UPDATE
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all coastal zones of Southeast North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina, as well as Inland Georgetown, Central Horry, and all coastal waters. Expect low-end tropical storm force winds over the land areas in the warning, with heavy rain as well starting as early as late tonight. Other new headlines include a high risk of rip currents over all beaches Monday, as well as Coastal Flood Advisories for the Monday morning high tide cycle.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure ridging into the area from the north and slowly developing low pressure off the coast, will keep moist air in place over the area through the forecast period. the low is expected to track closer to the area tonight into Monday bringing increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms into Monday. A flood watch remains in effect and Georgetown has been added based on rainfall expectations. Lows tonight will be within a couple degrees of 70 with highs Monday in the mid to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Rain coverage and intensity should be waning early in the period as coastal low moves north away from the area. There are some slower model solutions though that would imply otherwise, and until the low congeals this evening it may be tough to tell the exact sense of timing. The better chance for pronounced drying comes Tuesday and Tuesday night, though it will be tough to get POPs below about 30 thereafter with such vort-laden cyclonic flow in the area. Tuesday's highs will be near normal whereas both nights will be a tad mild due to lingering cloud cover.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Partly sunny and warmer Wednesday as cyclonic mid level flow abates to more open troughiness locally, though a few small scale vort maxes will call for slight chance POPs. Thursday too will remain mild and with small but non-zero rain chances with light surface flow but still some weak PVA. This semi-permanent upper trough pushes a weak front through on Thursday, not ramping up rain chances appreciably but bringing temperatures back closer to climatology.
Details are a bit murky late in the period as the trough remains, possibly cutting off to our south per GFS or farther north per EC, the Canadian keeping more of an open trough. Most of these ideas at least point to near climo temps or a bit cooler and with only minimal rain chances.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Developing low pressure off the coast will allow for continuous onshore flow tonight leading to increasing rain chances and lowering cigs. Generally will see VFR/MVFR this evening dropping to MVFR/IFR on Mon. NE winds of 15 to 20 KT with gusts of 25 to 30 KT are expected though much of the period; a bit higher along the coast as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight comes ashore.

Extended Outlook...High chance for MVFR/IFR conditions along w/ rain and gusty winds continues Monday night as abundant moisture and low pressure impact the area. Should see some improvement starting Tue into Wed.

MARINE
Through Monday...a good time to stay off the water with E to NE winds of 25 to 35 KT with higher gusts expected through the period.
Seas of 8 to 12 feet are expected.

Monday night through Friday... Conditions will take a while to settle below advisory thresholds following the Monday/Tuesday inland migration of coastal low. A more typical SW flow will become established by Tuesday, likely also the day that we fall below 6ft.
Wind and seas abate thereafter, and a cold front is slated for a Thursday passage.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Elevated astronomical tides, strong northeast winds and large swells in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will cause elevated water levels along the coasts of SE NC and NE SC leading to minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding at times early this week.

In addition, easterly swells will cause a high risk of rip currents for all beaches Monday. Persistent northeasterly winds will produce moderate to strong longshore currents.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ106-108-110.
Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108- 110.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ106-108.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108-110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107.
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for SCZ024-033-054>056-058-059.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.