Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Murray of Richland, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Fair and dry air mass persists with slightly below temperatures tonight

A beautiful day is unfolding under the influence of high pressure with satellite imagery showing generally clear skies across the forecast area with some fair weather cumulus developing in the Coastal Plain. Temperatures continue to rise through the 70s to around 80 under sunny skies. Tonight, mostly clear skies expected under high pressure and strong radiational cooling should support lows again in the low to mid 50s.



SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Message(s):

- Dry and warm high pressure will fill into the region through Wednesday.

Offshore high pressure and southerly flow into the area will continue the dry pattern, but with steadily warming temps.
High's both Tuesday and Wednesday will climb into the mid 80's but plenty of subsidence aloft will mitigate any precip chances.
NAEFS and EC members have trended slightly cooler with this airmass as we have approached, but still 90th percentile for both temps and heights.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message(s):

- Deep ridging breaks down on Friday as a front moves through with cooler and dry air to follow for next weekend.

- Strong to severe scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday with this frontal passage.

Thursday looks to be the last day of the strong ridge pattern, with the GEFS and EC all holding the trough and frontal passage off until Friday. A few diurnal showers and storms are expected Thursday as slow and steady low level warm moist advection helps overcome the still strong subsidence aloft. For Friday, relatively strong mid-upper level forcing will shift over the region ahead of a trough digging into the Ohio Valley. In the prefrontal trough, some scattered showers and storms are expected in the afternoon-evening. Despite increasing cloud cover, height falls aloft and abundant low level moisture will still yield sufficient instability with LREF mean CAPE around 1000 J/kg. Shear with the parent shortwave aloft will not be strong, but should be enough to support some marginal organization; combining this together and you get why the CSU probs have consistently showed a marginal risk for Friday into Saturday morning. While some of the guidance has the trough and front becoming more diffuse into Saturday and slowing further, cooler and drier air will eventually push into the region by Saturday afternoon.



AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the period although there is a low chance of restrictions in morning fog/stratus at AGS/DNL.

Dry high pressure over the area is resulting in mostly clear skies with just some fair weather cumulus developing east of the terminals. Winds are from the east around 10 knots and should persist around 5 to 10 knots through sunset before diminishing to light and variable to calm overnight. As the surface high shifts offshore low level flow from the southeast will allow some moisture return and could result in some morning stratus.
Current guidance keeps most of the stratus southwest of the AGS/DNL area but there is a chance some brief period of stratus develops in the 12z-15z time frame so included a TEMPO group for this. Also, fog prone AGS may have its typical intermittent vsbys restrictions due to river fog but confidence is limited and therefore have left out of this forecast. Winds pick back up by 15z from the southeast around 5 to 8 knots with some possible cirrus arriving from the west.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions will generally prevail, but some restrictions are possible in scattered convection late in the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.