NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS62 KGSP 111923 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 223 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry high pressure will linger over the area through Tuesday. A dry backdoor cold front will arrive from the north on Wednesday, with reinforcing cool high pressure returning through late week. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend and may affect our region late in the weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A quiet evening in store as winds continue to weaken in a loosening p/grad. Upper heights transition from broadly cyclonic to flat ridging through the period which will anchor a sfc high across the FA. This will lead to very good rad cooling tonight and mins will drop into the l20s mtn valleys and u20s across the non/mtns.
Dewpoint depressions drop sigfntly overnight as well, but the air just above the sfc remains quite dry, which will limit a dense fog threat most areas, except perhaps across the sw/rn NC mtn valleys.
Highs will struggle to reach a cat or so below normal Tue, even with high amts of sunshine all day. Overall, temps will rise a little more than today's values and feel less cold due to weaker winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 145 pm Monday: Confluent flow extending from an amplifying upper ridge across the West to the western and southern periphery of a trough across the northeast quadrant of the country will support sprawling low level high pressure that will cover much of the eastern half of the Conus through the period. This regime will be reinforced by a front that will cross the forecast area on Wed in association with a short wave trough that will dig across the Northeast. Moisture available to this front will be non-existent, so the only impact will be to reduce temperatures (from around normal Wed to several degrees below normal on Thu) and to advect an even drier air mass to the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 205 pm Monday: A highly amplified/complex split flow regime is forecast to cover the Conus through the extended period, with an upper ridge centered just east of the Miss Valley, and a low centered over New Mexico at the beginning of the period. Given the complexity of the pattern, it's not surprising that the global models still aren't offering much clarity/consensus regarding this latter feature and its potential impacts on Southeast sensible weather next weekend. The main source of contention is how the northern stream wave that will help kick the upper low out over the southern Great Plains will evolve, and what impact that will have on interaction between the northern and southern streams. The major global models all have differing "opinions" on this, although all feature some flavor of near-coastal cyclogenesis next weekend. The GFS remains quite insistent on a somewhat inland (and quite wet for our forecast area) solution. Meanwhile, Canadian and ECMWF guidance remain more "off-coast" with cyclogenesis. However, those two models are trending toward throwing a bit of light precip into the forecast area by the end of the weekend. All things considered, it still seems that the path of least resistance is to continue to advertise token chance PoPs Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to be right around normal through much of the period.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: A rather quiet TAF period with mainly SKC and VFR conds thru the period. Moderate gusts at KAVL will begin to weaken later this afternoon and maintain a modest nw/ly flow thru 04z. Elsewhere, occasional nw/ly to n/ly low-end gusts will linger for a few more hours and weaken to VRB or CALM overnight. Winds pickup sw/ly Tue and remain fairly weak thru the end of the period.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conds will persist through Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Greer, SC,