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FXUS62 KFFC 052355 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 655 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New 00Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Current satellite loop shows mainly high clouds streaming across central and southern portions of the state. Looking for mostly dry conditions across the CWA for the next few days as high pressure centered over the Arklatex region should keep the southeastern states fairly dry. This ridge will move east Wednesday becoming centered over GA Thu. There will be a small chance of precip across the NE GA mountains as they may see a bit of rain/snow mix Tonight into early Wed morning. The southern edge of a wave moving east across the OH river valley and the Mid Atlantic states will move across NE GA Tonight. Temps will be cold enough for the possibility of a rain snow mix, but moisture will be lacking so not expecting much in the way of accumulations. If here are any accumulations they will be confined to the grassy or elevated surfaces.

Temperatures tonight will dip down into the 30s to near 40 with highs Wednesday mainly in the 50s. Will see some 40s across the NE GA mountains for highs Tomorrow. Wed night lows will dip back down into the 20s to lower 30s.

01

LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

On Thursday morning, much of the Southeast will be underneath northwesterly flow aloft ahead of a broad ridge extending from the north central Gulf Coast to the Northern Plains. A surface high will meanwhile be centered over Georgia, contributing to clear and dry conditions. With a cool, continental airmass lingering over the region, Thursday morning will start out with the coolest temperatures of the week, ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s.
Considering light, nearly calm winds under the high pressure system, patchy frost will also be possible in the early morning hours.
Temperatures will then begin to moderate under the influence of the high, rising into the mid to upper 50s across the area Thursday afternoon. At this time, the center of the high will move towards the Georgia/South Carolina coast, with winds shifting to SW at 5-8 mph. In spite of the SW flow, dry air will linger during the afternoon, with minimum RH values forecast to range from 30-35 percent, and even dropping into the upper 20s in far northeast Georgia. Considering near borderline RH values and drying 10-hour fuels, the potential for hazardous fire weather conditions will need to be monitored.

Temperatures will continue to gradually climb through the end of the week. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60s on Friday and range from the mid 60s in north Georgia to the low 70s in southeast Georgia on Saturday. The continued southerly component of the low level flow will also lead to a steady increase atmospheric moisture. An upper trough is forecast to dig over the Central Plains by Saturday and the MS Valley by late Saturday night. At this time, it appears that widespread showers will be most likely from Saturday night through Sunday morning, although model discrepancies still exist with respect to the timing and movement of this system.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in addition to the widespread showers, although instability is anticipated to be marginal. As the trough and surface cold front move through the area on Sunday, rain chances will diminish from west to east. A return to cool and dry conditions is expected behind the cold front to begin next week.

King

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions to start with mostly SKC conditions except MCN and CSG, where high cirrus continue to stream by. Big story will be winds, which should continue to turn NW and become stronger overnight. Sustained above 10 kts can be expected through 22-23Z tomorrow, with gusts of 20+ kts at most all sites. Cigs at metro sites will be a little tricky as low level cloud cover filters in around Appalachians. Could see periods of SCT030 to 040 through tomorrow afternoon, and can't rule out going BKN at times, especially further north at RYY. Not confident enough in seeing periods of BKN at ATL to include in TAF, but this could change in future updates.

//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
Medium cigs, high all others.

Lusk

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 39 55 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 39 51 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 34 44 24 54 / 40 0 0 0 Cartersville 37 51 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 40 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 40 50 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 40 56 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 37 52 28 58 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 38 52 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 43 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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