Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Emerson, GA

FXUS62 KFFC 211105 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 705 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 542 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Some storms possible this afternoon across mainly northern Georgia.
Can't rule out one or two becoming severe in far NW GA.

- Storm chances continue through the night into tomorrow.

Forecast:

Another cloudy morning to start in most places, though some clearing is taking in a window between some upper level moisture transport and a cold front with ongoing thunderstorms approaching from the west. Surface cyclone and upper level low are becoming vertically stacked over the midwest but will get a shove from another shortwave trailing behind over the Rockies. This will continue to push them away from the CWA and cause the cold front pushing towards to slow and eventually stall just to the north. Moisture will pool ahead of this front within the subtropical airmass over the area and allow for a continuation of thunderstorms just along and ahead of the front that should push into NW and N GA by the afternoon. This stalled front should remain in place through Tuesday, allowing for additional storm chances that may see some expanded coverage thanks to some upper level divergence spreading over the SE.

Storms this afternoon will have some instability available to them thanks in large part to surface based heating and moisture transport. HRRR ensemble continues to show ribbon of SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg that is able to extend into portions of NW GA to provide for thunderstorm development and maintenance during the afternoon hours. However, of note within model soundings themselves is that moisture is relatively shallow, and MLCAPE values tend to be lower as a result. Storm updrafts may be fighting with some dry air entrainment issues that limit strength. Shear will be the other limiting factor. A look across hires model output shows bulk 0-6km shear to generally less than 30 kts across NW GA, and hodographs tend to end up looping back over themselves. Still, given the instability potential, can't rule out seeing a strong storm or even a very isolated severe storm across far NW GA today. Highs today will be warm again, in the mid 80s across most areas.

Storms will likely begin to wane a bit overnight, though some continuation will be possible across northern GA. Models indicate what will likely be another round of storms on Tuesday with emphasis again on portions of north Georgia. These storms will likely encounter many of the same potential issues as today when it comes to whether or not we will see anything severe. Highs remain several degrees above average as our moisture airmass remains in place, though north Georgia may be a touch cooler thanks to rain and cloud cover (high 70s, versus mid to upper 80s elsewhere).

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