Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:56 AM   Moonset 1:12 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 614 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am edt this morning - .
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Fri - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 614 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles -
a complex storm system will affect the coastal waters through tonight with more tranquil conditions Thu into Fri as weak high pressure prevails. The next frontal system will affect the area Fri night into the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 151038 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into this evening ahead of a cold front that will drop in from the north. High pressure should bring dry weather Thursday with pleasant temperatures. Rain chances will increase again this weekend as a new storm system advances eastward. Drier and warmer weather should develop next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The mid level trough and associated pressure systems will open up today and push eastward quickly. Expect good coverage of showers and thunderstorms again today in what appears to be three stages. All of the rounds or stages are capable of producing severe weather and SPC has elevated the risk to slight. However the second and third stages later this afternoon and again this evening seem more supportive for deeper convection and severe reports.

Initial convection should readily develop later this morning in and around Cape Fear but may be limited by instability and minimal shear. The big boys develop later this afternoon a bit more to the west via good surface heating and the arrival of higher shear values and high resolution guidance is showing several updraft helicity swaths. Finally the third area should occur in the far northwest areas with similar favorable conditions in the very late afternoon and early evening hours. Overall active day expected with the primary threats of strong wind gusts and hail.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Vertically aligned low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday morning should very slowly drift eastward and out to sea late this week. Northerly winds on the west side of this low should push a wall of low clouds southward across the eastern Carolinas Thursday morning which might take several hours to burn off after sunrise. Mostly sunny skies should eventually develop with daytime cumulus held shallow by a subsidence inversion developing between 6k-10kft. Forecast highs are generally in the lower 80s

Weak surface high pressure will settle across the area Thursday night. Mainly clear skies should allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s for most areas away from the beaches. The high should push offshore Friday morning with southerly winds establishing a connection to the Gulf during the afternoon and evening hours. The subsidence inversion should erode as the upper ridge pushes off to the east, and scattered showers will become possible inland during the afternoon. Activity may spread down to the coast Friday night but should remain scattered, awaiting the arrival of better shortwave energy Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Models still display surprising diversity in timing with this weekend's storm system. The upper trough axis for example is shown at 12z Saturday over Missouri and Arkansas in the GFS. The 00z ECMWF run valid at the same time shows this feature hundreds of miles farther east across eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. The Canadian is in between these extremes. Both the GFS and Canadian operational runs are consistent with their own ensemble means which makes it difficult to profess either are really outliers. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean is not yet available as I'm writing -- but the 00z ECMWF operational run is significantly faster/farther east than its 18z ensemble mean. This doesn't inspire confidence in the ECMWF this run.

While all models suggest Saturday should see the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms, the large model spread leads to increased uncertainty concerning rain chances lingering into Sunday. Forecast PoPs increasing to 60-80 percent Saturday afternoon ramp down to around 30 percent Sunday, then down to only 20 percent Monday as there's higher likelihood that a cold front will have swept through by then bringing drier air in from the north. Mainly dry weather is expected by Tuesday with warming temperatures as upper ridging should build across the eastern U.S.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Some lingering IFR around for an hour or two this morning will quickly give way to VFR. Expect some convection again later this morning and afternoon but inconsistent guidance only warrants vcts at this point.

Extended Outlook...Periodic flight restrictions are possible early Wed evening from thunderstorm activity. VFR conditions to dominate Thu through Fri. The next system with potential flight restrictions will affect the area this weekend.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Wind speeds on the way down this morning and overall should settle into a southwest flow of 10-15 knots with a brief uptick perhaps this evening. A weak offshore develops early Thursday. Higher residual seas warrant continuation of the small craft advisory through the morning hours with lower seas this afternoon and overnight.

Thursday through Sunday...Light offshore winds are expected Thursday in the wake of low pressure moving farther off the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak ridge of high pressure will spread across the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday morning with light and variable winds expected. Winds should become southerly during the day Friday as the high moves offshore.

Attention will then shift to low pressure across Arkansas that will move into southern Missouri by Saturday. Gulf moisture lifted northward ahead of this system should lead to showers and thunderstorms becoming quite widespread in coverage Saturday.
The storm system will develop a new low pressure center over Virginia on Sunday. This should help push a cold front across our area Sunday night with the chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Other - Rip Currents: Yesterday's strong onshore winds have abated, however a 4 foot southerly swell every 8 seconds continues to crash onshore. South-facing beaches on Brunswick County and extreme northeasterly Horry County run orthogonal to this swell and will have the largest potential of rip current activity today.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Wed -- 02:05 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:38 PM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wrightsville Beach
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Wed -- 01:56 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:35 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:24 PM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:45 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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