Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:32PMMoonset 6:24AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft. Showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 312 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure remains centered offshore today. A cold front crosses the waters late Thursday, before high pressure returns for Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 080756 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 356 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Temperatures well above normal will continue through Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible late afternoon into early evening. A cold front will arrive late Thursday followed by below normal temperatures for the end of the week. Developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week, along with a return of warm weather.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered offshore with a frontal boundary still stationed well N of the local area. Expect a fairly similar day today as yesterday, with mainly dry wx and above normal temps . highs in the mid/upr 80s inland with 70s right at the coast. Have continued to cap PoPs at 20% due to dry air in mid levels and the lack of appreciable forcing. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny sky with SW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph. After an isolated shra/tstm over NC this evening, dry wx with temps only bottoming out in the mid 60s tonight.

A cold front approaches the area Thu, with gusty SW/W winds continuing ahead of the front. Still think it will be a dry fropa late in the day due to the lack of moisture, but will continue to monitor since some hiRES guidance shows areas of convection with the front. High temps again in the mid/late 80s inland due to the front not making into in the fa until late in the day.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A dry cold front moving across the area Thu evening will push offshore Thu night. Cold advection begins overnight, but temperatures will still end up near climo (though tumbling quickly after midnight). Front ends up stalled well south and east of the area Fri with weak southern stream disturbance crossing northern FL Fri. Unlikely that any rainfall will spread this far north, but cold advection coupled with deep mixing will lead to breezy conditions Fri. Occasional gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible in the afternoon along with humidity under 30%. There is potential for humidity in some areas briefly dipping under 20%. Temperatures end up below climo Fri with highs in most areas failing to reach 70. Lows well below climo Fri night with potential for lows in the upper 30s. Cold spots may reach mid 30s, but freezing temps are not a concern at this point. The center of the high is too far to the northwest Sat morning and winds do not decouple.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Front stalled south of the area Sat will be lifted north as a warm front on Sun. Southern stream system emerging from the Southwest will lift the front toward the area late Sat night, increasing rainfall chances. The front Moves north across the area Sun with rain transitioning to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low pressure passes well inland from the coast Sun night, pushing a cold front and dry slot into the region Mon morning. Despite passage of a cold front, there is no real cold advection Mon. Secondary front brings the colder air Mon night into Tue, although unsure just how cold the air mass for Tue will be.

- Increasing rain chances late Sat night with best chances Sun into Sun night.

- Temps below climo Sat will be near climo Sat night and Sun with above climo temps Mon.

- Secondary cold front late Mon night will likely pass dry but does drop temperatures near climo for Tue.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. VFR through the 06Z TAF period with no fog expected. Expect SW flow, becoming gusty in the aftn today as high pressure remains offshore.

Extended Outlook . VFR conditions continue through the end of the week.

MARINE. SW flow continues today into Thu with sfc high pressure stationed offshore and a cold front approaching from the W. Expect 10-20 kt winds, with occasional gusts up to 25 kt possible. Seas 2-4 ft, which includes a 1 ft 11 second Easterly swell component.

Cold front will push across the waters early Thu night with high pressure building in from the northwest through Sat. Northwest flow immediately following the front will be 15 to 20 kt, but by midday Fri northwest flow will be 10 to 15 kt. Northerly flow continues into Sat before onshore flow starts to develop late in the day as the high moves offshore. Southeast flow Sat night increases on Sun with potential for 20 to 25 kt as gradient tightens. While speeds may end up short of Small Craft Advisory thresholds do think seas will build over 6 ft Sun and a headline seems likely. Through Sat seas 2 to 4 ft will be a mix of northwest wind wave and a southerly swell. However, by Sun a southerly wave will become dominant with some guidance showing 9 ft seas with 9 second wave period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Over the next several high tide cycles, we are likely to breach coastal flood advisory levels at a couple of our forecast points. Over the last couple of days, Downtown Wilmington has eclipsed their minor flood mark with each high tide and this is likely to continue through at least Saturday. Other coastal locations such as Wrightsville Beach and Myrtle Beach will also see minor flooding concerns during the evening high tides. Tonight, Wrightsville beach is forecast to reach minor flooding and may continue to approach the 6 ft. MLLW threshold through Friday with each successive evening high tide. Springmaid Pier at Myrtle Beach is likely to reach Action Stage over the next few evening high tides with a slight chance of reaching minor flooding.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . III LONG TERM . III AVIATION . MAS MARINE . III/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi47 min WSW 14 G 19 70°F 62°F1006.9 hPa (-2.7)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi39 min W 12 G 16 66°F 63°F1007.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi37 min 63°F3 ft
WLON7 12 mi47 min 68°F 66°F1007.7 hPa (-2.5)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi39 min W 16 G 21 65°F1006.8 hPa
41108 42 mi47 min 64°F4 ft
41064 43 mi99 min W 18 G 25 68°F 68°F1008.2 hPa
41159 43 mi17 min 68°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi54 minWSW 1110.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1007.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7W10--W11
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SW10SW8SW12S6CalmCalmSW13SW7W7
2 days agoNE5NE6NE4NE6NE6E34E4CalmE44SE9SE8SE5SE5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:13 AM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:26 PM EDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.7-1.1-0.9-01.32.844.54.33.42.10.7-0.4-1-1-0.21.12.74.155.14.43.2

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:12 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:43 AM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:25 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.5-0.2-0.5-0.30.51.62.73.43.63.32.61.70.7-0-0.4-0.30.31.52.73.643.83.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.