Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Thursday January 23, 2020 12:20 PM EST (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:21AMMoonset 4:27PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1217 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1217 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure across the ne states will continue to extend down into the area waters through Fri. The next storm system will approach from the gulf coast states during Fri and will lift across the area Fri night into Sat. In its wake, modest high pressure will build in from the west with improving marine conditions from Sun thru the mid6week period of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 231434 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 934 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the NE States will extend down into the Carolinas through Friday. The next storm system will approach the area from the Gulf Coast States late Fri and will lift and push across the forecast area Fri night into Sat. In its wake, modest high pressure will build in from the west with drying and seasonable temperatures expected from Sun thru the mid-week period of next week.

UPDATE. Coastal Flood Advisory exp at 9am this morning as tide is coming down and river levels have dropped below flood levels. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the local waters.

Otherwise, quiet weather day across the area with lighter northerly winds and dry weather as high pressure extends down into the area. Expect seasonable temps in the mid 50s most places this aftn.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. For Fri, ridging down the East Coast will get pushed eastward as the closed upper low and it's sfc low across the south- central part of the U.S. gets its act together and lifts to the NE reaching the Ohio River Valley by Fri Evening. The prime sfc low fills in late Fri with the coastal trof/front just off the Carolina Coasts, progged now to hook up with the secondary low forming across Northeast NC/VA Capes. The end result, the FA will see a WFP Fri aftn or early evening. This warm front hooks up with the Secondary low that is forming on the Triple Point.

With all this said, the FA is looking at temperatures rebounding to near normal for today and further improving to nearly a category above normal Fri. High thin clouds will become more opaque as the mid-level ridge axis pushes off the Carolina Coasts today. At the low levels, winds will become ENE-E late today, mainly East tonight, and SE during Fri. The stratocu/altocu cloud decks offshore will get pushed toward the Carolina Coasts and onshore beginning early Fri. The pcpn threat is rather low tonight but increases dramatically by Fri aftn/evening with POPs close to categorical. Have included low chance for tstorms given various models illustrating, an increasing trend with instability. Decent wind shear in the low levels and a good vertical extent of avbl moisture, both point toward a possible SVR threat given the additional progged dynamics. Will highlight "thunder" Fri aftn into the overnight Fri hrs. Not all that convinced for SVR, but just "Thunder" alone this time of the year is somewhat difficult to manifest.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A cold front will be moving across the area at the beginning of the period. Categorical pops along with isolated thunder is being advertised for Friday evening. A dry northwest flow will develop in the front's wake and Saturday should see some clearing. Seasonal temperatures will move back in after some pre frontal warmth for Saturday's lows.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A northwest flow aloft will quickly transition to a more zonal type configuration by early next week. The forecast remains dry with a couple of caveats. First a more southern system for early in the week has trended a bit to the north with recent runs. If this continues pops may be need to be added for this time period. A second system for midweek has trended slower and weaker so any activity with this feature is just beyond the valid time period of this package. Regarding temperatures, expect seasonal values early trending slowly warmer in time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Mid-level ridge axis will push off the Carolina Coasts later this morning. This will allow cirrus to continue to overspread the area from the west, at the same time becoming more opaque. Sfc ridging will persist down the East Coast of the U.S., extending to Fl/Ga. Flow in the lower levels will become more dominant from the E-SE. And could see the stratocu/altocu deck just offshore from the NC-SC Coasts partially move onshore late this evening but likely will occur overnight. For the 1st 12 to 18 hrs expect VFR conditions to dominate. Potentially, dropping to MVFR due to the onshore movement of low ceiling stratocu cloud deck during tonight. Not much vertical extent of the low level clouds and thus will keep pcpn out of the fcst this period, although patchy light rain or drizzle remains possible around Fri daybreak. Limited to NNE winds 5 to 10 kt inland, and 10 to occasionally 15 kt across the coastal terminals . will all veer to the NE-ENE by the end of this period. Extended Outlook . VFR with possible MVFR by early Fri. By late Fri into Sat, periodic IFR/LIFR conditions from cloudiness and liquid pcpn. This a result of the next storm system getting it's act together across the Gulf Coast States Fri and finally lifts NE across the Carolinas thru Sat.

MARINE. SCA extended through Saturday.

Strong high pressure ridging down the East Coast of the U.S. will be the focus for NE-ENE winds at or shy of SCA thresholds today thru Fri. The meandering sfc low affecting the Atlantic offshore and High Seas was located roughly 30 degrees N and 60 degrees W. It remains a swell producer for both the Carolina Coasts for the past couple days and will continue into Fri before the Low finally gets a kick-start and bolts to the NE. The 10 second period swell will combine with local seas being produced by active NE winds . and the end result will be seas at SCA thresholds. Winds will temporarily drop below SCA criteria late tonight thru Fri . however . the SCA will continue thru this time period with seas eclipsing 6 ft. For Fri, ridging down the East Coast will get cutoff from the local waters by being pushed eastward. This the result of a storm system in the south- central part of the U.S. that gets its act together and lifts to the NE reaching the Ohio River Valley during Fri Evening. A coastal front just off the Carolina Coasts that develops late today, gets re-oriented and becomes a warm front, attached not to the main sfc low, but to a secondary low developing on the triple point. Winds late Fri into Fri night should reach SCA levels along with significant seas.

A cold front will quickly move across the waters late Friday turning a southwest flow to basically west. With only modest cold air advection, speeds will be 10-15 knots on the higher end of the range Saturday diminishing in time through early next week. A weak pressure pattern is in place for next week as well so no real change in wind directions. Significant seas will be in or very near small craft criteria for about 12-18 hours of the period trending down in time as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . DCH/RGZ UPDATE . RGZ NEAR TERM . DCH SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . DCH MARINE . DCH/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi51 min NNE 11 G 15 49°F 50°F1024.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi73 min NE 16 G 21 47°F 52°F1025.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi41 min 52°F5 ft
WLON7 12 mi51 min 57°F 50°F1025.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi73 min NE 21 G 27 51°F 60°F1025.5 hPa
41108 42 mi51 min 53°F5 ft
41064 43 mi73 min NE 19 G 27 54°F 64°F1025.1 hPa
41159 43 mi51 min 64°F7 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi28 minN 710.00 miFair54°F39°F59%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16
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N14N13NE12N12N9NE10N9NE11N9N5N8N6N8N7N8N8N7N7N9N10NE7NE7N7
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2 days agoNW10N10N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:45 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:36 PM EST     3.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-00.81.9344.54.43.72.71.50.5-0.1-0.20.20.91.82.73.33.42.9210.2

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:41 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:54 PM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.30.10.81.72.63.13.22.92.31.60.90.2-0.2-0.20.20.91.72.32.52.31.81.20.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.