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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1005 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft this afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming W 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1005 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hazardous conditions will develop today and peak tonight as a strong storm system affects the waters. Conditions will then improve through Monday as high pressure builds back into the area and maintains control through the week.

FXUS62 KILM 101726 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1225 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds through tonight. High pressure will then build in for most of the week bringing cool and dry weather once again. Rain chances could increase this weekend due to a possible storm system to the south.

UPDATE
No major changes from the ongoing forecast with this update.
Only made a few tweaks to reflect latest conditions. Still expecting on and off showers and isolated thunderstorms today into tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Very active near-term period is in store as a sharpening mid-upper trough pivots across the area tonight. Warm/moist advection and convergence associated with a coastal trough will bring passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to areas mainly near and north of Cape Fear for much of the day and through this evening until a band of pre-frontal convection pushes through tonight.
Further inland, a lack of forcing will preclude much shower activity through the morning and midday timeframe. During the afternoon and going through the evening, a pre-frontal convergence zone or two will bring increasing shower coverage along with a low chance for thunderstorms, a few of which could produce locally damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted mainly the Cape Fear region in a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather, with the remainder of the region in a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) as of early this morning. These areas may be refined through the day as the environment evolves. Overall, we think the severe storm risk will remain limited given the low-level stabilization due to southerly winds off the cool Atlantic Ocean.

Going into the first half of the night, a band of convection just ahead of the front in tandem with a strong low-level jet will likely bring a period of gusty winds of 40-50 mph. In addition, the potential will exist for strong to locally damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph and possibly a tornado if a mesovortex and/or bow echo develops within the pre-frontal band of convection. The gusty winds will subside as the front and its associated rain tracks east. Unseasonably warm conditions will precede this front, with highs expected to reach the lower 70s, and some mid-70s possible inland, where somewhat more sunshine is expected. Behind the front, strong cold/dry advection will knock temps back into the low 40s, with upper 30s possible in the far western zones near and west of I-95. Skies should largely clear out by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Confidence: Moderate to High

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool, dry surface high pressure will prevail as the deep upper trough lifts off to the northeast and becomes replaced by more zonal flow. Highs should mainly be in the lower to mid 50s each day with lows generally in the 20s/30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Confidence: Moderate to High through Friday; Low to Moderate starting Friday night

Main Highlights/Concerns: None

Details: Cool and dry surface high pressure will prevail through at least Friday. A trough could develop offshore Friday night as well as low pressure farther to the south which could bring some showers back to the area but confidence is lower regarding these systems.
Highs should mostly below normal in the 50s until Saturday when there is a better chance of getting back to normal in the lower 60s. Low temps should stay below normal, generally in the 20s/30s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Active TAF period with increasing shower coverage through the afternoon bringing temporary MVFR to possibly IFR cigs/vis at times to the coastal terminals. Frontal band of heavy showers and gusty winds will affect the inland terminals this evening with a sharp wind shift and IFR to potentially LIFR cigs and vis accompanying the front. This band will approach the coastal sites around midnight, bringing similarly poor vis/cigs, and a brief period of SSWly LLWS as a strengthening low-level jet passes overhead. Rapid improvement will sweep from west to east behind the front with conditions returning to VFR inland by 12Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR predominantly expected as high pressure dominates through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Deteriorating marine conditions are in store as a strong cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a coastal trough will continue to produce shower activity over the coastal waters through the day. Winds of 15-20 kts are expected outside of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms. A period of gale-force wind gusts are expected to accompany the arrival and passage of the cold front during the couple hours on either side of midnight with a sharp wind shift to westerly taking place as well. A Gale Warning has been raised to account for this. Waves will rise through the day and peak in the 6-9 ft range just ahead of the cold front , coming from the south with a period of 7-8 sec. After winds turn westerly, seas will gradually subside through the remainder of the night, although they should still be in the 4-7 ft range by sunrise on Monday.

Monday through Thursday: Moderate to high confidence this period.
Hazardous conditions are expected into Monday behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions should end later in the morning or in the early afternoon. Building high pressure will then bring fairly benign marine conditions through Wednesday before it strengthens and causes a tighter pressure gradient starting Wednesday night. The persistent N/NE winds will also lead to building seas and another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent and strengthening southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front will lead to a considerable tidal anomaly on the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington. At this time, it appears the peak surge should occur during the low tide cycle around 07 UTC tonight.
However, as the tidal anomaly grows, minor flooding may occur around the time of high tide this evening.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

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Campbell Island
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Sun -- 12:51 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:35 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:51 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Orton Point
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Sun -- 12:38 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:22 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:02 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Orton Point, North Carolina, Tide feet

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