Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:43 PM EST (19:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 146 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of rain late.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 146 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. High pressure passes north of the area today, leading to gusty ne winds. A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Saturday with widespread rainfall. Drying conditions and high pressure then follow for Sun into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 121736 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1236 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure passes north of the area today, leading to below normal temperatures and gusty Northeast winds. A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Saturday with widespread rainfall. Drying conditions and high pressure then follow for Sun into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Latest sfc analysis shows 1038 mb high pressure centered over MD. The high will slowly drift east today, and allow for below normal temps with low-level NE flow below the WSW flow aloft. Entire column remains dry, so no pcpn expected through the day, and just some increasing clouds late especially near the coast. High temps only in the lwr 50s.

Attention then turns to developing sfc low pressure over the GOM and its NE progression along with an approaching upr-level trough. Initially there will still be plenty of dry air in place, so much of the nighttime period is expected to be dry. Then when deep-layer moisture increases, lift (warm air advection) will be fairly weak/disorganized until better shortwave energy aloft approaches from the SW during the aftn Fri, when rain chances will be highest (categorical PoPs). Could easily see an inch of rain in some areas through Fri evening. For now maintained no mention of thunder during the day Fri as instability is lacking.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A broad and somewhat unimpressive storm system will be moving up the coast Friday evening. There could be a few hours of more organized rainfall Friday evening before transitioning to a showery and kinda drizzly scenario. Saturday will feature overcast conditions with some residual light rain showers and or drizzle. Warm sector southwest flow will keep lows Friday night into Saturday morning well into the 50s with some increase Saturday despite the moisture possibly reaching the 60s. The cold front associated with the system will move across late Saturday evening dropping Sunday's lows into the middle 40s or so. Finally high resolution guidance keeps convective cells mostly offshore so will confine slight chance of thunder in those areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Overall the main features of the extended remain in place with little or no changes. Weak high pressure will settle in in the wake of the storm system Sunday and Monday with warm temperatures moreso Monday. A cold front will move across Tuesday followed by much cooler high pressure for midweek.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Clear skies across the area, with the exception of a tongue of low level moisture bringing low clouds to far SE NC. Expect these clouds to move southward through this afternoon and affect MYR/CRE, but should either skim the airports or be scattered enough to not include in TAFs. Brief MVFR possible if bulk of clouds move over coastal SC. Else, will see an increase in mid- level clouds from the south this evening into tonight as warm air overruns the cool surface air in the region. Look for ceilings to lower to MVFR, and possibly IFR, overnight from south to north, and likely last through Saturday afternoon. Rain chances ramp up tomorrow morning, becoming heavier into the afternoon. Surface winds remain out of the NE through tomorrow afternoon between 5-10 kts, with gusts along coastal SC this afternoon and evening. Winds at 2000 ft after sundown tonight will increase to near 30 kts out of the SE, just shy of LLWS TAF inclusion.

Extended Outlook . MVFR/IFR likely through Saturday afternoon as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday as a cold front approaches.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect due to strong NE flow with high pressure centered N of the area. Expect gusts of 25-30 kt today with seas up to 5-7 ft. The high then shifts off to the NE tonight into Fri, and with weak low pressure passing directly into the area, winds and seas will improve to below Advisory thresholds. The headline therefore is set to end Fri morning as winds drop to 10-20 kt and seas at 3-5 ft.

Winds will be transitioning to southwest from east/northeast during Friday evening. A broad southwest flow will prevail Saturday in what we typically see with exiting storm systems this time of year before the actual "cold" front moves across late Saturday evening. The flow could get strong enough for a few hours later Saturday (15-20 knots) to increase seas across the outer waters to six feet. Any headline at this point seems to be short lived and marginal. A modest offshore flow develops and prevails through Sunday. Finally a shift to northeast then southwest again early next week. As for significant seas, the highest values occur Saturday then drop back to 2-4 feet into early next before increasing yet again ahead of the next cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.

SYNOPSIS . MAS NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . VAO MARINE . MAS/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi55 min 53°F 54°F1033.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi55 min NNE 15 G 19 49°F 55°F1033.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi35 min NE 18 G 23 49°F 1033.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi33 min 57°F6 ft
41108 29 mi73 min 56°F5 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi35 min NE 23 G 29 51°F 65°F1033 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi35 min NE 16 G 21 50°F 55°F1033.6 hPa
41119 35 mi53 min 55°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi50 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast52°F35°F53%1034.3 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi48 minNE 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast50°F36°F61%1033.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW13N9N8N11N9NW5N5N8N5N5N4N6N7N7N9NE9NE10NE14NE13NE14NE11NE12NE12
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2 days agoS9S7S7S4S5S7SW7S8SW9S11SW9S8SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:05 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:31 AM EST     4.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:56 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:59 PM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.80.2-0.20.21.32.83.94.34.343.32.61.81.10.40.10.61.82.93.53.73.52.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:50 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:16 AM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:44 PM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.40.70-0.20.41.83.44.34.74.64.13.42.51.810.30.20.92.23.33.943.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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