Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington, NC

UPDATE/

Just a minor tweak to cloud cover forecast as 4kft ceiling is moving in from the NW. Most guidance is not depicting these clouds well but confidence remains high that they will be transient, continuing to sink south across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Surface high pressure will remain between the Carolina coast and Bermuda, shifting southward just enough to turn our low level winds southwesterly. Compared to yesterday this should limit the amount of cooling marine influence for locations like Burgaw, Wilmington, and Conway which should run 5-7 degrees hotter today. Dewpoints have been creeping up a little each of the past few days and even during peak mixing should remain in the 58-61 range this afternoon. Despite the increasing theta-e, warm and dry air aloft within the 700 mb ridge centered over South Carolina should keep the area rain-free.

Forecast highs range from the mid to upper 70s at the beaches to the upper 80s inland. This should be one of the top 3 warmest days of the year (so far) in Florence and could be the warmest in Lumberton.
Air temperature differences from offshore to inland reaching 15-18 degrees should fuel a healthy seabreeze with winds at the beaches increasing to 15-20 mph from mid afternoon through early evening.

Storms could fire across northern and central North Carolina late this afternoon outside of the subsidence within our mid level ridge.
There's a low chance one of these showers or storms could approach Robeson or Bladen counties early this evening, but forecast PoPs remain less than 10 percent in accordance with the latest HRRR.
Enough low level wind should continue tonight to keep temperatures warmer than the past few nights and forecast lows range from 62-65, except a few degrees cooler across the inland southern portion of the Pee Dee region where winds have the best chance to dip to calm overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Another abnormally warm and dry day looks to be in store for Thursday as offshore high pressure keeps south-southwesterly low-level flow in place while mid-level ridging maintains subsidence and dry air above any shallow cumulus clouds that manage to develop. Highs are expected to reach the mid-upper 80s away from the coast with low-mid 80s nearer to the shore.
The pressure gradient between the offshore high and low pressure over the Great Lakes should keep steady south- southwesterly winds going all night with lows in the low-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The trend towards a slower, sharper mid-level shortwave trough leading to a slower cold front continues, with guidance now suggesting a closed mid-upper low will take shape over the Ohio Valley over the weekend. While the GFS and its ensembles remain progressive with the shortwave, which is a known bias, both the Canadian and European operational models and their ensembles continue to trend in this slower and more amplified direction. The confidence in the forecast for this weekend remains abnormally low, and those with weekend events or plans should continue to monitor future forecast updates as this situation evolves.

The slower timing of the cold front means that Friday should end up being a mostly dry day, except perhaps for isolated pop- up showers and storms near and west of the I-95 corridor. Highs in the mid-upper 80s can be expected with low-mid 80s near the coast once again. Depending on how far west the cold front is, Friday night may also end up being dry with muggy lows in the mid-upper 60s as steady south-southwesterly winds continue in light of a tightening pressure gradient.

On Saturday, the location of the cold front is crucial as this will determine whether scattered to numerous showers and storms develop over the area ahead of it, or if only isolated pop-up convection develops before more widespread activity arrives late in the day and/or overnight. PoPs are held in the 40-60% range for the afternoon, but this period is subject to change in future updates - drier if the front is further west. Otherwise, yet another abnormally warm day would be in store with a slower cold front, leading to mid-upper 80s inland once again. At this time, temps are nudged a degree or two up to mark this trend, with mid-80s now forecast inland.

Confidence remains low in what happens from Saturday onward as the guidance continues its trend towards not just a sharper shortwave trough, but a significant closed mid-upper low taking shape over the Ohio Valley, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Details regarding its position, magnitude, and the spokes of vorticity rotating around its center will have significant implications on whether we see a clean cold frontal passage with dry and mild weather in its wake or precip chances lingering into next week. For now, PoPs have seen an upward adjustment from the previous forecast, with rain chances holding in the 20-40% range from Sunday through Tuesday, with additional adjustments expected in the coming days as finer- scale details hopefully become clearer. Temperatures will also be subject to change pending these details.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to continue over the coming 24 hours. There there is a very low (<10%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm approaching the KLBT airport from the north this evening between 23z-03z.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Friday.
There is a low moderate probability of periodic MVFR/IFR visibility in showers and thunderstorms Friday night, increasing to a moderate probability Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Surface high pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda will sink a little farther south today as a storm system moving across New England lowers pressures across the Mid Atlantic region. This will tend to veer our wind directions about 30 degrees clockwise from yesterday. Combined with today's seabreeze, wind speeds could increase to as high as 15-20 knots nearshore late this afternoon into this evening. Although mariners this evening may see thunderstorms in the distance to the north, this convective activity is expected to remain north of Surf City with no impacts across our portion of the Carolinas.

Thursday through Sunday...
Offshore high pressure will remain in place through the weekend, maintaining south-southwesterly flow with enhanced flow nearshore due to the sea breeze and abnormally warm temps over land. The cold front slated for Saturday continues to carry low confidence as guidance tools continue to delay its arrival.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead of it when it does arrive, and the front may linger near the area into next week. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-3 ft range through Friday before the approaching front tightens the pressure gradient and drives increasing wind waves into the 3-4 ft range over the weekend. The ever-present ESErly 8 sec swells are expected to hold in the 1-2 ft range through the period with southerly wind waves dominating the wave spectrum.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.