Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Camarillo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...13/212 PM.

The seemingly endless stretch of offshore flow continues today with gusts between 30-50 mph across the usual Santa Ana corridor areas of LA/Ventura Counties. Expecting this to continue through early evening. Then overnight a reinforcing surge of offshore flow is expected following another trough passing through the Great Basin. Models are indicating that this next surge will have a stronger northerly component to it, but also a stronger easterly component as well, so most of the same areas that were windy today should be 10-20 mph stronger than today with peak gusts around 75 mph across in the mountains.

Wednesday morning the NAM and some of the higher res models are indicating some additional strengthening of the winds as upper support and gradients increase. However, the EC ensembles are trending a little lighter Wednesday so somewhat lower confidence for that time frame. In any case, gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to continue through Wednesday, but decreasing no later than the afternoon as gradients start to weaken.

Significant weakening of the winds expected Thursday, and in fact many areas will receive an onshore wind by afternoon which should also bring some increasing humidities to the area to aid in the firefighting efforts.

On a different topic, the current upper level pattern has ushered in a very cold air mass and both afternoon and overnight temperatures have dropped from recent days. And some interior area temperatures (Antelope Valley, far interior SLO County)
dropped below 20 degrees last night. Expecting at least another couple of nights of that and likely even colder tonight than last night with lows between 12 and 16 in some areas. These would not be records as those are in the single digits across the AV and 12 for Paso Robles. In any event, there are a number of freeze and frost headlines in effect.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/226 PM.

Thankfully there is high confidence in a quiet period of weather with relatively light onshore winds Friday through the weekend and much improved humidities. Friday should be the coolest today with moderate onshore flow in place and possibly even some morning low clouds and fog. Morning stratus will likely extend into the weekend but rising heights and thicknesses along with weakening onshore flow should lead to at least a slight warming trend.

Still some concerns for next Monday and/or Tuesday as models show another inside slider trough moving through the Great Basin. EC ensemble solutions are mixed but so far leaning towards a light to possibly low end moderate Santa Ana event. The upper level pattern for this weekend and early next week has been exhibiting quite a bit of jumping around so confidence is on the lower side still.
Some earlier ensemble solutions had even indicating a small chance of rain during this period but more recent solutions have steered drier.

AVIATION
13/1744Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

High confidence in VFR conds with only a 10 percent chc of MVFR conds in smoke for the Los Angeles County coastal terminals. Gusty N to NE winds are expected to affect much of the forecast area, especially sites in Ventura and LA County. There will be areas of LLWS, and moderate to locally strong UDDF and turbulence, especially near the foothills and mtns.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conds thru the pd. However, there is a 10% chance of 4-5SM FU and/or bkn025 smoke layer at any point. There is a 30-40% chance of an east wind component reaching 8 kt tonight with best chances from 14Z and 20Z.

KBUR...High confidence in the CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds. Maximum wind gusts may be off +/- 10 kts and wind group changes may be off +/- 3 hours. LLWS is likely, especially after 00Z through 18Z. Moderate to locally strong turbulence and UDDF will also impact the terminal during the period.

MARINE
13/132 PM.

In the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level E to NE winds will persist in the southern zone (PZZ676) and eastern portions of the central zone (PZZ673) thru Wednesday morning and late tonight, respectively. There is a 30-40% chance for E to NE SCA winds to return Tuesday through Wednesday in the southeastern portion of the central zone. Local Gale force gusts are possible (20% chance) through Tuesday morning, with slightly greater chances in the southern Outer Waters (30-40% chance) late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Seas will be at or above SCA levels thru this evening for zones PZZ673 and PZZ670. Conds will be below SCA levels Wednesday night thru Friday morning, then a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds Friday morning through late night from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, except for a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore during the morning hours Tuesday and Wednesday, SCA level conds are not expected thru Friday night.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, Gale force winds are expected much of the time from Ventura to eastern Santa Cruz Island southward through Wednesday afternoon. Winds may drop below Gale force to SCA levels at times through Wednesday, especially Tuesday evening. SCA level NE winds may continue into Wednesday evening, then benign conds are expected Wednesday night thru Friday night.
Elsewhere, there is a 20% chance of SCA level E winds late tonight thru Wednesday morning.

In the southern inner waters. Gale force winds are expected from Malibu to Point Mugu and out to Anacapa Island much of the time thru Wednesday afternoon, though winds may drop below Gale force at times, especially Tuesday evening. Then, SCA level NE winds will likely continue into Wednesday evening. Elsewhere, SCA level NE winds are likely at times thru Wednesday afternoon. This is especially likely (70% chance) thru the San Pedro Channel out to Avalon and Two Harbors on Catalina Island this afternoon, and again during the late night thru morning hours tonight thru Wed.
There is a 30% chance of Gale Force winds thru the San Pedro Channel to Catalina Island during those periods thru Wednesday afternoon, with best chances Wednesday morning. Benign conds are then expected Wednesday night through Friday.

BEACHES
13/132 PM.

Another round of moderate to locally strong Santa Ana Winds have made it to the region, creating hazardous conditions nearshore and through the San Pedro Channel. Through tonight and again late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon, NE to E winds may create large breaking waves to Avalon and Two Harbors, creating hazardous conditions and possible minor coastal flooding, with highest chances Wednesday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Freeze Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 38-343-344-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PST Tuesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect from 4 AM Tuesday to noon PST Wednesday for zones 88-354-355-358-362-369-371-372-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Frost Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-341. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Freeze Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 346>348-357-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zones 370-373-377. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>376-378>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Wednesday for zones 345-352-353-356-357. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).