Winds through the period will be easterly at 8 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in early morning fog or stratus each morning. Slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday onward.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sat -- 01:13 AM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:22 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:48 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,