Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:43 PM EDT (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 6:37AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1156 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Isolated showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1156 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A boundary will slowly approach the waters from the mainland tonight through Friday resulting in an increase in winds and seas respectively. High pressure anchored well offshore and weak troughing across the central carolinas this weekend will result in light S to sw winds and fairly benign seas through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181625
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1225 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A trough approaching from the west through Friday will produce
a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms, however the
hot and humid weather will continue thru the weekend and into
early next week. A cold front could push to and across the
forecast area the middle of next week, and possibly break the
string of hot and humid days.

Near term through Friday
As of 1100 am Thursday... Although today will be similar to the
past couple of days, a few differences stand out. First, our
cloud cover this morning was slightly greater with high debris clouds
spilling down over the area. Secondly, a mid level trough will
shift slowly eastward making its way across the carolinas later
today through Friday.

Any lingering mid to high clouds will dissipate, but cu
development is expected similar to yesterday with main focus
along sea breeze and inland trough. Not expecting the morning
cloud cover to have much effect on overall temp rise and
therefore heat advisory conditions still expected this afternoon
as high heat and humidity combine to produce dangerous heat with
heat indices up around 105. Temps will reach into the mid 90s
once again this aftn and Fri with overnight lows between 75 and
80.

The trough approaching from west will help to enhance convective
development in an already unstable atmosphere. All models point
at a late day spike in convection inland with activity
diminishing as it moves toward the coast closer to midnight.

Therefore best chc of greater storm coverage will be i-95
corridor late aftn and shifting toward the coast in a westerly
steering flow, but diminishing later this evening into early
overnight hour as we lose heating.

The mid level trough will remain aligned from SW to NE over the
carolinas as it eases slightly eastward overnight into fri. This
should help to maintain greater cloud cover and convective
activity with slightly higher SW winds through fri. This trough
is coming up against ridge over the atlantic, though which
should re-exert itself, especially heading into the weekend.

Depending on how quickly, should end up with limited, if any
activity heading into Fri night, but another hot day expected on
fri.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Though greatly diminished in coverage and
intensity, thunderstorms will still be possible Friday night.

Shortwave ripples of energy will be providing mid level ascent atop
piedmont trough induced surface convergence. Mid level trough axis
crosses on Saturday turning flow northerly and then easterly. The
piedmont trough also weakens and should serves as less of a focus
for convection. The sea breeze should be the primary mechanism. With
the weakened surface boundary and a slight rising of heights rain
chances should fall to minimal Saturday night. Temperatures by day
and night will run similarly elevated to previous days.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... What starts Sunday as a weakness in the
height field between two ridges will gradually transition into
bonafide troughiness in the east. This will lead to a gradual
ramp up of rain chances and a gradual abating trend in the heat.

Surface frontal passage is slated for Tuesday or perhaps a tad
slower. Even with some of the quicker solutions rain chances
will linger into Wednesday due to the proximity of the boundary.

Temperatures will finally dip below climatology.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z...VFR. Scattered high clouds across area with cumulus
clouds beginning to develop away from the immediate coast.

Expect low clouds to diminish into overnight hours with few high
clouds remaining. Isolated storms still possible for this
afternoon, with increased chance of rain from approaching trough
around 0z inland and 3z towards to coast. Greater chance of
coverage and thunderstorms inland, and so have included vcts for
flo and lbt, and only vcsh for coastal terminals. No fog
concerns due to elevated winds overnight and marginal low level
moisture. South-southwest winds through tomorrow.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection through Monday, with increased chances
of rain Tuesday.

Marine
As of 1100 am Thursday... Light southerly winds with afternoon
gusts up to 20-25 kts as sea breeze circulation develops for the
next 36 hours. Wave heights between 2 to 4 feet and isolated 5
feet expected out of the southwest around 4 to 6 seconds with
swell from the southeast around 10 seconds.

Southwesterly flow so typical of the time of
year will weaken Friday night as piedmont trough does the same. They
will continue in the 10-15 kt range early in the weekend, which
should allow the 4 ft seas to be dropped out of the forecast. Later
in the weekend both the 20kt winds and 4 ft seas should make their
return as the trough restrengthens.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Mck rgz
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Vao
marine... Mck mbb rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi73 min SW 11 G 15 91°F 78°F1015.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi95 min SW 12 G 16 81°F 80°F1015.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi63 min 80°F3 ft
WLON7 12 mi79 min 93°F 87°F1015.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi95 min W 14 G 19 83°F 83°F1016.7 hPa
41108 42 mi43 min 85°F4 ft
41064 43 mi95 min WSW 16 G 21 84°F 84°F1017.4 hPa
41159 43 mi43 min 84°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi50 minWSW 14 G 1910.00 miFair94°F73°F51%1015.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW6S7S9S9S13S10SW9SW9S9S11
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1 day agoSW10W8S5S8S6S4S6SW5S3S3S4S5SW5SW5S3CalmCalmS4SW6SW8S7SW6SW6W5
2 days agoSE7SE5S9SE7S8SE6S4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW443SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     4.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.4-000.51.42.333.232.51.70.90.2-0.100.61.62.73.5443.5

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:08 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:50 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.60.90.30.10.20.81.62.32.82.92.62.11.50.80.40.20.30.91.82.63.23.33.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.