Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Porters Neck, NC

UPDATE
Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAFs. Low clouds will be slower to break up as front lifts slowly northward through later today. Sea fog will also affect coastal areas.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Sfc front meandering near the NC-SC border. Main threat of pcpn associated with mid-level impulse to move off the Southeast NC Coast during these pre-dawn hrs. Some drier air, ie. 40s sfc dewpoints have advected into Southeast NC. While south of the stalled front, 50s dewpoints remains. Once clouds associated with pcpn move off the coast, expect low stratus and fog to take its place. This already evident, especially south of the front across Northeast SC. The front will meander back north of the FA during this aftn and evening with 50s to around 60 sfc dewpoints surging back to the north along with the warmer temps themselves. will likely see a range of temps, with highs in the 70s common across southern portions of the FA, with 60s across the northern portions of the FA. The push of the hier sfc dewpoints northward and SE-S winds accompanying it, may result in sea fog that may periodically push onshore especially later this morning into this evening. As wind directions become SSW- SW tonight, the sea fog may be limited with its onshore movement across locations from Cape Fear to Murrells Inlet. The sfc pg is expected to tighten tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which will keep SW-WSW winds active, keeping fog development over land at bay and further keeping any sea fog from coming onshore.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure shifting off the New England coast will drag a cold front towards and through the region on Sunday, although zonal flow aloft means the front will be slowing down and pivoting into an increasingly west-east orientation as it pushes through.
Thus, weak forcing for ascent can be expected along the front, leading to only isolated showers during the morning. The diurnal heating cycle may help enhance shower coverage during the afternoon as abnormal warmth and moisture support at least weak instability. Although guidance is trending towards a cloudier solution, which would preclude reaching record highs, temps are still expected to reach well into the 70s on Sunday and approach record territory.

As the front settles southward on Sunday night, much cooler air will seep in via northeasterly winds. Moisture trapped under the frontal inversion will keep overcast skies in play and weak isentropic upglide over the shallow cool air mass will support at least patchy light rain during the night amidst lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled weather looks to remain the primary story through the long term period as a cold air damming wedge holds in place while a series of low pressure systems pass by to the north.
Early in the week, continued isentropic ascent looks to support periods of light rain beneath otherwise overcast skies with highs near to below-normal. Rainfall amounts of several hundredths to a couple tenths are expected over Monday and Tuesday. Confidence remains low for the latter half of the week as specifics regarding the areal extent and amounts of rainfall with each wave of low pressure vary amongst the model guidance.
In general, the expectation is for the highest rainfall amounts (>0.50" in 24 hrs) to stay to our north and west, but periods of light to perhaps moderate rain are still expected and can bring up to a few tenths of an inch by the end of the work week.
Temperatures also carry lower confidence as this will depend on the state of the cold air damming wedge each day, but a gradual increase in temperatures is expected through most of the week until a cold front pushes through late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A meandering frontal boundary will continue to lift slowly northward as a warm front this aftn into tonight with conditions improving to VFR with possible MVFR/IFR in sea fog. Confidence remains low with the associated conditions and timing.

Fog has dissipated inland but will continue to impact coastal terminals at times due to the development of sea fog moving onshore through tonight as winds become more onshore,resulting in possible LIFR conditions. The inland terminals should improve to MVFR/VFR conditions as ceilings and vsby improve- some. NE thru SE winds around 5 kt will become SW from north to south as front lifts north and will increase to around 10 kt with some higher gusts. A low level SW 30 to 50 kt jet develops overnight and may produce some LLWS as winds could be up to 30 to 40 kts at 2k ft.

Extended Outlook...High confidence that restrictions will return Sunday into Monday as cold front drops down into the area. Lower confidence as to how long these conditions will persist with intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible through Thursday as front lingers in the area.

MARINE
Through Tonight...An east-west oriented and meandering frontal boundary draped across portions of the area waters, will lift back north as a warm front today. Sfc pg rather relaxed south of the front, but tight enough north of the front to keep NE winds around 15 kt initially north of Cape Fear thru midday.
Winds will become S-SW around 10 kt throughout later this afternoon and especially early this evening. The sfc pg will tighten ahead of an approaching cold front, along with a low level SW-WSW 30-40 kt jet. SW winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt, but may be difficult to mix down those hier winds as frequent 25+ kt gusts given the cold sfc based marine layer and the offshore extent of those cold SSTs across our waters. As a result, kept winds and seas just below SCA thresholds tonight. Another issue will be the extent of sea fog today into this evening before winds increase from the SW-WSW, an unfavorable trajectory for sea fog to fully develop across the coastal waters but may develop across the adjacent offshore waters given how far off the coast those cold SSTs extend. However, will have those upper 50s to lower 60s sfc dewpoints advect across those cold shelf waters and could result in additional low stratus. Seas 1 to 3 ft today will build to 3 to 5 ft tonight. The 9+ second period easterly swell will become second nature to the increasing short period SW wind driven waves.

Sunday through Wednesday...
Southwesterly winds on Sunday ahead of a cold front veer to northeasterly during the evening as the front settles southward.
A tightening gradient will lead to enhanced winds in the 15-20 kt range over Sunday night and Monday before gradually subsiding over Monday night into Tuesday. Light north to northeast winds should continue through Wednesday as the cold air wedge weakens.

3-5 ft seas early Sunday gradually subside to 2-3 ft through the day until the northeasterly wind surge arrives, which sends seas back into the 3-5 ft range with 6 ft seas possible in outer portions of the NC coastal waters by early Monday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary in the NC waters to account for these seas, which persist through Monday night. Seas gradually subside through Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday as the gradient tightens and leads to increasing wind waves. The wave spectrum will be a combination of 1-2 ft ESErly swells at around 9-10 sec and wind waves of varying height.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures may be challenged at some sites on Sunday, February 9th...

Site
Forecast
Record Wilmington, NC
76F
77F(1994,1921)
Lumberton, NC
75F
79F(1925)
North Myrtle Beach, SC
73F
74F(1999)
Florence, SC
78F
79F(1999)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.