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FXUS62 KFFC 171943 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 343 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New 18Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

So far today, dense cloud cover and the stabilizing effect of showers have precluded deep convection across the majority of the CWA The exception has been the southwest portion of the CWA, where a west-to-east oriented line of convection has shifted eastward out of south-central AL. WPC has introduced a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across our far southwestern counties, where moderate to heavy rainfall and elevated/embedded thunderstorms have been occurring since mid- morning. While instability is not particularly exceptional, PWAT has surged to 1.7+ inches and 925-850 mb frontal convergence is strong, so the expectation is that this messy area of convection will persist into the evening, and possibly become better organized. Thinking that the potential for severe storms is marginal at best across our southern couple rows of counties, as instability has not been able to nose northward from the Gulf Coast much due to the cold pool produced by the area of convection. In the event of a strong or marginally severe storm across our southern tier this afternoon or evening, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Will likely have scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms persist overnight as the moist, southwesterly flow persists.

On Saturday, a shortwave trough coupled with progged MUCAPE of 1500- 3000 J/kg will be more than enough lift/instability to fire off scattered to widespread convection across much of the CWA during the afternoon and evening. SPC has a Slight Risk along and south of a line generally from Eatonton to Macon to Columbus, where 0-6 km bulk shear around 40-80 kts coupled with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 deg.C/km support the potential for damaging wind gusts and hail. A Marginal Risk encompasses much of the remainder of the CWA as the environment farther north is also supportive of scattered thunderstorms with some strong convection likely. A possible caveat to coverage and/or intensity of storms will be how quickly/how much cloud cover clears out. Another possible caveat... Some of the CAMs indicate a morning MCS tracking along the Gulf Coast with showers and embedded storms across portions of central GA, which could impact airmass recovery in the afternoon. Given the dynamic, unstable environment, isolated to scattered showers and storms could persist well after sunset into the overnight hours.

Martin

LONG TERM
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Starting off the forecast period with Sunday morning the troughing associated with this weekends system will begin to move eastward into the Atlantic. For Sunday, the vorticity couplet will still be over eastern Georgia as well as a weak moisture axis which will result in showers still lingering over eastern GA. With this last piece of energy in our area, this will give way to just enough energy to produce the chance for thunderstorms over eastern Georgia through Sunday night.

After Sunday a long wave ridge sets up over almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. This along with the lack of moisture over the area will lead to a drier time for most of Georgia beginning Monday and lasting until Wednesday. The unfortunate piece to this is that temperature will quickly rise with many area reaching close to 90 which goes in line with the CLimate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temperatures.

While this riding is dominating our area, the low pressure system to the west will track into the Great Lakes region, not particularly affecting the ridging. This will give way for the potential for a small burst of vorticity and moisture to move into Tennessee and northern GA by Thursday which could ultimately result in some shower activity for northern GA. Should this system have enough energy it will pave the way for more of a distinctive troughing feature to move eastward into Georgia and the southeast to push the riding to the east. Models are remaining split on whether this will happen or not a week from now, so will see what the models indicate in subsequent runs. With any showers, the risk for thunderstorms remains over the area simply due to day time heating.

Temps will stay in the upper 80s over much of the area unless the troughing is able to make it down to this area but this actually is only 4-6 degrees above normal for this time of year. Definitely trending towards the warmer summer time conditions (bummer for this cool weather fan).

Hernandez

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Most rain has been confined to central GA this afternoon with more isolated to low end scattered shower activity affecting the Atlanta metro terminals and AHN. Expect cigs to continue to slowly drop across theses areas into the evening hours as the front to the S remains quasi-stationary. At CSG and MCN, widespread rain and showers with a few embedded tstms will continue into the evening hours. Thunderstorm activity is expected to stay mostly to the S of these terminals, but strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal waves may push the warm sector northward a bit.

Winds at ATL are expected to remain mostly SSE into the evening hours, although there will be an occasional shift to SSW. More prevalent SSW winds are expected by late evening.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
Medium with exact cig heights, speed of cig drop, and wind directions, high for other elements.

Martin/SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 79 62 79 / 80 70 50 50 Atlanta 66 79 64 81 / 70 70 50 40 Blairsville 60 75 59 77 / 80 70 50 60 Cartersville 64 79 61 82 / 70 70 50 40 Columbus 69 80 65 84 / 70 70 40 40 Gainesville 66 78 63 79 / 80 70 50 60 Macon 68 79 65 82 / 70 70 40 50 Rome 65 80 62 83 / 50 70 50 30 Peachtree City 66 79 63 82 / 70 70 40 40 Vidalia 71 84 67 83 / 60 70 50 70

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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