Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
La Crescenta-Montrose, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:15PM Saturday October 19, 2019 12:49 PM PDT (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:38PMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 835 Am Pdt Sat Oct 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight..From point mugu to santa Monica and out into the santa Monica bay, N winds 15 to 25 kt. Otherwise, W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined 4 to 6 feet dominant period 9 seconds.
Sun..From point mugu to santa Monica and out into the santa Monica bay, N winds 15 to 25 kt. Otherwise, nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Sun night..From point mugu to santa Monica, N to ne winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Mon..From point mugu to santa Monica and S of palos verdes, ne winds 15 to 25 kt becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 835 Am Pdt Sat Oct 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1027 mb surface high was centered 1200 nm west of point conception extending to a 1020 mb high in colorado. A 1009 mb surface low was over western arizona. Moderate to strong nw winds will affect the outer waters through Monday, with steep combined seas across all of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Crescenta-Montrose, CA
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location: 34.26, -118.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 191808 aab
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1108 am pdt Sat oct 19 2019
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 19 749 am.

Gusty northerly winds will continue over much of the area today,
especially over the mountains, the santa barbara south coast, and
santa clarita valley. By Sunday night, winds gradually shift
northeast, bringing weak santa ana winds to most of los angeles
county and the ventura mountains. Temperatures are expected to
rise above normal on Monday and Tuesday.

Short term (tdy-mon) 19 905 am.

***update***
the focus of the short-term forecast is the winds and associated
fire weather risk. Low relative humidity observations this morning
in los angeles county in addition to the forecast windy conditions
will add much of the county to the red flag warning that already
included the santa barbara county mountains. See the fire weather
forecast for details. No other impactful changes from the previous
short-term discussion.

***from previous discussion***
skies were clear across the entire forecast area this morning.

For the next 7 days, there will be no issue with sky cover or
precipitation chances--it will likely be mostly clear with no
chance of rain across the entire forecast area, the main issues
will be wind, and the extended period of warm and very dry
conditions across the region.

Sba-smx pressure gradients were -4.2 mb, just 0.2 mb more
strongly offshore than at this time on thu. Interestingly
enough, the gradients between sba bfl and lax bfl were also
exactly 0.2 mb more strongly offshore than at this time on thu.

With less in the way of cold air advection or upper level wind
support, winds were not quite as strong or as widespread, as
expected. However, the raws station at montecito hills reported a
peak gusts to 73 mph between 1 and 2 am. At other windy locations
in the mountains and south coast of sba county and the mountains
of l.A. Vtu counties, winds gusts have generally been in the 40
to 50 mph range.

Advisory level winds will continue in the mtns of l.A, vtu,
and sba counties today. Though winds may drop off for a while
across the south coast of sba county later this morning, they
should increase again this afternoon. Advisory level winds are
also expected to develop on the central coast and in the antelope
valley this afternoon. Gusty north winds will likely begin to
develop in the eastern ventura county valleys, the santa clarita
and san fernando valleys, the santa monica mountains, and coastal
sections of l.A. County from malibu to the hollywood hills this
afternoon, but are expected to remain below advisory levels at
least during the day. MAX temps today should be similar to those
on Thu in most areas, not too far from normal for mid to late
october.

A short wave trough will move through the pac NW and into the
great basin later today and tonight, with a vort lobe pushing
across the forecast area, winds aloft will increase and subsidence
will overspread the region. At the same time, n-s surface
gradients are expected to increase. This should cause a bump up in
winds in the mtns, across the south coast of sba county and in the
santa clarita valley tonight, so have upgraded high wind watches
to high wind warnings in these areas. Wind gusts to 60 mph are
expected, and isolated gusts to 70 to 75 mph are likely near
montecito hills and in the peaks above the interstate 5 corridor.

Winds will likely increase to advisory levels in the eastern
valleys of vtu county, the san fernando valley, the santa monica
mountains and in coastal sections of l.A, county tonight. The
greatest uncertainty is how strong winds will get in the santa
monica mountains. They will surely reach advisory levels, but have
left the high wind watch in place there to allow the next shift to
look at one more computer model run before committing to a warning
there.

Across l.A. County coastal areas, this could be a fairly
widespread northerly wind event, affecting much of the westside
and hollywood, not just confined to locations immediately below
passes and canyons from malibu to the hollywood hills.

Winds will diminish on the central coast this evening, and in the
antelope valley late tonight. The gusty winds will begin to
diminish across the mountains and south coast of sba county and in
coastal sections of l.A. County by noon Sunday, but should linger
at advisory or warning levels in l.A. And ventura county mtns and
valleys into the mid afternoon hours. MAX temps on Sunday will
likely jump up several degrees, especially west of the mountains.

For Sunday night and Monday, low level flow will turn more
northeasterly. This should shift the focus of the winds mainly to
los angeles and ventura counties. Upper support will be weaker,
but gradients may be sufficient to produce some marginal advisory
level northeast winds late Sun night and Mon morning. MAX temps
will jump several more degrees on mon, especially west of the
mountains, with highs reaching or exceeding 90 degrees in some
coastal and valley areas.

Long term (tue-fri) 19 439 am.

Heights and thicknesses will continue to rise on Tue as a strong
upper high noses into the region from the eastern pacific.

Gradients will remain offshore, possible even enough for some
locally gusty winds across portions of l.A. And vtu counties, but
nothing at advisory levels expected. Tuesday should be the warmest
day for coastal and valleys, with highs in some of the warmer
locations possibly getting close to 95 degrees.

The upper high will be forced westward Wed and Thu as trough
drops southward out of canada and into the rockies and great
basin. Gradients will turn weakly onshore Wednesday and Thursday.

This should bring some several degrees of cooling, especially to
coastal and valley areas. It is possible that some low clouds
could briefly push into immediate coastal sections during the late
night through morning areas Tue night Wed or more likely wed
night Thu morning, but odds favor skies remaining clear.

The upper high in the pacific will begin to move back toward the
west coast on fri, and low level gradients turn sharply offshore.

This should bring another round of gusty offshore winds to the
region, with ensemble members showing advisory level winds likely.

There should also be significant warming, especially west of the
mountains, and very dry conditions are expected once again.

Aviation 19 1805z.

At 1730z, there was no marine layer at klax.

High confidence inVFR conditions at all terminals thru the
period. There is a chance of periods of moderate to strong
turbulence at terminals south of point conception.

Strong and gusty W winds can be expected at kpmd and kwjf this
afternoon and tonight. For kwjf, there is a 50% chance of MVFR
vsbys and a 10%-20% chance of lifr vsbys due to blowing dust and
sand for late this afternoon into early evening as expected wind
gusts reach around 40 kt.

Klax... Hi confidence inVFR conditions thru Sun afternoon. There
is a 50%-60% chance of north cross winds up to 25 kt 06z-10z with
lighter cross winds up to 15 kt 10z-14z. The timing of the cross
winds may be off + - an hour or two, and there is a small chance
the cross winds could be even stronger at times.

Kbur... Hi confidence inVFR conditions thru Sun morning. Gusty
north winds are expected from about 03z-12z, with a 40% chance
winds could gust over 20 kt at times.

Marine 19 839 am.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Gales are in effect
until this evening mainly west and south of point arguello.

Observations remain near gale criteria and the winds are forecast
to strengthen again this afternoon and evening. A small craft
advisory is also in effect for the nearshore waters north of
point sal and into the santa barbara channel as a mix of short-
period seas and winds will linger into tonight.

There is a 60 percent chance of small craft advisory level
northerly winds developing nearshore between point mugu and east
to santa monica. These winds could extend aways out into santa
monica bay. While coverage will be limited this evening and into
Sunday morning, there is a better chance of broader areal coverage
on Sunday evening. There is a 50 percent chance that this small
craft advisory will be extended.

Winds will turn from northerly to northeasterly between Sunday
night and Monday, affecting mainly the nearshore portions of the
inner waters inside the southern california bight. Winds away from
will weaken and drop below small craft advisory levels into
Wednesday.

Beaches 19 339 am.

Surf of 9 to 12 feet will subside a bit more slowly than earlier
thinking on exposed west-facing beaches of the central coast. Surf
will subside to 7 to 10 feet late this morning and linger into
Sunday morning.

Fire weather 19 1019 am.

Gusty northerly winds will be widespread across the region today
through Sunday evening, with the strongest burst of winds late
this afternoon through Sunday morning when the tightest north-
south offshore pressure gradients coincide with peak upper level
wind support. The strongest winds tonight through Sunday morning
are expected to be across the santa ynez mountains and adjacent
foothills of the santa barbara south coast, as well as the
interstate 5 corridor across the mountains and santa clarita
valley, as well as the santa monica mountains where wind gusts of
40 to 60 mph will be common except isolated gusts up to 75 mph
near whitaker peak and montecito hills. Other areas prone to
northerly winds will generally have wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph
range through Sunday evening. The lax-bakersfield and santa
barbara-bakersfield gradients peaked at -5.7 mb and -5.9 mb
respectively this morning, and are expected to peak between -6.0
and -6.5 mb late late tonight or Sunday morning. Local studies
indicate these north-south pressure gradients that we are
expecting are very rare for october (exceeding 97th percentile),
indicating this is a rare strong northerly wind event for october,
giving greater confidence in expanding the red flag warnings.

Minimum humidities will generally range between 8 and 20 percent
today through Sunday. Recoveries at night will be moderate across
the north facing mountains with poor recoveries in the foothills
and downslope mountain valley areas. With humidities trending
drier than earlier expected, the red flag warnings have now been
expanded to include the mountains of los angeles and ventura
counties (including the santa monicas), as well as the san
fernando and santa clarita valleys. The strongest sundowner winds
are expected tonight into Sunday morning across the santa ynez
mountains and santa barbara south coast with red flag warnings
remaining in effect through Sunday evening. There will be
widespread elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions for
many other portions of southwest california through Sunday due to
the northerly winds and areas of low humidities.

The winds are expected to shift to northeasterly Sunday night
into Monday when gusts between 25 and 40 mph will occur across
wind prone areas of los angeles and ventura counties(strongest in
the los angeles county mountains), which will maintain elevated to
brief critical fire weather conditions. The offshore winds will
further weaken on Tuesday morning. Minimum humidities will
generally range between 10 and 20 percent on Monday and Tuesday,
while high temperatures will climb to between 85 and 95 degrees.

Another warm and potentially very dry santa ana wind event will be
possible by next Friday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 9 am pdt Sunday for zones
34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 8 pm pdt this evening for zones
34-35. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until noon pdt Sunday for zone 39.

(see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to noon pdt
Sunday for zone 41. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 3 pm pdt
Sunday for zones 44-45-547. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind watch in effect from 6 pm pdt this evening through
Sunday afternoon for zone 46. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 6 pm pdt this evening for zones
52>54. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind warning in effect from 6 pm this evening to noon
pdt Sunday for zone 52. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind warning in effect from 6 pm this evening to 3 pm
pdt Sunday for zones 53-54-88. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Sunday for zone 59.

(see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 10 pm pdt Sunday for zones
239-252. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening
for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pdt Sunday for zone
650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to 9 am
pdt Sunday for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Monday for zone
670. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening for zones
673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions possible
over los angeles and ventura counties Monday due to hot and dry
conditions and locally breezy santa ana winds. Critical fire
weather conditions possible late next week as santa ana winds are
expected to return.

Public... Db
aviation... Sirard
marine... Hall sirard
beaches... Hall
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 21 mi55 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 65°F1014.3 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 34 mi53 min 68°F3 ft
BAXC1 34 mi55 min SE 5.1 G 6
PSXC1 34 mi55 min S 6 G 8.9
PXAC1 34 mi61 min SE 5.1 G 7
PFDC1 36 mi55 min SE 4.1 G 5.1
PFXC1 36 mi55 min S 5.1 G 5.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 37 mi55 min 65°F1014.5 hPa
PRJC1 37 mi55 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1
AGXC1 38 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1
46256 39 mi49 min 66°F3 ft
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 44 mi56 min 67°F4 ft
46253 48 mi49 min 67°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA6 mi56 minVar 510.00 miFair76°F34°F22%1012.4 hPa
Los Angeles, Whiteman Airport, CA7 mi59 minESE 610.00 miClear77°F33°F21%1014.9 hPa
Van Nuys, Van Nuys Airport, CA12 mi58 minSSE 710.00 miFair81°F30°F16%1012.3 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA17 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair77°F51°F40%1012.9 hPa
El Monte, CA18 mi64 minVar 310.00 miFair73°F41°F31%1014.6 hPa
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA18 mi58 minSSW 610.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1013.6 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA23 mi56 minVar 310.00 miFair74°F54°F50%1013.6 hPa
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA23 mi56 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds73°F57°F59%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUR

Wind History from BUR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE5S8S9S4S3SE3CalmNW4NW3N6NW4E5E4NE3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE6SE65
1 day agoS9
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NW9E6E5S3CalmN9N7SW3SE5E8E6S8
2 days agoCalmS8S9SW8S5SE54E3E7SE8CalmCalmCalmNW3SE5SE3CalmCalmSE3SE7S8S7SE5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:20 AM PDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:38 AM PDT     2.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:36 PM PDT     5.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:48 PM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.633.23.132.92.933.33.84.24.7554.74.23.42.61.81.20.80.80.91.3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM PDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM PDT     2.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:27 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:41 PM PDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM PDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.13.33.33.132.933.33.84.34.85.15.14.94.33.62.71.91.20.80.811.4

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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.