Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 3:33 PM   Moonset 3:11 AM

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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 256 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 18 seconds. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 16 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft and S 3 ft. Wed - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 256 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1030 mb surface high was centered 1200 nm northwest of point conception. A 1003 mb low was centered in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 180954 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 254 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
18/245 AM.

A stagnant May Gray pattern will continue through most if not all of next week. Low clouds with occasional drizzle and temperatures well below normal will dominate the coastal side of the mountains. Generally clear skies with gusty onshore winds and temperatures around normal will be the norm on the interior side.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/245 AM.

Little change expected over the weekend. Typical high pressure aloft with stronger than normal onshore pressure gradients will maintain a healthy May Gray marine layer pattern. Low clouds will continue to push well into the coastal slopes with poor afternoon clearing near many coastal areas and some coastal valleys. Some drizzle should be expected over portions of the area each morning, especially from Santa Barbara through Malibu. The clearing pattern each day will likely have some differences that are impossible to predict, but the general gloomy story overall is locked in. The onshore gradients will also fuel breezier than normal onshore winds over the interior areas, strongest over the Antelope Valley with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range common each afternoon and evening. Not expecting the need for any Wind Advisories. This downsloping flow and high pressure aloft will maintain temperatures at or just above normal over the interior areas. The high clouds that we are seeing right now will quickly depart to the northeast by mid-morning Saturday.

On Monday a weak low pressure system, currently centered 1000 miles west of Los Angeles, will pass through extreme southern California will drawing a deeper trough passing through the northwest states down closer to California. This will bring some noticeable changes. Temperatures will drop to below normal for the interior areas. Coastal and valleys areas will also drop a few degrees, and will likely see an even deeper marine layer and more drizzle. Low clouds could even push into some interior valleys like Cuyama and the Antelope Valley. Southern Santa Barbara County and western Ventura County would be the one exception, as increasing northwest flow will likely bring an area of low cloud clearing in the morning or early afternoon. This would locally counteract the cooling factor there, and form a coastal eddy to the east. There is chance that the marine layer grows too deep to support itself, with more clearing than we have been seeing overall by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/252 AM.

As the aforementioned low pressure system moves to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, this will weaken the onshore pressure gradients and flow (LAX-DAG predicted to go from +6 millibars Monday morning to +2 millibars on Tuesday). This should cause the marine layer to lower some and not push as far inland as it has been. The northwest flow over Santa Barbara County and the northern mountains will also continue to make low clouds over southern Santa Barbara and western Ventura Counties less favorable. As a result, Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the warmest over coastal and valleys areas over the last week or two with coastal temperatures starting to sniff normal values. Beyond that there is a fair amount of uncertainty. Several of the ensemble members show further warming to close out the week, while a significant amount show onshore flow strengthening and the marine layer expanding once again. The most likely outcome is a return to conditions like we have been seeing by Thursday or Friday of next week, with cool and cloudy conditions on the coastal side of the mountains, with warmer than usual and breezy conditions over the interior.

AVIATION
17/2351Z.

At 2350Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3000 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

Overall for the 00Z TAF package, high confidence for desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with flight category changes with the marine layer stratus.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR to VFR cigs expected through much of the forecast period. Any east wind component on Saturday morning is expected to be 6 kt or less. There is a 20 percent chance of clearing on Saturday afternoon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected through early Saturday afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of no clearing on Saturday afternoon.

MARINE
17/1033 PM.

For the Outer Waters, generally high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Sunday, SCA level winds will develop across PZZ670 then spread into PZZ673/676 Monday through Wednesday with the potential for SCA level seas also.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Sunday through Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the area, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels tonight through Wednesday. However across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Santa Monica
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Sat -- 01:30 AM PDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:06 AM PDT     3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:00 PM PDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM PDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM PDT     Sunset
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Santa Monica
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Sat -- 01:28 AM PDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM PDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:56 PM PDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:29 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:51 PM PDT     Sunset
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Santa Monica, California, Tide feet

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