Wednesday, February19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:59PM Wednesday February 19, 2020 9:13 AM EST (14:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 902 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft this afternoon. Rain late this morning and early afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Thu night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain through the day.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the night.
AMZ200 902 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will drop south across the area Wednesday with ne winds and building seas reaching sca conditions by afternoon. Low pressure will develop offshore from the carolina coasts Thu and will rapidly intensify as it accelerates ne away from the mainland Thu night thru Fri. Gale conditions likely late Thu thru Fri with storm conditions offshore. Cold canadian high pressure will follow late Fri through the upcoming weekend with winds and seas subsiding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 191046 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 546 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will drop south across the area today with continued wet conditions along with an influx of colder air. The front will stall south of the area tonight allowing a brief period of drying and even colder air to infiltrate the region. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore from the Carolina Coasts Thu and rapidly intensify as it accelerates NE, away from the Carolina mainland Thu night into Fri. A cold rain under breezy conditions is expected Thu, along with the possibility of pcpn mixing with and changing to snow before ending Fri morning. Cold, dry Canadian high pressure will follow Fri aftn thru the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sfc cold front is slowly dropping southward across the FA at the moment, and should push entirely thru the fcst area and off the Carolina coasts by the mid-daytime morning hrs. The showery nature to the pcpn ahead of the cold front will become stratiform oriented with post cold frontal light rain prevailing well into this aftn before temporary drying conditions occurs this evening into the overnight hrs. Overrunning light rain will breakout Thu morning and will become more steady as the day progresses with moderate to possibly heavy rain across most of the FA, especially east of the I-95 corridor. Have increased the QPF from the previous fcst and is now more in line with WPC guidance. No frozen or freezing issues this period.

Todays high temps will actually occur during the Wed pre-dawn hrs. A slow steady drop of temps will occur today, after the initial drop from the CFP. Lowered vsbys across the area due to fog this morning will improve dramatically after the cold front pushes thru. Any residual sea fog will also be eradicated due to the airmass change. Temps tonight thru Thu will trend to the lower side of MOS guidance with some entrainment from the sub 1050 mb high centered across the mid-section of the U.S.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Thursday night, the low pressure system that develops along the cold front will quickly mature. This will lead to heavy rainfall developing across the area spreading from south to north throughout the night. The biggest question with this system continues to be the potential for wintry weather overnight Thursday into early Friday. With the latest development in the model roulette, the cold front that sets the stage for the developing low pressure does not push as far south in most global modes. This is likely due to the NW displacement of the necessary cold air with the Arctic high pressure over the central US. As a result, the modeled center of the low is quite a bit closer to the coast in both the GFS and ECMWF. The NAM is not being considered at the moment due to its known high biases with cold air and over-exaggerated QPF.

There are some subtle differences that are worth noting as the solutions lead to significant difference in possible snowfall accumulations. The latest ECMWF model run shows the low off the coast, but slightly closer than previous model runs. This brings a stronger warm nose over the region, but does increase available moisture. A likely result in this scenario would be rain to rain/sleet to a brief period of snow. Those that transition to snow quickly will obviously see more accumulating snowfall, but the ECMWF continues to be the pessimistic solution. The GFS has also shifted further toward the coastline. However, the system tracks further to the north after 00Z Friday as compared to its Euro counterpart. This would give us a chance of seeing snow toward the end of the event as cold air is funneled southward with slightly more moisture in place. This solution could lead to a better chance of our SC folks seeing some snow before this all ends. For our forecast, we are a bit on the pessimistic side of things as the warm nose tends to move a bit further inland than the models show. The trend toward the coastline is a bit concerning for snow-lovers in the Cape Fear region and points southward. However, if there is some hope for seeing at least some flurries and spurts of light snowfall, the cold air will push the dendritic growth zone lower in the atmosphere as the low pulls away in either solution. This will occur while lingering moisture thins in the low-levels of the atmosphere, but this is likely to be slower than the advecting cold air. This temperature zone is critical for ice development and should allow for a few lingering flurries as the low exits. We will continue to monitor for specifics with upcoming model runs as a shift of 50 miles could drastically change the forecast at this stage, stay tuned!

Clearing behind the low pressure on Friday with highs struggling to make it to near 40. Very cold conditions on Friday night. The high pressure over the central US will shift eastward and winds will decrease to below 3-7 knots. Agricultural concerns will be the primary focus as lows drop into the mid-20s. This is assuming no snow accumulation which could lead to even colder low temps.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure modifies during the day on Saturday and moves overhead. Saturday will be dry and clear. Clear and quiet conditions last into Sunday with moderating conditions on Sunday; highs near 60. Overnight Sunday, clouds increase as a low pressure develops over the central part of the US. This will push a warm front through the area and rain chances increase quickly during the day on Monday. Models are currently differing on the timing of this low pressure system, so will stay with a chance of rain at the moment. Cold front moves through the day on Tuesday but not much in the way of temperature changes. Warm and humid air mass will keep highs above normal. Another warm front on Tuesday night will bring more clouds and rain chances in a repeat performance. Continued warm temps and cloudy skies into Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Light rain covers most of the CWA as a cold front drops slowly southward. VFR ceilings will become IFR after daybreak as winds shift to the north, becoming gusty by midday. Most of the IFR ceilings will mix out as some drier air moves in at the lower levels this afternoon. Mainly MVFR conditions tonight.

Extended Outlook . MVFR/IFR conditions become entrenched across the area terminals from the pre-dawn Thu hrs thru Fri morning. Low pressure to develop on the stalled front offshore from the Carolina Coasts Thu and intensify as it accelerates ENE away from the Coast Fri. Rain to mix with or change to snow Thu night before pcpn ends Fri morning. Conditions improve to VFR midday Fri, and will persist thru the weekend as cold, dry Canadian high pressure prevails.

MARINE.

Today thru Thu: Gale Watch has been raised for Thu aftn thru Fri for all waters. OPC is going with Storm Warnings for the Offshore Waters from Hat to Murrells Inlet.

Cold front dropping south will push across the area waters by mid to late daytime morning. Variable winds around 10 kt will become N to NE 15 to 25 kt after the CFP. A tighten sfc pg after FROPA will consume the area waters with some further tightening late tonight thru Thu. This the result of a sfc low taking shape and intensifying offshore from the SC Coast. Function in the continued and re-enforcing shots of CAA with the end result in sustained Gale Force winds developing Thu aftn and persisting into Thu night and early Fri. Winds generally from the NE tonight into Thu and could back slightly to N at the end of this fcst period due to the positioning and intensification of the offshore Low.

Thu Night thru Sun: Low pressure to the south and high pressure to the NW will lead to increased winds 20-30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots late Thursday into Friday. Wave heights will increase to 6-10 feet as a result. Low pressure moves away from the area during the day on Friday and winds slowly decrease as the high pressure to the west builds overhead. Winds become 10-20 knots Friday night into Saturday. Gale conditions are likely to subside by mid-day Saturday. High pressure overhead will make for calm conditions Saturday and Sunday. Unsettled weather returns early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . DCH/JLB NEAR TERM . DCH SHORT TERM . 21 LONG TERM . 21 AVIATION . 43 MARINE . DCH/21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi56 min 60°F 55°F1021 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi56 min 61°F 55°F1020.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi66 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 55°F1020.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi34 min 55°F2 ft
41108 29 mi44 min 56°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi66 min NNW 7.8 G 12 58°F 62°F1019.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi66 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 56°F1021.8 hPa
41119 35 mi84 min 56°F1 ft
SSBN7 36 mi52 min 1 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi81 minNW 77.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1020.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi79 minN 010.00 miOvercast61°F59°F96%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW3SW4S4S4SE3SE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W5W6W7NW7NW7
1 day agoNE86N33NE6NE5SE8SE6E4E4E3E4E7--NE6NE3N5NE5CalmCalmNE4NE6N3Calm
2 days agoE4E4E5--CalmE5SE4E3E5E4N6NE4NE5NE4NE4N8N8N8N5CalmN4N6N6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:42 AM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:32 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:57 PM EST     3.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.51.52.53.33.943.62.92.31.70.80.10.10.81.82.63.33.53.22.51.81.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:30 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM EST     4.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 01:17 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:22 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:42 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-00.81.92.93.74.24.23.732.31.60.70.10.31.12.133.63.73.32.51.81.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.