Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topsail Beach, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Sfc cold front draped WSW to ENE will slowly drop south into the ILM CWA today, reaching a line extending from HAT to CAE this afternoon. The front will stall in a line roughly extending from ILM to ATL this evening and overnight. Moisture is pooled across the area with PWs climbing to between 1.3 inches across the ILM inland CWA to around 1.5 inches at the ILM coastal CWA Embedded weak midlevel S/W trofs or vorts emitted from a slow moving somewhat closed low across the SE States. Days heating today, along and south of the front, should reach the 80s. The instability resulting will be enough fro thunderstorm development given the forcing from the frontal boundary...and forcing from the sea breeze as it develops and pushes inland toward the frontal boundary dropping south.
The end result will be a decent swath of POPs in the high chance to likely arena across the FA. The one positive potential from these likely POPs will be the needed rainfall that will come from this convection. Thru Thu morning, forecast rainfall amounts will range from 0.25 inches along the NW periphery of the FA, to between 0.50 and 1.00 inch as 1 moves closer to the coast. The majority of the strong to possibly isolated severe tstorm action will occur from noon thru 9 pm. A portion of the FA lies within a Marginal Severe Tstorm Risk Area with isolated damaging wind gusts or hail 1 inch or larger the primary severe concerns. Tonights lows will dependent on how far south the stalled front oscillates. May have to deal with areas of fog tonight given the potential wet grounds but with debris cloud cover governing the overnight, will not hit it too hard at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The period starts with a front stalled over the area and high pressure to our NE. As this high moves offshore late in the day, it will drag the front northwards out of our area. At the same time, the front will weaken, with less forcing to create a clear axis of precipitation. PWATs will remain ~1.5" but heavier rainfall will be more isolated due to the decreased forcing.
Shortwave ridging will build in through Friday with some drying in the column, further decreasing rainfall totals and keeping showers light. Moisture will increase again from the west late Friday night as a front approaches the area, supporting some isolated showers possible overnight. Highs near 80 and lows near 60.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another front will increase shower/storm chances Saturday with the frontal passage. Dry, cooler weather will then build in into early next week as high pressure takes over behind the front. Highs will drop into the 70s and lows into the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Sunday night with some spots possibly dipping into the upper 40s. As the high slowly moves offshore through early next week, temperatures will gradually warm back to normal.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The main objective thru 06Z Thu will be the timing of the convection as a frontal boundary snakes southward and is progged to stall across Southeast NC and Northeast SC this afternoon thru tonight. Decent source of forcing which will be compounded by the late morning thru afternoon sea breeze progressing inland. Looking at a decent shot of convection across the coastal terminals, and to a lesser extent across the inland terminals. Confidence remains high for the potential for convection, however it remains low to modest for individual strong to isolated severe tstorms affecting any individual terminal. Periodic MVFR conditions from the shower/thunderstorm activity can be expected today with MVFR/IFR conditions possible from low ceilings and fog after 06z across all terminals.

Extended Outlook... MVFR/IFR conditions early Thu from low ceilings and reduced vsby from fog. Low to modest confidence for convection during Thu, mainly to the timing due to the front lifting back north. A cold front may bring additional convection Saturday into Sunday with low confidence in flight category restrictions at this time.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Rather benign wind and seas forecast outside of the shower and thunderstorm activity. Sfc frontal boundary will snake southward, stalling at or along the Southeast NC and Northeast SC Coasts this afternoon thru tonight. The sfc pg to remain rather relaxed both sides of the stalled boundary, with wind speeds generally 10 kt or less thru the period. Timing of the wind direction change whether 1 is located on either side of the front remains low on the confidence scale. Guidance suggests generally southerly in direction today, becoming SE-E tonight. Seas generally around 2 ft, mainly in the form of a SE swell at 8 second periods dominating with local wind chop on top.

Thursday through Sunday Night...The stalled front will lift to our north through Thursday with S to SW flow building in into the weekend ahead of our next cold front. Wind speeds will increase Saturday ahead of its passage to near 15 kts. The front will pass late into Sunday morning with winds becoming NE at 15-20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft with some 4 footers possible ahead of the frontal passage Saturday. Seas 3-5 ft Sunday as the front pushes through. Primary swell remains SE at 8-9 seconds with a strong NE wind wave on Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.