Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Silver Lake, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

2) Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

3) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through Wednesday, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

As low pressure and shortwave track up from the Gulf on Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will build up the Southeast coast. This will push H5 heights up close to 590 dem and 850 temps up as high as 20c. The increased SW to W flow will also help to bring increased moisture up from area of low pressure over the Gulf coast. This will all lead to unseasonably hot and humid conditions Thursday with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for a good portion of the area, especially over SE NC east of I-95 and coastal SC. As tropical moisture streams over the area, the clouds may cut into the daytime heating, but guidance has been persistently showing potential for surpassing heat advisory thresholds Thursday aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

Decent shortwave tracking up from the Gulf coast associated with area of low pressure late Thursday into Thursday night and then an approaching cold front could all lead to some severe storms late Thursday through Friday. The main severe threat is damaging winds but tornadoes will also be possible, especially if the area of low pressure (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 1) also moves through the area. However, confidence is low due to uncertainty regarding the strength/track/timing of the possible low pressure system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycle late this evening, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

High astronomical tides along with persistent positive tidal anomalies will lead to minor tidal flooding during the evening high tide cycle this evening along the entire coast, including the lower reaches of the Cape Fear River. Minor tidal flooding is possible again during the Wednesday evening high tide cycle, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Despite current VFR conditions, expect to see deteriorating flying conditions overnight due to the development of low clouds and intermittent light rain or showers. The thunder threat remains too low to mention for now. Have maintained no worse than MVFR cigs for now but IFR cigs are possible into early today, mainly at KLBT/KFLO. Conditions should improve after 18Z Wednesday.

Extended Forecast...expect mainly VFR Wed night through Thu. An approaching stronger cold front along with a potential low pressure system and tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night into Sat due to more plentiful showers/storms. VFR expected Sat night/Sun.

MARINE
Tonight through Sunday...A weak area of low pressure and lingering cold front will lift north and dissipate as Atlantic high pressure becomes dominant. A decent pressure gradient will result in wind gusts near Small Craft Advisory levels at times through tonight. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system Thursday through Friday should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters and potential for gales in the offshore waters, mainly north of Cape Fear. However, confidence remains low as much depends on the strength/timing of possible low pressure.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.