Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:38PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 6:34 PM EDT (22:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 8:40AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 300 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers early this evening.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..E winds 5 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 300 Pm Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move offshore early this evening. Cool high pressure will build over the waters Thursday night and Friday. Gulf low pressure may approach from the southwest late Saturday and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 161900
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
300 pm edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region this evening, bringing much
drier air to the region overnight. Unseasonably cool weather
will arrive Thursday as high pressure builds in through Friday.

Temperatures will warm through the weekend as the high shifts
offshore. Rainfall chances will increase early next week as gulf
low pressure approaches.

Near term through Thursday night
Deepening low pressure moved across the area earlier today along a
warm front. Rainfall amounts averaged half an inch or better in most
locations, except for parts of bladen and columbus counties where
barely a tenth of an inch fell. Dual-pol radar estimates even in
areas not affected by beam blockage were a little on the low side.

The low is now in far-eastern north carolina and will move out to
sea tonight. A cold front trailing behind the low is just about to
push from the piedmont into the coastal plain and should be off the
coast this evening. West winds will shift northwesterly behind the
front with falling dewpoints heralding the arrival of the new
airmass. High-res models show limited potential for some shallow
forced showers along the front within a moist but only slightly
unstable airmass. I'm capping pops at 20 percent (slight chance)
during the frontal passage, with dry conditions and clearing skies
expected overnight. Crisp and typical fall weather is expected
Thursday into Thursday night.

Enough boundary layer wind should exist near the coast tonight to
keep temperatures relatively warm (lower 50s). Normally cooler
outlying rural areas will probably run a good 5 degrees lower. Highs
should reach the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday, but good
radiational cooling conditions on Thursday night should produce
widespread 40s and potentially a couple upper 30s in the coldest
locations. We're still a few weeks away from the climatological
first fall freeze for this part of the carolinas.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Exiting 5h trough and high pressure building in from the northwest
will keep the region dry Fri into sat. West-northwest flow aloft fri
and mid-level subsidence will minimize cloud cover. Despite lots of
sunshine highs will struggle to break 70 in most areas fri
afternoon. Clear skies for much of Fri night and decoupled winds
will lead to lows dropping into the low to mid 40s with potential
for cold spots dipping into the upper 30s.

Moisture aloft starts spreading over the area Sat as shortwave 5h
ridge axis shifts offshore and southerly flow develops. Gulf coast
system moving onshore along the fl panhandle Sat evening helps
spread deep moisture over the southeast. Still some uncertainty with
respect to how quickly the system will be moving, but there are
signals clouds and showers associated with this feature may reach
the forecast area before the end of the period. Will bump pop up a
bit across sc Sat night to account for potential for quicker
northeastward movement. Temperatures will be near climo Sat with
increasing cloud cover somewhat offsetting air mass modification.

Clouds and increasing boundary layer winds will keep lows above
climo Sat night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Low pressure trough moving into the southeast from the northeast
gulf of mexico Sun morning moves up the coast early next week. Still
a lot of uncertainty with respect to the nature of the low, but it
will bring an abundance of moisture with it. 12z GFS is noticeably
quicker with the low compared to its previous runs, wpc, and the
ecmwf. So timing is somewhat questionable. This feature is then
followed by a cold front ahead of a deep 5h trough late Mon into
tue. These 2 events will be the main chance for rainfall through
midweek with deep west-northwest flow developing Tue and continuing
wed, drying the region out.

-showers developing Sun morning as low trough combo move into
the southeast from the gulf of mexico.

-showers and isolated thunderstorms with a cold front crossing
the area tue.

-above to well above climo temps Sun through Tue drop back to
climo midweek following the Tue cold front.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Conditions will begin to improve quickly over the next few hours,
with the warm front to our north and a cold front approaching from
the west. Currently widespread ifr ceilings across the area.

Expect widespreadVFR by 21z, with any lingering ifr MVFR at that
time, mainly near the coast, lifting quickly. Scattered clouds this
evening before skies clear around 0z with passage of cold front. May
see some scattered showers with cold front. Gusty southwest winds
this afternoon become westerly in the evening, sustained around 10
kts and gusts in the high teens, with higher values near the coast.

Northwest winds tonight through tomorrow between 5 and 10 kts.

Extended outlook... PredominatelyVFR through extended. Sub-vfr
conditions possible Sunday with return of unsettled weather.

Marine
Low pressure has shifted away from southeastern north carolina and
is now crossing far-eastern nc. This has turned wind directions
southwesterly gusts of 25-30 knots are still being reported at some
coastal and offshore sites. A cold front moving quickly eastward
through the piedmont region of the carolinas should reach the coast
early this evening, possibly accompanied by isolated showers. Winds
behind this front should turn northwest with 15-20 kt winds
overnight occasionally gusting to 25 kt. Somewhat lighter northwest
winds are expected to continue through Thursday night as high
pressure over the mississippi valley moves east.

Seas built quickly in the south winds this morning, reaching 7 feet
at the frying pan shoals buoy and 6 feet at the cormp harbor buoy
near southport. As winds turn offshore, sea heights should peak soon
across the coastal waters and then diminish overnight into Thursday.

For this reason i've trimmed back the ending time of the small craft
advisory to 10 pm across the south carolina coastal waters, and 6 am
Thursday for the north carolina waters.

Northerly flow Fri into Sat afternoon will gradually become
southerly Sat night into Sun as surface high slips off the coast.

Speeds will be around 10 kt Fri through Sat but gradient starts to
tighten up Sat night. Low moving from the northeast gulf of mexico
into the southeast helps increase southeast winds to a solid 15 kt
sat night and Sun before low exits northeast and southwest winds
drops closer to 10 kt. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft, mainly as a
northerly wind wave 4 to 5 seconds, through the end of the week. Sat
night into Sun increasing wind speeds build seas near 6 ft on sun
with southerly wind wave around 5 seconds becoming dominant. Seas
diminish a bit Mon with southerly wind wave period running 5 to 6
seconds.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz254-
256.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for amz250-252.

Near term... Tra
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 43
marine... Tra iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi46 min W 9.9 G 20 76°F 75°F1001.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi26 min WNW 18 G 25 76°F 75°F1002.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi24 min 76°F5 ft
WLON7 17 mi46 min 76°F 74°F1002.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi26 min W 21 G 27 75°F 1001 hPa
41064 39 mi26 min W 19 G 29 76°F 77°F1001.4 hPa
41159 39 mi34 min 77°F9 ft
41108 47 mi34 min 75°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi41 minWNW 1510.00 miA Few Clouds77°F64°F66%1002.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmS7S6SE7S6S9S17
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1 day agoS5S5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE5N6E6E7E4E6E4Calm
2 days agoS7S7S6S8SW4CalmNE5N7NW6SW4SW3SW6W5W7W4CalmW5NW8SW7W6S5SW5S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:51 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:09 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.81.10.60.40.61.22.133.63.83.63.12.41.71.10.60.50.81.42.32.93.23.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:36 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.90.2-0.10.10.71.72.83.643.93.42.61.60.70.1-0.10.20.91.92.73.23.22.9

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.