Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 10:29 AM EDT (14:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:16PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1014 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1014 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will affect the area waters today. The cold front is expected to move off the carolina coasts and offshore late today thru tonight. High pressure will follow Wed through Fri morning. Pcpn chances are expected to increase late Fri into the upcoming weekend as another cold front approaches from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221422
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1022 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
Scattered showers and isolated strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front, will affect the area
later this morning thru the afternoon hours. The cold front is
expected to move off the carolina coasts and offshore early
tonight ending the threat for pcpn. High pressure will follow
wed through Fri morning. Pcpn chances will increase again late
fri into the upcoming weekend as another cold front approaches
from the west and eventually stalls just south of the forecast
area.

Update
Have lowered pops some for today, mostly for this morning.

Widely scattered light rain across the area right now, with
similar conditions expected over next hour or two. Low stratus
hanging strong, and latest 12z models (nam, hrrr) have decreased
storm coverage for today. Chance for isolated strong severe
storms still exist, especially where any breaks in clouds occur
allowing heating.

Near term through Wednesday
The highlight of this period will be the isolated potential for
strong to severe tstorms from mid daytime morning thru late this
afternoon. Instability (cape 1k to 1.5k) will become avbl from
daytime heating and an influx of moisture, hier dewpoints, in
the lower levels. Although, SPC backed down the slgt risk to
just our nc counties, will still continue to mention isolated
strong to severe across the our sc counties. The atm wind field
starts off with a veering hodograph this morning and by aftn, it
becomes unidirectional. The 50+ kt winds aloft remain above
750mb. Still could see some organized convection though, and if
able to tap those hier 50+ kt winds, a few isolated svr remains
possible. The veering hodograph may favor an isolated tornado
in addition to the main threat from damaging wind gusts.

The cold front pushes thru early this evening under westerly
winds and following that, a secondary cold front or trof with
the main surge of cooler air following it's passage mid to late
this evening. Sfc ridging from the high's center along the gulf
coast states will affect the fa late tonight thru wed... With the
high's center elongating across the fa late wed. Will stay
close to a blend of various model MOS guidance for temps.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
Surface high pressure will control the weather under what will
be an amplifying mid level pattern. The high will move overhead
and offshore to the northeast by the end of the period. Highs
Thursday will be in the lower 70s. Lows Thursday morning will be
quite cool mostly in the 40s. Some air mass modification and
warm air advection as well as come possible cloud cover will
ramp up lows well into the 50s Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Monday
Still looking at unsettled conditions for the most part and the
forecast hasn't changed appreciably. A complex storm system
will evolve from a potent mid level low traversing the tennessee
valley with a possible second round late in the period. The
highest pops and QPF occur with the initial round of activity
later Friday into early Saturday. No changes to the temperature
forecast which will generally be above normal.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
The atmosphere is a bit capped at this time, but that will change
after a little bit of heating which will kick of scattered showers
by mid morning. Ceiling will bounce around quite a bit today, with
MVFR being the predominate ceiling. Winds will shift around to the
southwest, as dewpoints climb to around 70 in advance of a cold
front. Some storms this afternoon could have strong winds. Improving
conditions this evening as the front pushes off the coast.

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR with possible MVFR ifr from fog and or
low stratus Fri morning.

Marine
For today thru wed:
the sfc pg will tighten ahead of a cold front today and will
remain tightened after it's passage this evening. Looking at
increasing SE to S winds to 10-20 kt by midday and thru the
aftn. Veering to the SW to W late this aftn and evening holding
at the same speeds. The secondary trof or cold front will push
across overnight. After it's passage, the cold surge under wnw
to NW winds could briefly produce few gusts up to 25 kt. At this
point, not enough to warrant an sca. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms ahead of the 1st cfp could briefly produce smw
threshold wind gusts. Wed will see the area waters under the
influence of high pressure ridging from it's center across the
gulf coast states. The center of the high will elongate,
reaching the area waters late wed. As a result, looking at a
diminishing trend to the winds during wed. Significant seas will
primarily come from wind driven waves with an underlying ne-ene
swell at 8 to 9 second periods complements of the strong
low(remnant nestor) pushing NE further away from the u.S.

For Wed night thru Saturday:
for the short and long term part of the marine forecast the
first few days will see mostly modest northeast winds as high
pressure hangs on even though there will be some unsettled
conditions. A wind shift to more of a return flow scenario is
expected later in the weekend extending into early next week.

Once again wind speeds will be very modest. Significant seas,
with the lack of stronger winds fields will be mostly confined
to a 2-4 foot range.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
update... Vao
near term... Dch
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... 43
marine... Dch shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi59 min 75°F 71°F1013.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi59 min SSE 12 G 13 74°F 72°F1013.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi81 min SSE 14 G 18 74°F 73°F1014 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi49 min 73°F3 ft
41108 29 mi29 min 73°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi81 min S 18 G 23 75°F 1012.8 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi81 min SSE 16 G 25 73°F 72°F1013.8 hPa
41119 35 mi39 min 72°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi36 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast76°F69°F79%1014.1 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi34 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast74°F68°F82%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE9NE335SE7SE6E8E4E4E3E4E4CalmE4NE4NE5NE4N4NE4E6E7E8SE7
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NW10W9NW12NW13NW13N6NW9N7N6N7NW4NW5N4N6NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:10 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.33.23.73.83.52.92.11.30.80.40.30.92.13.34.14.44.33.83.12.31.61.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:55 PM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.62.73.6443.72.921.20.70.40.41.22.63.94.54.74.53.93.12.21.61

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.