Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA

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Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 050410 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 910 PM PDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
04/909 PM.

A low pressure system will bring much cooler weather Monday through Wednesday, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass is likely to remain through the rest of the week with extensive low clouds.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...04/908 PM.

The approaching upper level low pressure system to our southwest combined with strong onshore flow has resulted in a deepening marine layer pattern. As of this evening, ACARS data is showing the marine layer depth around 2200 feet across the LA basin, and further deepening is expected overnight. Satellite imagery showing a rapid surge of low clouds inland into the valleys this evening, and will spread into the lower coastal slopes overnight. This deepening marine layer pattern combined with some synoptic lift from the approaching upper level low will bring areas of drizzle and light rain to much of the forecast area by Monday morning.
Most areas will see a 20 percent chance of measurable light rain on Monday morning, but will bump up pops to around 40 percent for favored upslope areas such as the Santa Ynez Range, Santa Monica mountains, and the foothills of the Dan Gabriels.

As the closed low pressure system moves into the area on Monday afternoon into Monday night, there will be increased upper level forcing and instability that will bring a convective threat over the region, especially focused for Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties as well as the LA/Ventura county mountains and Antelope Valley. By Monday afternoon, the bullseye of greatest instability is focused across the mountains of Santa Babara and Ventura counties, where lifted index values fall to between -4 and -8, and CAPE values climb to around 1500 J/kg. On Monday night, model cross sections show increased upper level forcing and moisture focused across San Luis Obispo County, with MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg, resulting in the potential for elevated nocturnal convection. HRR and RAP models confirming SLO county as focus area with consistent higher QPF values on Monday night.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours but fairly strong winds aloft should encourage descent storm motion. This should minimize the flash flood threat unless we start to see training of storms which is a possibility. With some fairly strong winds aloft and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, we could see some locally strong downdraft wind gusts up to 50 mph with storms on Monday afternoon into Monday night. Ensembles are strongly supporting this storm scenario with virtually all members from both the GEFS and EPS showing measurable rain in Paso Robles, Santa Maria, and San Luis Obispo Monday night into Tuesday, and roughly 50 percent of them indicating over a half inch. With the steering flow from east to west expect those storms to drift over to the coastal zones and even over the adjacent coastal waters north of Pt Conception. While most of the storms are expected to be wet on Monday and Monday night, there is the potential for isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of storms that could trigger new fire starts, especially in the fine fuels across the interior.

*** From previous discussion ***

Parameters aren't quite as favorable elsewhere, especially in LA County, though there is a vort lobe that moves through there Monday afternoon. Soundings are noticeably less favorable there so chances for storms at this point are much lower than areas to the west. Will likely keep the slight chances there anyway for now, but definitely bump up chances for areas north of Pt Conception, and especially across the interior.

Very few changes were made to the forecast after Monday, mainly due to uncertainty with the upper low movement. Most of the models keep the low in the area through Wednesday before pushing east, though exactly where it moves day to day could result in shifting areas of emphasis with regard to convective activity. Currently the forecast has most of the pops south of Pt Conception later Tuesday into Wednesday as the low starts its move east but this may need to be expanded back towards the north, especially if the movement is slower than expected.

Otherwise, with the upper low nearby and continued strong onshore flow (9-10mb each afternoon), look for continued deep marine layer stratus and areas of drizzle each morning with very slow clearing at best this week. The convective activity may have some impact on the stratus coverage, but likely more so along the Central Coast where storms and outflow boundaries may disrupt coverage.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...04/201 PM.

There is high confidence that a cooler than normal weather pattern will continue through next weekend and likely beyond. Model clusters are in close alignment with the deterministic models which bring another upper low down to southern California next weekend with several ensemble members indicating measurable rain falling across the area, especially later in the weekend when the upper low is expected to be almost overhead. And given the location certainly can't rule out thunderstorms returning. At the very least we're looking at a continuation of well below normal temperatures and a deep and slow clearing marine layer which mirrors CPC's below normal temperature forecast through at least the middle of the month.

AVIATION
05/0021Z.

At 0010Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 2200 feet.
The top of the inversion was 4400 feet with a temperature of 21 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. Expecting rapid inland push of low clouds this evening, reaching the lower coastal slopes late tonight. For coastal and valley sites, high confidence of cigs returning tonight and persisting through much of the forecast period, however timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. With the deepening moist layer, looking for areas of drizzle or light rain. There is a 20-30 percent chance of showers/thunderstorms by Monday afternoon across most areas north of Point Conception and mountains/deserts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecast. There is a 20 percent chance of measurable light rain or drizzle on Monday.
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 1-2 hours of current forecast. There is a 20 percent chance of measurable light rain or drizzle on Monday.

MARINE
04/758 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Tonight through Friday, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal and the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast.
Tonight through Friday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For Monday into Tuesday, an upper level low pressure system will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the area, mainly north of Point Conception.

BEACHES
04/759 PM.

A south swell of 2 to 4 feet with a 16 second period will arrive on the south facing beaches Monday and Tuesday. At the same time, a full moon tide of near 7 feet is expected into Monday evening.
At this time, local wave sets of 5 feet may be possible, but minor coastal overflow at the time of high tide is not expected to affect any areas of the coast.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA

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Link to 5 minute data for KOXR

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Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California

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