NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 310 AM: Low-level flow has turned northeasterly over most of the area, as negatively tilted upper trough drifts southeast over the Mid-Atlantic coast, and sfc high pressure fills in beneath the trailing sharp ridge. Sfc front technically south of the area although the much anticipated drying is only slowly taking shape, with the deep dry air just now reaching the area per vapor imagery.

Stratus have expanded in an arc around the high from West Virginia to eastern SC, but are moving slowly enough that in the face of sunshine, they are not expected to reach much of the Upstate or GA. Low LCLs imply a cu field may break out by late morning. But by midday the low clouds should dissipate and some of the sfc moisture will mix out. Although a subsidence inversion looks unlikely to develop this far south, the dry air should kill any deep convective updrafts in the eastern CWA and skies should remain mostly sunny. Further west, low to midlevel moisture will be a tad better and mechanical lift and/or ridgetop convergence will give a bit of a boost. PoPs are retained at likely/numerous in a portion of the SW mountains and Escarpment area but these taper off to only a isolated to widely scattered mention NE of the French Broad Valley. Another day of warm but slightly below-normal aftn temps, but dewpoints should be able to mix out a few degrees into the mid 60s, making it a bit more bearable than we've seen lately. A couple spots in the NC Piedmont may tap into even drier air and mix out to around 60. PWATs fall to around normal in the area with the best precip chance today, mitigating flash flood threat to some extent. However, deep cloud layer flow will be opposite the low-level flow likely to initiate any showers, so very slow movement or terrain anchoring still will be possible.

On the other side of the upper ridge, a weak cutoff low will drift north across the Ozarks and reach the upper MS Valley tonight. Sfc high will move to the East Coast and the eastern trough will also cut off, leaving the pattern briefly in an omega configuration by Sunday morning. This looks likely to veer sfc winds to SE, helping the low levels to moisten again, and some sources thus bank stratus or stratocu against the Escarpment tonight. Can't rule out an isolated shower in our SW zones this evening as well. The eastern two thirds of the CWA should see a partly cloudy night and temps will cool a category or so compared to this morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday: Narrow upper ridge axis will set up shop over the CFWA by the start of the forecast period as a weak surface high slips south into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas by Sunday afternoon. In this case, limited diurnal convection will be in store for Sunday as most of the activity will remain confined to the mountains/foothills as a wedge of drier air filters into the northeast quadrant of the CFWA. Deepening upper low over the western Atlantic will slowly lift north as it becomes engulfed by the main branch of the subtropical jet by the end of the forecast period. On the other hand, a digging shortwave trough over the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region will breakdown the upper ridge axis as a plume of deep layer south-southwesterly flow filters in overnight Sunday. With associated DPVA residing within the mean flow and a good moisture fetch, expect enough forcing for ascent to place lingering convection across the western half of the CFWA Sunday night and kept PoPs in the forecast as a result. PWAT values quickly rise to 1.50"-2.00+" by Monday as the synoptic pattern introduces height falls and baggy upper troughiness settles over the region to go along with a stronger transport out of the GOM. Factor in modest destabilization and weak deep layer shear, expect for the excessive rainfall threat to return, especially in the mountains where daily convective chances will remain elevated through the forecast period.
Severe threat will be limited as profiles indicate more of a flood threat with skinny CAPE, warm cloud layer above 12,000', and weak mbE velocity vectors. Expect elevated PoPs to remain in the forecast Monday night, but the activity will have a diurnal emphasis as far as coverage and potential threats. Temperatures will remain slightly below-normal for afternoon highs and slightly above-normal for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday: An active pattern will be in store through at least midweek next week as the baggy upper troughiness lingers across the Eastern Seaboard, providing continuous height falls and synoptically enhanced forcing residing within the mean flow. This setup will overlay with typical summertime environmental parameters and thus, PoPs will remain elevated with convection expected during peak heating and possibly outside of the normal diurnal cycle. The excessive rainfall threat will uptick as a result as high PWAT values and weak deep layer shear will continue within this regime. Model guidance slowly, but surely push the trough axis across the area midweek and introduces mid- to upper-level northwesterly flow as the axis slips east of the area. Heights will begin to rebound in response and bring typical mid-summer convection and temperatures by Wednesday and beyond. One thing to note, the synoptic setup per model guidance would provide the potential for decaying/ongoing MCSs to dive into the area from the northwest as this activity rounds the northern peripheral of an upper anticyclone over the south-central CONUS by the latter half of the medium range. Otherwise, the Dog Days of Summer will likely make a return for the end of the forecast period as temperatures uptick to above-normal by D6/D7, with heat indices reaching into the upper 90s and lower 100s by next Thursday and Friday. If the pattern becomes favorable for potential MCSs late into the extended period, expect for a few temperature forecasts to bust due to unexpected cloud cover and precip chances.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Some degree of drying for much of the terminal area today with backdoor front settling through the area. Easterly flow above the PBL and frontal convergence will maintain an area of low MVFR to IFR cigs affecting KCLT and KHKY around the start of the period; guidance shows this burning off rather quickly with a lack of higher decks in those areas. KAVL may see valley stratus layer briefly this morning as well. Some high cloud cover will continue to stream across mainly the SC sites and makes it a bit more difficult to pin down cig trends. Low LCLs and CCLs suggest low cu will develop diurnally by mid to late morning and may be associated with patchy cigs. Deep dry air advecting in on low-level NE flow should limit mentionable convective coverage this aftn to the mountains and Savannah Valley, where that will have the least influence. Per CAMs have reduced KAVL mention to only VCSH. Winds will veer to SE by evening but diurnal convection should wane. The SE flow may develop stratus across parts of the area tonight, but not confident enough to mention cigs except at KAVL, having the added terrain lift.

Outlook: Drier air will remain over the central and eastern Carolinas Sunday again leaving scattered SHRA/TSRA only over the mountains. Moisture and unsettled weather return at times Mon to Wed with shortwave and moisture plume crossing the area.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.