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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 845 Am Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft.

PZZ600 845 Am Pst Sat Dec 2 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 16z or 8 am pst, a 1028 mb high was 600 nm west of point conception and a 1021 mb low was over the channel islands.

FXUS66 KLOX 021810 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1010 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
01/736 PM.

Cool and breezy conditions are expected through at least Saturday, with the strongest winds in the mountains. A warming trend will start Saturday and continue through the middle of next week, along with breezy Santa Ana winds. Cooler onshore flow will return for the end of next week, with a small chance of light rain.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...02/908 AM.

***UPDATE***

Generally light winds and clear skies supported patchy frost/freeze conditions to the coldest coastal valleys earlier this morning. With cold air advection easing, we'll begin our several day warm up today with daytime temperatures near normal.

The focus of today will be the weak Santa Ana expected early next week with warmest areas possibly topping off in the low 80s by Tuesday or Wednesday. Another focus will be a likely inside slide storm later in the week with the largest impact likely wind, although 20 percent of guidance shows just enough over water trajectory for the potential of light rain or drizzle.

***From Previous Discussion***

Not much in the way of weather at all forecast for the three day short term. At the upper levels a ridge will move into the state and strengthen with time. Hgts will rise from the 566 dam values ydy afternoon to 573 dam today. On Sunday they will increase further to 581 dam and then slip a dam or 2 as the ridge gets a little wobbly on Monday. At the sfc there will be 1 to mb of offshore from the east and 4 to 5 mb from the north.

While the offshore flow will keep the low clouds away a grip of mid and high level clouds are forecast to move over the area Sunday through Monday morning and skies will likely be mostly cloudy during that period. Skies should be mostly clear through Sunday morning and again on Monday afternoon.

Rising hgts and the offshore flow will kick off a three day warming trend for most of the area. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of warming today, 1 to 3 tomorrow (the warming depends greatly on how thick the cirrus clouds are) and finally another 3 to 6 degrees on Monday. Max temps will warm from near normals today to 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday.

There is enough offshore flow from the north to bring gusty morning canyon winds each morning but there is not enough upper support to create advisory level gusts. There is also enough of a north push across SBA county to create Sundowners each evening and there could be a few sites with 45 mph advisory level gusts.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...02/302 AM.

Both long range deterministic and ensemble based forecast solutions agree that the low impact but quite pleasant mostly clear weather will continue next week. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the next 7 for the coasts and vlys as most areas will warm 1 to 3 degrees although there will be pockets of 3 to 6 degree warming across the LA csts/vlys. almost all of the csts/vlys will have max temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s or 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Offshore flow weakens on Wednesday and the csts/vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees but the interior will warm 1 to 3 additional degrees. The offshore flow weakens further on Thursday as the ridge begins to move to the east. As a result max temps will drop 2 to 4 degrees but will still end up 4 to 8 degrees above normal.

A large inside slider will start its run down the CA/NV border on Friday. Rapidly lowering hgts and a switch to onshore flow from the west will conspire to knock 4 to 8 degrees off of the max temps returning them to near normal.

The inside slider will reach the CA/NV/AZ triple point late Friday afternoon and will set up a decent likely advisory level north wind event.

AVIATION
02/1809Z.

At 1650Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep with a weak marine inversion. The top of the inversion was at 3000 ft with a temperature of 11 degree C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs. The only exception will be a 50-60 percent chance of dense fog for KPRB late tonight.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR TAF. A 6kt east wind component is possible after 10Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE
02/901 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds continuing across PZZ673/676 and a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level seas, but winds are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For today and Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. On Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level seas, highest on Wednesday, but winds will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 20-40% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica with high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.
For Wednesday, high confidence in wind and seas remaining below SCA levels.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM PST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 AM PST     3.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:22 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:26 AM PST     4.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:42 PM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mugu Lagoon (ocean pier), California, Tide feet

Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:29 AM PST     3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 AM PST     3.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:33 AM PST     4.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:44 PM PST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Hueneme, California, Tide feet

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