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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 300 Am Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 17 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed night..Western portion, W winds 15 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ600 300 Am Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 10z or 2 am pst, a 1025 mb high was centered 350 nm sw of point conception and a 957 mb low was over the gulf of alaska. Gusty nw winds will affect the outer waters near and south of the channel islands through tonight.

FXUS66 KLOX 041249 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 449 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
04/1237 AM.

Breezy north to northeast winds will continue through Tuesday or while afternoon high temperatures gradually warm under a ridge.
There is a slight chance of light rain Wednesday evening and Thursday across the central coast. It will cool back to near normal by Friday, before another round of Santa Ana winds arrive next weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...04/253 AM.

Ridging with hgts near 580 dam along with 3 to 5 mb of offshore flow from both the north and east will bring two days of warming and well above normal temperatures to the area today and Tuesday.
Today will start out partly to mostly cloudy as a weak upper level disturbance passes overhead with plenty of mid and high level clouds. These clouds will pass by early or mid afternoon leaving skies mostly clear through Tuesday. Since there is no upper level or thermal support for the offshore flow there will not be too much in the way of canyon winds. Currently there is a wind advisory in effect through noon for the Simi Valley Thousand Oaks area but there is a fair chc the winds will not quite reach advisory levels. Otherwise while there will be plenty of gusty canyon winds this morning and Tuesday morning few if any of the gusts will reach advisory levels. Max temps will be the most talked about weather phenomena for the next two days. The higher than normal hgts and offshore flow will combine to bring 4 to 8 degrees of warming today and 3 to 6 degrees on Tuesday. On Tuesday most max temps across the csts/vlys will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s or 10 to 15 degrees above norms.

The ridge flattens out on Wednesday and hgts drop to 578 dam. More importantly the offshore flow weakens dramatically and even turns onshore in the afternoon from the west. These two factors will combine to knock about 10 degrees off the the coastal temps and 4 to 8 degrees from the vly max temps. The hgt falls will arrive too late to affect the temps across the Antelope Vly and increase in westerly onshore flow will likely warm that area 3 to 6 degrees.

More onshore flow, slight cyclonic turning aloft and most importantly an eddy will likely bring low clouds to portions of the LA coast and the Central Coast Wednesday night. A little bit of energy from an approaching trof will bring a slight chc of light rain to NW SLO county.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...04/304 AM.

A weak trof ripples over the state on Thursday with almost all of its energy staying up north. It will bring a slight chc of some rain to SLO county but amounts will likely only amount to a trace to 5 hundredths of an inch if anything. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. There will be onshore flow and hgts will lower to 572 dam. All of these factors will combine to lower max temps 1 to 3 degrees at the cst (their big cool down came the previous day), 4 to 8 degrees in the vlys and 10 to 15 degrees across the interior. Despite this cooling most max temps south of Pt Conception will be a few degrees warmer than normal.

The trof will push to the east overnight and fast moving NW flow will set up over the state. There will likely be some gusty NW winds in the mtns and across the SBA county south coast. Cooler air filtering in behind the trof will knock a degree or two off of temps making Friday the coolest of the next 7.

Ensemble based forecasts agree that a ridge will push into the state from the SW and that moderate offshore flow will develop.
Low end wind advisories are possible. Max temps will bump up each day and will be above normal both days.

AVIATION
04/1243Z.

Around 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 600 feet deep with an inversion top at 1100 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

High confidence in TAFs except moderate confidence in TAFs for KLGB, KLAX and KPRB with a 20% chc of IFR conds through 17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence TAF through 17Z then high confidence.
There is a 25% chc of BKN007 conds through 17Z. There is a 20% chance of a 6 kt east wind component through 16Z Mon, and again 09Z-17Z Tues.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chc of a north wind after 00Z.

MARINE
04/213 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in forecast.
Through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing across PZZ673/676, with a 50-60% chance of SCA winds across portions of PZZ670. Seas at or above SCA levels will likely continue into the weekend, with a slight dip below advisory levels possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds returning to the waters south of Point Conception. There is a 50-60% chance of winds expanding across all the outer waters on Thursday and lasting through at least Friday, with a 20% chance of increasing to Gale Force levels at times.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in forecast. Seas are currently near 10 feet with SCA level winds gusting across the southwest portion of the waters, with a 40-50% chance of seas and winds continuing through the evening. For Tuesday through Friday afternoon, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level seas, and a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds during the afternoon/evening hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Malibu this morning, and again tonight into Tuesday morning. There is a 30-40% chance of NW SCA level winds across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel during the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday and Thursday. Elsewhere and otherwise, moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below advisory levels through Friday.

BEACHES
04/209 AM.

A long period NW swell (17-19 seconds) will lead to high surf of 8-11 feet for the Central Coast beaches by this afternoon and into Tuesday morning. A brief decrease in surf heights may occur Tuesday afternoon and evening before another long period NW swell (18-20 seconds) moves across the coastal waters Tuesday night through Friday afternoon. Surf heights up to 10-14 feet across Central Coast beaches may be possible Tuesday night into Friday, with 6-8 feet possible across Ventura County beaches Wednesday through Thursday night. Surf heights will be highest across west and northwest- facing beaches.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones 88-374. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Ventura
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Mon -- 04:23 AM PST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:17 AM PST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:21 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:53 PM PST     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:34 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:41 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ventura, California, Tide feet

Port Hueneme
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Mon -- 04:24 AM PST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM PST     3.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:20 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 PM PST     3.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:40 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

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