Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:36PM Saturday April 4, 2020 11:32 AM EDT (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:45PMMoonset 3:53AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Rest of today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt becoming ne winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 4 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers possible.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 1003 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will prevail across the adjacent local waters through Sunday while large oceanic low pressure far off the mid- atlantic coast moves off toward the east. SWells from this low will increase this weekend. High pressure will consolidate off the southeast u.s. Coast during Monday allowing for southwesterly winds to prevail through mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 041407 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1007 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A large oceanic low will remain far off the Mid-Atlantic coast as weak high pressure builds across the area through tonight. A warming trend will begin early next week with above normal temperatures expected. A weak weather system may bring some showers to the area Monday into Tuesday. A stronger cold front is expected later in the upcoming week.

UPDATE. Other than occasional passing clouds, not much to stand in the way of a nice April Saturday. Other than tweaks to reflect latest observations, no changes were made to going forecast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will prevail today and tonight as the large oceanic low far off the Mid-Atlantic coast drifts off toward the east. The column will remain dry with precipitable water values from 0.5 to 0.7 inches (highest SC zones). However the subtropical plume will likely inject some high level moisture through the period. High temperatures will likely be similar today and Sunday with return flow and the bigger warm up not expected to begin until early next week. While minimum RH this afternoon will approach near critical levels for inland areas there will not be as much wind compared to yesterday - thus limiting the overall fire danger. Lastly, astronomical tides could approach advisory levels, especially with high tide Sunday, and subsequent high tides in the short term period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Air mass will modify as high pressure shifts off the coast and winds shift around becoming onshore and then S-SW on Mon. Tail end of a front will drop into NC on Mon. This weakened boundary may drop far enough south to help kick winds around to the SW to W aiding in some convergence with sea breeze boundary and a few shwrs. Instability increases but overall moisture is lacking so for now will keep just showers in forecast and leave thunderstorms out for Mon. Also may see some minor perturbations in the mid to upper level flow to initiate some shwrs late Mon into Mon night. Overall expect some clouds around and a chc of shwrs. Temps will run above climo with mid 50s Sun night and closer to 60 for Mon night. Highs on Mon will reach up into the 70s to near 80 inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Warmer and moister return flow will continue into mid week around high pressure located east of Bahamas and weak low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Winds will have a strong westerly component especially aloft. Minor perturbation in mid to upper flow will produce clouds and chc of showers on Tues and with increasing moisture and instability, may see potential for a thunderstorm or two. Another front may pass through the area on Wed, with some drying through the mid levels. Winds will back to the SW and increase into Thurs and expect showers to increase by Thurs into Thurs night as moisture increases and more substantial cold front moves through. By Fri, temps and dewpoints will drop a good 10 degrees in deeper drier W-NW flow behind front. Temps will run near or into the 80s through mid week with a drop down into the 70s post FROPA on Fri.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High confidence VFR through the TAF period with weak high pressure in control along with a dry column in place. Winds not expected to be as gusty compared to yesterday, though they are forecast to veer through the afternoon. Upper-level moisture will bring more cirrus than we saw yesterday, but no visibility issues there.

Extended Outlook . High pressure and VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. Flight restrictions are possible early to mid next week with increasing rain chances from a weak system moving through.

MARINE. Large oceanic low approximately 380 miles ENE of Cape Hatteras will continue to drift toward the ESE through tonight. Back- swell from this feature will result in increasing waves in the 14-16 part of the spectrum today and tonight. Swells should peak Sunday with dominant period around 13 seconds. While these waves are not expected to meet Small Craft thresholds expect steep waves at inlet entrances, especially during a falling tide. Otherwise, weak high pressure will influence weather across the coastal waters with the flow to gradually veer to E-SE direction.

High pressure shifts off shore with a SW return flow. Low pressure to the north will drag the tail end of a front southward on Mon. The boundary may not reach the waters, but it helps kick winds around to a more westerly direction. Another weak front will move through Wed but overall, winds will remain SW Mon through Wed, but will back to SW and increase on Thurs as a more substantial front approaches. Seas in the 2 to 4 ft range through much of the week will ramp up on Thurs in SW winds up to 15 to 25 kts. Winds will shift around Fri behind front to the W-NW remaining quite stiff. Looks like SCA conditions are likely late Thurs into Fri. A longer period E-NE swell will fade away by Tues and shorter period wind waves will become dominant Thurs into Fri.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . SRP UPDATE . 31 NEAR TERM . SRP SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . IGB MARINE . RGZ/SRP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi62 min 64°F 64°F1015.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi62 min NE 8.9 G 8.9 58°F 60°F1015.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi84 min NE 9.7 G 16 56°F 62°F1015.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi52 min 62°F3 ft
41108 29 mi62 min 62°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi84 min NNE 14 G 18 65°F1014.2 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi84 min ENE 9.7 G 12 59°F 62°F1015.5 hPa
41119 35 mi42 min 62°F1 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi39 minN 910.00 miFair65°F39°F39%1015.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi37 minNNE 710.00 miFair64°F39°F40%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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NW8NW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW5N6N5N3N3N3NE5N7N9
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NW12--------W3W6W5W5NW4NW3NW6NW6NW5W6NW8NW11NW12NW13
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N9N8NW4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N5NW6NW4NW6NW9N10N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:42 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:10 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:30 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.10.723.244.24.13.62.821.30.70.10.212.23.33.94.13.83.12.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:27 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:41 PM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.10.21.12.53.74.44.64.33.62.721.30.60.10.31.42.73.84.34.443.12.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.