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FXUS62 KFFC 081544 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1044 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1033 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Updated PoPs through the short term to account for the more scattered nature of showers on Saturday with the main focus being on North Georgia for the bulk of any rainfall. QPF values are less than 0.20 for much of the area tomorrow with locally higher amounts mainly in N GA. Still kept thunder out of the grids mainly on Saturday as the parameters just aren't there until Sunday.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

The mid-level ridge over the eastern CONUS will continue to move eastward over the coming 12 to 24 hours. The associated sfc high over GA will also move off into the Atlantic. Southerly flow on the backside of the high will help to bring Gulf moisture back into the area ahead of a Midwest digging trough. While the parent low will be well to the north, Gulf cyclogenesis will begin to develop another surface low along the Gulf Coast. This dynamic support combined with a long cold front will initiate showers and thunderstorms across the region through the weekend (won't see any action until at very late Friday night to very early Saturday morning). Most CAMS have relatively meager MUCAPE values of <300 J/Kg. Even in the moderate shear environment, not anticipating much more than showers with the occasional rumble of thunder.

Temperatures will be on the uptrend with highs today in the mid to low 60s and highs tomorrow reaching into the low 70s. A similar trend can be expected with the lows with the coldest temperatures being in the 30s this morning and 40s to 50s tomorrow morning.

SM

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A weak upper ridge will support a brief warm-up today through Saturday. An upper trough is forecast to dig from the N MS Valley to the S Plains on Saturday. This trough will slowly shift E through the remainder of the weekend, with widespread showers returning to the area by Saturday afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible with this system, with the best chances Saturday evening across the NW zones. Instability will be limited, but wind shear will be high. The greatest threat of isolated strong storms is expected Sunday morning when CAPE values increase to 200-300 J/kg and coincide with increased wind shear. If this activity develops, it will be just ahead of the cold front.

S winds will increase and become gusty Saturday night into Sunday, with the highest gusts over the N Mountains late Saturday night and across a more widespread area Sunday afternoon as strong low-level winds mix to the surface. Wind gusts may approach 50 mph across some of the highest terrain of NE GA on Sunday, with gusts near 40 mph across much of N Central, NE, and E Central GA (including portions of the Atlanta metro area).

As scattered light showers linger Sunday evening and colder air begins to filter in, some light snow showers are possible over the NE mountains. .1-.2 accumulations are possible on the highest terrain.

Colder temperatures and drier conditions are expected again early next week, with nighttime lows dipping to near 20 across the NE mountains and subfreezing temperatures expected across most of the remaining area. Temperatures will gradually warm through the remainder of the upcoming week. /SEC

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions through later this evening. Cigs begin downward trend around 23Z with shra moving into the area around 05Z. SHRA coverage increases through 12Z with cigs dropping to IFR to LIFR.
Further changes may be made in future cycles for thunder potential.
VSBYs begin to drop due to BR around 11Z through the metro area.
Winds from the Southwest at 3 to 8kts today will transition to the SE around 23Z.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Medium confidence Cigs and VSBY.
High Confidence all other elements.

SM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 45 65 55 66 / 30 50 90 100 Atlanta 50 67 56 64 / 50 60 100 90 Blairsville 43 59 50 60 / 60 70 100 90 Cartersville 48 67 52 63 / 60 70 100 90 Columbus 52 71 58 67 / 40 40 90 90 Gainesville 47 61 55 62 / 50 70 100 100 Macon 50 73 58 67 / 10 30 70 100 Rome 49 67 52 62 / 60 60 100 80 Peachtree City 49 68 56 65 / 50 60 90 90 Vidalia 52 76 61 73 / 10 20 50 100

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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