Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:57PM Sunday August 18, 2019 3:42 AM EDT (07:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:56PMMoonset 8:12AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 315 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 am edt this morning...
Today..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of tstms early. A chance of showers early this morning. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 315 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A stationary front will linger just inland from the coast today, before finally dissipating as high pressure remains offshore early to mid this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 180644
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
244 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
A front will meander across the carolinas through Monday before
slowly weakening into a surface trough. A cold front will move
in from the northwest on Friday and will stall along the coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more scattered in nature for
the next few days.

Update
Forecast appears to be in good shape. Rain is likely over for
the western half of the area. Meanwhile areas along the coast
will have rain return after this brief lull as low pressure
currently over savannah river moves up the coast. 18z WRF hits
the CAPE fear region pretty hard and kltx storm total rainfall
shows this has been where the heaviest rain has occurred thus
far. Short fused flood advisories appear likely overnight-but
cannot rule out ff watch should upstream convection start
congealing towards the WRF solution.

Near term through Monday
Main concern for the next 36 hours is the potential for heavy rain
in developing showers and thunderstorms.

Stationary front positioned over the carolinas has remained
unchanged in position from 24 hours ago and is expected to change
very little into Sunday with plenty of atmospheric moisture present,
leading to humid conditions with chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly along and east of i-95, with coastal areas
along the highway 17 corridor having an increased chance for
precipitation. Model forecasts are in good agreement and confidence
is high for showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy rain at times
with the potential for minor flooding, especially for low lying or
poor drainage locations, if storms continue to pass over the same
areas.

Cloud cover along the stationary boundary will lead to a lack of
sunshine at times with cooler weather. Patchy fog is possible with
abundant moisture and high relative humidities overnight tonight and
into Sunday morning. Afternoon highs through Sunday afternoon will
be near to slightly below average for this time of year in the mid
to upper 80s and just above 90 in some locations.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
An elongated mid level ridge will extend almost into
the area from the west which will keep pops basically in normal
values. At the surface the bermuda ridge from the east will be the
main player with a not overly impressive piedmont trough. Highs
Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with the very warm
morning lows in the 70s continuing.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Basically a normal period early on as ridging, extending west
to east just into the CWA at least for the first part of the
forecast is in control. Toward the end of the workweek troughing
develops in the east with a cold front seemingly poised to at
least make a run into the area. We show increasing pops at this
time. Essentially no changes to the temperature forecast.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Tropical low pressure system will ride northward along a
stationary front stalled just onshore early this morning. This
will pull an area of showers and thunderstorms offshore by
later this morning, as the stationary front will slide offshore
and NW winds behind this front will usher in slightly cooler air
and morning stratus. Expect MVFR ifr across much of the area,
improving toVFR soon thereafter. With the front positioned
slightly offshore, there should only be a few clouds around this
afternoon with a couple of isolated storms along the sea
breeze.

Extended... Moisture will move back in on Monday leading to
enhanced chances of rain and morning stratus br. Afternoon
showers and storms possible through much of the extended period
along with morning stratus br.

Marine
Main concern for the next 36 hours is developing thunderstorms
offshore, as well as concerns for small craft with gusts up to 25
kts at times. Waves out of the south to southwest at significant
heights of 4 to 6 feet at 7 seconds through tonight decreasing to 3
to 5 feet Sunday. Light swell from the southeast around 10 seconds.

Southwest winds for the next 36 hours from the southwest between 5
and 15 mph with gusts approaching 25 kts at times, especially during
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely as a stationary
front inland allows for unstable weather. Waves and winds could be
locally higher in thunderstorms.

The marine community will see typical late summer time conditions
as bermuda high pressure and to an extent the piedmont trough
dictate. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 10-15
knots. Seas will be mostly 2-3 feet with possibly some four
footers on occasion.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... Shk
update... Mas
near term... Mas mck
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... Mas 21
marine... Mas mck shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi60 min 78°F 85°F1014.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi60 min SSW 14 G 18 79°F 82°F1014.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi94 min SW 19 G 27 79°F 83°F1014.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi62 min 83°F5 ft
41108 29 mi42 min 84°F7 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi94 min SW 21 G 29 79°F 84°F1014.5 hPa
41119 35 mi52 min 84°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi1.8 hrsN 09.00 miRain75°F75°F100%1015 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi67 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F90%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SW10
G17
S3S3SW4SW4CalmSE3NE4N4N9NE7E7E5N3NE4CalmS6SW85CalmE3
1 day agoS3S4CalmS4S4S7S4SW7S7SW5SW4SW8S4S7NE73NE6CalmW7SW6SW4CalmS5Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmSW9SW84SW4SE7S5S5N6CalmCalmS3CalmS4S9S6SW4SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:34 AM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:52 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.72.921.30.70.30.61.62.83.53.93.93.52.821.30.80.50.61.52.73.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:08 AM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.64.43.82.921.20.60.30.92.13.23.94.24.13.62.821.30.80.50.81.93.24

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.