Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 645 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog until late afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less after midnight. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 foot at 5 seconds. Rain, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and N 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 645 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A front will drop into the area and stall through Sunday. High pressure builds in from the north Monday and Tuesday followed by another cold front Thursday.

FXUS62 KILM 201032 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 632 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A front will move south across the Carolinas today, stalling to our south tonight. Low pressure developing along this front should lead to widespread rain Sunday. High pressure will gradually build in from the northwest bringing dry weather back to the Carolinas by Monday night and Tuesday and lasting through much of next week.

UPDATE
Put out a dense fog advisory for our northern most counties as they sit under a low stratus deck, clearing up through the morning as the clouds start to scatter out. Added patchy sea fog over the waters, particularly for SE NC, until the afternoon where increased shower activity should clear things up.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front will move through the area during the AM hours, stalling near the coast come the afternoon. Low pressure will develop along the front near the SC coast, Gulf moisture being pulled NE into our area. Scattered activity expected during the afternoon due to these increased PWATs paired with instability from daytime heating. Thunder chances will be higher near the coast due to the frontal boundary. Heights continue to fall overnight with precip chances increasing over the area as the low deepens offshore.
Temperatures will be tricky due to the front in the area, but lowered inland temps due to the frontal passage. Regardless, we'll still warm into the 80s, lower 80s inland and upper 80s near the coast. Lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cool surface airmass will exist across the Carolinas north of a front stalled near Savannah, GA Sunday. The approach of a southern stream shortwave should lead to increasing isentropic lift over the shallow cool airmass. Rain is expected to overspread the area during the day and forecast PoPs are 90-100 percent. Forecast soundings show mid level lapse rates (above the cool surface layer) are steep enough there may be embedded convective elements within the broad stratiform rain, but I'm not including thunder at this time. I've adjusted temperatures down a couple degrees below the default model blends and will likely end up favoring the cooler GFS MOS for Sunday's highs.

This wave of isentropic lift should taper off Sunday night as this first shortwave passes overhead. Clouds may begin to break overnight, however total clearing will have to wait at least another 24 hours as a northerly stream trough will approach the area Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The second upper system should help develop an area of low pressure along the baroclinic zone off the GA coast, potentially spreading a few showers back along the Carolina coast Monday. Clouds will also hang on, especially east of I-95. Once this upper trough moves overhead Monday night skies should clear rapidly as the Carolinas come under the influence of surface high pressure moving southeastward from the Upper Midwest. Diurnal ranges will become larger as generally dry weather and clear skies are expected for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Areas under a low stratus deck this morning could see VSBY/CIG restrictions through 14Z, primarily KLBT and KILM. Once this starts to burn off conditions will improve through the afternoon. Rain chances increase during the afternoon and evening with restrictions expected again tomorrow night.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the weekend due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions with a front stalled offshore and deepening low pressure to our SW. Wind direction will be tricky with the front in the area but SW winds during the AM hours will turn to the NE during the evening, speeds near 10 kts increasing to near 15 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with 4 footers creeping in late in the period.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Sunday morning should start with a stalled front near Savannah, GA extending northeastward across the open Atlantic Ocean. Low pressure should develop along the front off the South Carolina coast during the day, deepening only slowly as it moves out to sea Sunday night into Monday. A surge of northerly winds will develop behind the deepening cyclone, potentially approaching Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday night into Monday morning. I've added a couple of knots to model blends as nearshore water temperatures have risen well into the 60s and will contrast strongly with air temperatures in the 50s much of the day.

Once this system departs the area Sunday night, a second area of low pressure could develop well off the Georgia coast Monday into Monday night. This could lead to lingering rain over the coastal waters plus breezy northerly winds. Once we get into Tuesday, this second low pressure system should be far enough off the coast for winds to diminish with the approach of high pressure from the west through Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Masonboro Inlet
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Sat -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Campbell Island
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Sat -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

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