Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topsail Beach, NC

UPDATE
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Key Messages/Highlights: *Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk well inland near/west of I-95 late this aftn, mainly for damaging wind gusts *Above normal temps through Tue

Confidence: *High

Details: Warmer than normal temperatures are expected as southerly flow continues around low-level high pressure centered offshore. Dry weather is anticipated through Tue morning but an approaching cold front and sea breeze could spark a few showers/storms later in the day. Can't rule out a marginally severe storm toward eve, especially near/west of I-95, with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph. Lows tonight generally in the lower to mid 60s with highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s inland w/ cooler temps in the 70s at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
This will be the beginning of an unsettled period as a cold front sags south over the area and stalls. The upper ridge finally shifts far enough to the east to allow trough to push a cold front down over the eastern Carolinas, but not far enough east to allow the front to pass. Instead it will stall and remain the focal point for convection through midweek. Continued southerly flow will help to moisten up the column with pcp water increasing up to 1.5 inches. Initially the best moisture and instability will be over the northern tier portion of the local forecast area from Darlington to Pender counties as front drops down into Tues eve. Storm Prediction Center has marginal risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe weather into early Tues eve as shear increases slightly.

By Wed the moisture increases further and front will remain hung up over the area. The best upper level support rides over the area Wed late morning into mid aftn closer to the coast with soundings showing CAPE 1500 to 2000 j/kg. Expect this to produce shwrs and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. The westerly component of the steering flow should drive the storms toward the coast on Wed. Overall, there will be increased chc of shwrs and thunderstorms in a warm and humid air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and daytime high on Wed around 80 most places.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
By Thurs, the lingering front will weaken. The high to the north, reaching down into the Carolinas behind the front, will shift off of the coast helping to steer the winds back around to the east. This should help push best convergence and shwr activity back inland. Also looks like best upper level shortwave energy will be across central Carolinas just west of local forecast area.

With ridge holding to the east on Fri, deep S-SW flow of moisture will continue but expect convection to be more localized over eastern Carolinas as boundary has dissipated and focus should remain closer to the mountains as next shortwave pushes another cold front toward the Carolinas from the west.
This front will reach the area late Sat into Sat night with another period of enhanced shwr/thunderstorm activity. A deeper mid to upper trough should drive this front far enough south and east to allow for some drier and cooler high pressure to build down into North Carolina on Sunday.

Although plenty of clouds will be around through mid to late week, a warmer more humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the 60s and daytime highs near 80 or so until frontal passage on Sun. Temps should return to near or slightly below normal by Sun and Mon.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High confidence in VFR through the 00Z Wed then some chances for MVFR conditions with any -SHRA during the 00-06Z Wed timeframe. Best chances (albeit on the lower side) will be at KFLO and KLBT. Otherwise, SW-Sly winds will prevail with a some gusts to around 20 kt generally after 14-15Z through the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Low to moderate confidence for low vsbys/cigs Wednesday morning as a front approaches the area, and again with SHRA/TSRA during the day. Chance for rain will linger through the end of the week until a front crosses over the weekend.

MARINE
Through Tuesday...High confidence this period with no significant marine concerns as high pressure remains centered to the east. This pattern will translate to southerly winds, enhanced a bit at times up to 15-20 kt near the coast due to the aftn/eve sea breezes. Significant wave heights of 3 ft or less are expected, a combination of a southerly wind wave and east/southeast swell.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure to the east and cold front dropping south and east toward the area waters will maintain a SW flow in the 10 to 15 kt range into Tues night. As the front drops into the waters into Wed, winds will become lighter and more variable, with potential for higher gusts in any shwrs/tstms. The front will linger and weaken Thurs. By late Thurs into Fri the high to the north will shift off the coast and winds will come around to the E to SE remaining around 10 kts or less before turning to S to SW as next front approaches over the weekend. Seas will remain 3 ft or less. A longer period southeasterly swell will continue to mix in.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.