Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camarillo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...07/801 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area this morning. Weak offshore gradients are generating some locally gusty north to northeast winds in the 15-25 mph range.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no issues are expected. Sunny skies will prevail for all areas through the day.
Looking at morning TEMP STUDY data, boundary layer is a bit warmer and offshore pressure gradients are a bit stronger. So today will be about 2-5 degrees than Saturday across the area. The weak offshore winds will remain weak throughout the day.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Benign weather on tap for the short term an beyond. Weak upper level ridging will continue and hgts will rise from 582 dam today to 586 dam on Tuesday. Offshore flow will also continue through the period, peaking on Tuesday.

Skies should be mostly clear through the period with the exception of a 30 percent chc of some low clouds in the KLAX-KLGB area this morning and a more likely chc (~70 percent) chance on Monday morning.

There will be local offshore winds each morning. Offshore flow increases each day and peaks on Tuesday. There is no chc of advisory level gust today and Monday but low end advisory level gusts look possible Tuesday morning through and below the Santa Lucia Range and the western LA vlys and eastern VTA vlys.

Temperatures will be the main story. Rising hgts, offshore flow and sunny skies will all combine to bring 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees of warming each day. Max temps across the csts/vlys will rise from the upper 60s and 70s today to the the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Most max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday.

Min temps will be warmer than normal in the windier areas, but the dry air and clear skies will bring lower than normal temps in the wind sheltered areas.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...07/300 AM.

The GFS and EC as well as their ensembles all agree that the ridging from the west will continue through Friday. The upper high does weaken some and hgts will slowly fall during the 3 day period. The onshore flow which peaked on Tuesday will also slowly relax during the period.

While there will be some morning canyon winds they will not be of much consequence.

Still this forecast is all about the temps. Tuesday will be the warmest day for the csts of LA/VTA county as the relaxed offshore flow will lead 1 or 2 degrees of cooling on Wednesday. For the rest of the area, however, Wednesday will be the warmest day with max temps rising another 2 to 3 degrees over Tuesday's already super warm temps. Almost all areas will cool 1 to 2 degrees on Thursday as the high relaxes. Despite this cooling, most max temps will still end up 10 to 15 degrees over normal (4 to 8 for the nearshore area south of Pt Conception). Friday's temps will be similar to Thursday's.

Not the best agreement on the pattern/fcst for next weekend, but in general the high should continue to weaken and offshore flow should weaken further. Some mdls show a return of the marine layer as well. Some cooling each day is likely, but how much is still a bit of a mystery.

AVIATION
07/1912Z.

At 1822Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

Moderate to high confidence in KSBA, KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB after 03Z Monday, otherwise high confidence for all TAFs. There is a 30% chance of conds remaining VFR through the period at KLAX. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR to LIFR conds at the specified aforementioned sites, with conds potentially arriving as early as 03Z Mon for KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB and around 09Z for KOXR and KSBA.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of VFR conds persisting through the period, otherwise LIFR-IFR conds could arrive as early as 03Z Mon. Any easterly winds will remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE
07/800 AM.

For the outer waters, there is a 40-60% chance of low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through the week, especially across the western portions of the waters north of Santa Cruz Island during the afternoon and evening hours.

For the inner waters including the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a 30-50% of local northeast SCA level wind gusts from Ventura to Santa Monica as well as from Pismo Beach to Point Piedras Blancas each night and morning through Tuesday, and a 30% chance of reoccurring on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

There is a moderate chance of dense fog over the coastal waters through Monday morning. Confidence remains low on timing and coverage.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).