Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 8:05 AM   Moonset 11:30 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 120001 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 801 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure keeps the area dry through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The high then moves offshore Monday and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Cool, dry air remains over the forecast area in the near term with GOES16 derived PWAT values showing 0.6 to 0.7 inches. A dry, reinforcing front will move through the region tonight keeping low level winds up and preventing ideal radiational cooling conditions. Even with a 15 to 20 kt low level jet, we will see temperatures drop into the 50s tonight, near or a few degrees below normal. The dry air and mixing will prevent fog despite a clear or mostly clear sky.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to ridge over the forecast area Sunday with heights rising as weak upper ridging to the west shifts over the forecast area. This will lead to temperatures a few degrees warmer for Sunday which will be the only noticeable difference in weather for tomorrow compared to today. Low temperatures also expected to be a degree or two warmer but still remaining in the mid 50s.

Monday, an upper low pressure system over the Four Corners region will eject and push across the CONUS. This will lead to increasing southwesterly flow with strong moisture transport in the upper and mid levels as PWATs increase through the day. This will lead to increasing clouds, first over the CSRA and then into the rest of the forecast area. As a result, expect cooler highs in the CSRA, in the mid-70s and low 80s, in the eastern portion of the area. Forecast soundings do indicate a layer of near surface dry air and so while isentropic lift is expected to increase towards the end of the day on Monday, any precipitation should be light. With isentropic lift increasing overnight Monday, rain chances will continue to increase.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ensemble suites show high probability (around 80 percent) that by Tuesday PWATs will increase to above an inch and a half. With a fairly robust shortwave moving through the area, expect widespread showers, although there is some question as to the exact evolution as models are indicating some drier air behind this shortwave and uncertainty to its timing as it will result from the ejection from the previously mentioned upper low. As far as an ingredient perspective, there remains at least some concern of the potential for severe weather, especially across the southern area where there is higher potential for destabilization but the overall shear profile would support organized storms. As we start to approach the timing for convective allowing models, there is also the potential for an upstream MCS to develop in the Deep South and move east, riding along the highest instability near the Gulf Coast, which may miss us to the south.
While some drier air likely moves in Wednesday, ensemble means indicate moisture remains high enough to support scattered showers and storms, especially in the Pee Dee. Brief ridging expected to build back in briefly Thursday before another moisture surge expected Friday with LREF probability showing highest probability of destabilization in the CSRA.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Weak high pressure along with dry air will be over the region through the TAF period. Strato-cu which developed this afternoon are quickly dissipating with sunset and expect clear skies overnight with some cumulus developing after 14z which will again be vertically limited. With an inversion developing over the area winds will be light and variable through 14z then become northerly at 5 to 8 knots through the end of the period.
With the dry air over the region and a 20 knots low level jet overnight fog development is not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions are possible late Monday through Wednesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sat -- 01:34 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:02 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pimlico
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Sat -- 02:17 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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