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FXUS62 KCAE 301457 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC Issued by National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 957 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
After a cold start to the morning, a gradual warming trend begins today and continues into the weekend, though wedge conditions could hinder the warming trend some for the weekend.
Rain chances also increase starting Friday as a wetter airmass and multiple lows traverse the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1000 AM Update: No sigfnt changes were made to the going forecast. A few upward tweaks were made to sky cover to account for incoming SCT Ci across the srn zones. Temperatures and dewpoints are right inline with the fcst curve. Still expect max temps in the low 60s.

Currently, upper air analysis indicates some weak ridging ha moved overhead just ahead of daybreak. Meanwhile, surface observations show high pressure is in control over the region, leading to generally clear skies with the exception of spotty cirrus clouds. Temperatures as of 6 am are in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Today: The upper ridge to our west is expected to translate across the region through the day, leading to some rising heights. At the surface, high pressure should dominate the day, but the center of the high is expected to move offshore, allowing winds to shift to the south during the daytime hours.
In addition, some warm air advection is anticipated through the day. Outside of some scattered cirrus clouds, skies should be generally fair. All of these factors will likely lead to warmer temperatures this afternoon as highs are expected to top out around 60F.

Tonight: The upper ridge is forecast to slide to our east overnight, leading to southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is expected to move from the southern Plains into the Ohio River Valley. An associated frontal boundary is forecast to move through the southern portions of the CONUS.
Latest hi-res guidance continues to slow down the arrival of this boundary and precipitation to the Midlands and CSRA. The NBM and HRRR PoPs have followed suit as well. Thus, have kept mention of any precipitation out of the forecast grids through the overnight and early morning hours. However, despite many models delaying the arrival of the precipitation, there is a low chance (<10%) of showers arrive near daybreak in the upper CSRA. Temperatures overnight should be milder, near 40, due to cloud cover associated with the incoming frontal boundary and continued warm air advection.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Friday is when the changes begin to re-enter the forecast in the way of increasing rain chances. Guidance appears to be backing off on the initial timing of any onset of rainfall entering the cwa during the morning, and will start the day off dry everywhere. Can not rule out some light showers just west of the northern CSRA, but better chance of seeing isolated light rain occurs late morning across the western counties as upper energy passes off to the north of the region. Even during the afternoon hours, latest guidance shows limited rain chances over much of the forecast area, with highest rain chances across the western areas. Day starts off with wedgelike conditions, but those may be breaking down late in the day and into the overnight hours. Highs across the east around 70, with highs across the west in areas still in the wedge may only reach to around 60.

Wedge continues to break Friday night as the warm front moves through. This will also bring better rainfall to the region as better moisture and isentropic lift moves in. Coverage increases, with likely pops forecast at this time. Overnight lows milder than past several nights, with lows mainly in the 50s.

Saturday and Saturday night should see the highest rain chances during the weekend as a cold front begins approaching from the west, and an area of low pressure moves along the front during the period. Moisture increases continue east of the surface low through the day with strong southerly winds. Likely pops in the morning increasing to categorical pops during the afternoon continue to seem quite reasonable. Rain chances continue into the overnight hours as the front and low move even closer to the forecast area. Periods of heavy rainfall possible during this time period, with amounts ranging from around 3/4 of an inch over the northern counties, to between 1.5 to 2 inches across the western CSRA.

Plenty of clouds and warm advection will bring afternoon highs into the mid to upper 60s, with overnight lows for Saturday night in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Rain chances may continue Sunday as the front moves through during the day, with lingering light rain possible Sunday night behind the front. Rain may move out quicker if the front moves through faster and drier air pushes in earlier. Remainder of the forecast period should become dry and cooler.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

However, AGS has been reporting some fog and low ceilings, likely river induced, which may continue through about 13z.

Dry high pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
Light and variable to calm winds are expected to become south to southeast around 5 knots or less after 16z. Winds are expected to diminish to light and variable once again after about 00z. Scattered high clouds are anticipated through the day becoming more broken to overcast after 00z. Mid level clouds are expected to move over AGS and DNL around 09z and spread eastward, possibly reaching the other terminals by the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Thursday night. There is potential for restrictions associated with showers Friday through the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.

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Bacon Bridge
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Thu -- 12:03 AM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:27 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EST     Moonrise
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Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Thu -- 12:46 AM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:10 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:00 PM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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