Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:21PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:12 AM EDT (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:22PMMoonset 11:12AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 909 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms late this morning and early afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 909 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front approaching the coast will bring a line of showers and Thunderstorms to the waters tonight, some may be severe, with gusty winds, cloud to sea lightning, and dangerous seas, advisory flags are in place. Tropical depression 3 currently off the coast of florida, is expected to move north, and get absorbed by the front on Wednesday. High pressure will rebuild from the north through the end of the week, bringing N to ne winds, generally below 20 kt mid week through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231126
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
726 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and
evening bringing showers and thunderstorms some of which may be
strong to severe. The front will also bring much cooler
temperatures which will develop Wednesday and persist through
much of the week.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 400 am Tuesday... A strong cold front will approach the area
today and move across the area this evening. Much of the area will
likely be dry through midday with the best chance in the very near
term to see activity along the immediate coast and just offshore as
prefrontal convergence sets up. Still on track for a fairly linear
area of moderate to heavy showers and tstms to move SE across the
area along and behind main frontal boundary from roughly 20z tue-03z
wed. SPC has the area in a slight risk of severe given sufficient
instability, shear and forcing... With main threat being damaging
wind gusts. Given progressive nature of system do not anticipate
widespread flooding although some nuisance flooding not out of
question.

Main change for tonight and tomorrow was to trim back pops a bit
especially inland areas with bulk of the guidance fairly dry after
6z this evening outside of maybe some lingering activity near the
coast. Still expecting considerably cooler weather tomorrow (low to
mid 80s) too with anomalous N NE winds around building high
pressure, along with lower heights aloft.

Regarding TD 3... Significant impacts still not expected as the
system is expected to get absorbed into the aforementioned front.

Entrained moisture may enhance precip totals a bit next 24hrs and
the system will likely enhance sly winds aimed at the area to our
south... Which will keep rip current risk elevated into wed.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 400 am Tuesday... Kinda of an uncertain forecast for the short term
period mainly via pops as guidance continues to waiver if and where
any post frontal activity may be. The latest cycle shows more of a
dry scenario and have adjusted pops in this (downward) direction.

The bigger and more certain story will be the cooler temperatures
with daytime highs in the middle 80s or so Thursday and overnight
lows mainly in the 60s sans extreme coastal areas. The moisture in
the form or clouds and or showers will certainly have something to
say about this as well.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 400 am Tuesday... The mid level trough that will have been
responsible for the cool temperatures will be on the way out
leaving a weak mid level and surface pattern for that matter. We
are maintaining slight chance pops along mostly coastal and
southern areas where the best moisture will reside. Some
guidance has a glancing wave moving off the coast as well so
that may complicate things. Temperatures and dewpoints will be
on a somewhat deliberate increase.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 12z... A few areas of showers are possible this morning along
the coast as an area of pre-frontal convergence interacts with the
sea breeze. This could be the focus for isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the early afternoon. This evening, expect a
cold front to approach from the west bringing with it widespread
thunderstorms with the possibility of damaging winds. Convection
should maintain a linear structure increasing our confidence in
timing a bit. Knowing the exact impacts will be difficult until the
line develops, but it is safe to say that every terminal will likely
see a temporary category or two reduction due to heavy rainfall
during the frontal passage. As the front moves east, it will stall
along the coast. Along the stalled front, expect showers to interact
with the marine bl and maintain their presence overnight. Moderate
confidence in stratus on Wednesday morning in the wake of the cold
front. The weather pattern then becomes more unsettled as td3 begins
to interact with the stalled boundary leading to an enhanced chance
of rainfall and MVFR ifr as a result. Limited effects from td3
expected (mainly rain and gusty winds).

Extended outlook... Lingering MVFR to ifr Wed as td3 interacts with a
stalled frontal boundary. BecomingVFR Wed eve into Thu as high
pressure rebuilds from north.

Marine
As of 400 am Tuesday...

have issued small craft advisory late this
afternoon and this evening for a period of gusty SW winds and seas
right around 6ft in places. Short period nature of the seas will
also enhance the risk a bit so leaned towards side of caution in
issuing headline even though by definition winds seas will be
marginal advisory level. A few showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact the waters this morning with prefrontal convergence, but
still expecting a more defined line to move offshore from 01-06z
wed. Some question on how it will hold together this timeframe, but
still some potential for gusty winds and frequent lightning along
and just behind main front. Significant marine impacts from TD 3 are
not expected although sly swell may linger a bit into Wed as the
depression enhances fetch to our south.

Northeast winds will be in place most of the period as
surface high pressure resides in the appalachians. Wind speeds are
stable in a 10-15 knot range. The flow becomes onshore late in the
period probably in the latter part of the weekend. As usual there
could be an embedded surge or two that may briefly increase wind
speeds. Significant seas are stable as well with a range of
generally 2-3 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz106-108.

High rip current risk through this evening for ncz110.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Mcw
short term... Shk
long term... Shk
aviation... 21
marine... Ilm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi61 min SW 9.9 G 13 82°F 79°F1013.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi65 min W 9.7 G 12 80°F 80°F1013.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi33 min 80°F3 ft
WLON7 17 mi61 min 81°F 87°F1013.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi65 min W 12 G 16 78°F 83°F1014.3 hPa
41064 39 mi65 min WSW 14 G 19 84°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
41159 39 mi43 min 83°F5 ft
41108 47 mi43 min 82°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi20 minSW 1010.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 12:20 AM EDT     2.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:53 PM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.82.52.11.510.60.40.511.72.32.832.82.41.91.410.70.60.91.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:38 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.32.821.20.60.30.40.81.42.12.73.23.332.31.60.90.50.50.71.21.92.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.