Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 24, 2019 7:47 AM EDT (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:54PM Illumination 36% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 615 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms early this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms late this morning and early afternoon. Showers and tstms likely late.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 615 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will stall near the coast today and then move just offshore Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, some gradual development is possible with an area of low pressure to move ne from the bahamas and florida Sunday and Monday. Mariners should Monitor the forecast closely for potential changes. A weaker pressure pattern is expected to develop over the area by midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241011
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
611 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
Unsettled weather is expected today as a front stalls over the
area. The front will move just off the coast through Sunday and
Monday. Meanwhile, a tropical low will track north up through
the offshore waters of the southeast coast late Sunday and
Monday, lifting off to the northeast through midweek.

Near term through Sunday
Much advertised cold front has begun to move into the ilm cwa. N
winds have spread through entire area (where it hasn't decoupled)
but main temp dewpoint boundary is lagging. Overall ill-defined
boundary will get hung up near the coast today, and as synoptic nly
flow collides with the sea breeze in a still moisture rich
environment (esp closer to coast), expect numerous showers and tstms
to develop. Main threat with the stalling front appears to be
pockets of heavy rainfall that may lead to some nuisance flooding in
prone areas, though widespread issues not anticipated. Various
precip ensemble products showing roughly 20-40% chance of greater
than 1" for much of our coastal area, with some lower end
probabilities for >2" esp. Near the CAPE fear region. Otherwise
expect considerably cooler temps today ranging from upper 70s far
northern areas to mid 80s over southern tier.

Convection should gradually wane and shift offshore through early
Sunday morning as high pressure begins to wedge in from the north.

Rain chances will increase again into the afternoon, but
coverage QPF not as high compared to today, with better established
ne flow between high pres and tropical low pressure beginning to
lift NE from florida. Best chances near the coast in the afternoon.

Will need to monitor placement of tropical system closely on Sun as
inverted troughing north of the feature could enhance rainfall, but
bulk of that is presently expected to be offshore. Temps continue
below normal on Sunday with N NE flow and abundant cloudiness.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
High pressure will run down through the carolinas from the
north as tropical low tracks up through the offshore waters off
of the southeast coast Sun night through Mon night. A lingering
frontal boundary may also aid in convergence along or just off
the coast. Gradient will tighten with stiff northeast winds
developing along the coast and off shore. This will continue to
feed moisture on shore and expect to see some gusty showers
passing across the area, especially along the coast. Looks like
best chance of heavier showers or convection will run up through
the nc coast. The ECMWF continues to be the farthest off shore
and strengthens the system as it reaches just over 300 miles
east of the CAPE fear on Monday. GFS runs up closer to the
coast, about 150 miles off the coast on Monday, but remains
weaker. NHC continues to support gradual development of this low
with a tropical or subtropical depression likely to form as it
tracks up through the offshore waters off of the southeast
coast. The chance of development is up to 90 percent. Overall,
expect plenty of clouds around with best chc of pcp along the
coast, but if storm is farther east and stronger, it could draw
drier air in from the north.

Main effects of this system should be felt across the coast and
over the waters with increasing winds and rough seas and
enhanced rip current activity along area beaches. Depending on
how far off the coast the system moves, will determine how much
rainfall it brings, but can not rule out some areas experiencing
gusty shower with heavier rain. Also will see relatively cooler
northerly flow keeping temps several degrees below normal during
the day.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Tropical or subtropical low will lift off to the northeast
through mid week allowing for some drying, but looks like
another front will make its way into the carolinas wed. This
front may stall out along or near the coast as high pressure
builds in behind it. The high will track across va on fri,
moving off the nc va coast by Fri night. This should keep an
onshore feed of moisture. This may keep unsettled weather,
especially along the coast through mid to late week.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Frontal boundary seems to be draped over the CWA this morning. Winds
will be light and generally out of the northeast. Time height
indicates moisture will increase throughout the day, with clouds
expected to be in the MVFR ifr range. Convection will increase as
the CAPE slowly increases throughout the day. Coverage will be
fairly widespread by mid afternoon. Showers will continue into the
evening with lowering ceilings.

Extended... Front will likely move just off the coast into
Sunday but lingering moisture likely to lead to additional
restrictions. Also watching potential tropical system moving ne
just off the coast into early next week. Confidence low on
related specifics at this time.

Marine
Changes are underway as a cold front gradually moves into the
region. Winds have already gained a northerly component for most of
our waters, with speeds at or below 10kts. Winds will stay fairly
light through the day and trend more onshore in the afternoon with
the sea breeze circulation. Seas will be around 2ft today. Good
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters later today and
tonight associated with cold front. Stronger NE winds and associated
short period seas will develop Sunday as high pressure noses in from
the north and tropical low pressure begins to lift NE from florida.

Some potential for small craft conditions starting late Sunday but
have held off advisory for now as appears to be mainly a Sunday
night 4th period event at this time.

High pressure will run down through the carolinas from the
north as low tracks up through the offshore waters off of the
southeast coast Sun night through early tues. Stiff NE winds
will develop in tightened gradient flow, up to 20 to 25kts sun
night into mon. This will kick seas up to 5 to 6 ft in the outer
waters. Forecast is highly dependent on track and possible
development of tropical or subtropical depression which NHC now
shows as having a 90 percent chc of formation. Seas 4 to 5 ft
sun eve should build to 5 to 6 ft Sun night into mon. Winds and
seas will most likely reach SCA thresholds Sun eve into mon.

This low will lift off to the northeast Mon night into tues with
an off shore flow developing. Seas will diminish heading into
mid week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mcw
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... 43
marine... Rgz mcw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi54 min N 6 G 8 75°F 84°F1016.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi40 min NNE 9.7 G 16 78°F 84°F1016.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi38 min 84°F2 ft
WLON7 12 mi54 min 76°F 85°F1016.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi40 min NNE 9.7 G 16 80°F 84°F1016.7 hPa
41108 42 mi48 min 84°F2 ft
41064 43 mi40 min NNE 7.8 G 12 80°F 84°F1016.5 hPa
41159 43 mi48 min 84°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi55 minNE 410.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4--W10--W9SW9SW4--SW11S13S14--NW13
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CalmS3--------CalmNE3NE3CalmNE4
1 day agoSW9SW13SW12----SW9S9
G18
S12SW14S13S10----SW4--------------Calm--SW4
2 days agoSW5----W10SW5SW8SW11SW13--SW11SW12SW13SW10SW11SW8----W4----------SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.832.72.21.50.90.40.20.30.81.52.43.23.73.83.42.821.30.70.40.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:51 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.52.82.72.421.410.70.60.81.42.12.83.33.43.22.82.31.71.20.80.70.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.