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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 954 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Isolated tstms. Showers.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 954 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will prevail tonight and Saturday. Hazardous conditions will develop Sunday into Monday as a strong storm system affects the area. Conditions will then improve as high pressure builds back into the area for next week.

FXUS62 KILM 090239 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 939 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Warming will continue into this weekend as high pressure shifts farther offshore. A strong storm system will bring rain and strong winds Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure then builds in behind the cold front for most of next week bringing cool and dry weather once again.

UPDATE
Forecast as expected and no changes needed ash varying amounts of mid/high level cloud continue to spread north. Weak warm advection within the boundary layer will keep lows above climo.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Clouds will continue to thicken through the mid to high levels into tonight with model soundings showing a decent layer of moisture mainly above 15k ft. This will maintain mainly cloudy skies overnight. Overall, warm and moist advection will continue overnight with increasing low level winds above the sfc. Dewpoint temps will increase about 30 degrees between late this afternoon and late Sat aftn. The increased cloud cover and moisture will keep temps above climo overnight with lows dropping into the mid 40s to around 50. As moisture increases overnight, some shwrs will run up through the coastal waters and may brush the coast into Sat morning.

Some of the mid to upper level cloudiness may thin out a bit through Saturday, but there will be a mix of strato cu and cirrus around to produce partly to mostly cloudy skies. Kept low chc pops right along the coast, but overall expect a dry day.
WAA will continue to strengthen with temps reaching into the 70s in persistent southerly flow between high pressure to the east and approaching storm system.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
All eyes on the potent storm system to move across the area Sunday. Overall things haven't changed much as expected as guidance along with our experience leads to a forecast of increasing confidence.

A deepening mid level trough will move across the Tennessee Valley Sunday and even attempt to go negative tilt for a time. This allows the system to slow a bit thus expect three rounds/areas of rainfall.
The first occurs with the warm air advection/coastal trough enhancement late Saturday night. This area is quite transitory and rainfall amounts should be low with the feature. The second and perhaps the most consequential area develops midday Sunday just inland and primarily forced by low level speed convergence. This could be the best time for severe wind gusts but more on that later.
The last round of rainfall occurs with the actual front itself later Sunday night. It should be noted these last two areas could blend together as seen with recent events. The high resolution now capturing at least Sunday and global guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. Hopefully and it certainly seems reasonable to expect 1.5-2 inches of total rainfall in the more favored areas.

Taking a look at the winds and severe threat with the system, it appears the synoptic winds will present more of a concern. There are certainly prolific winds in the lower levels for an extended period (Sunday morning through late Sunday night/early Monday morning) it just doesn't appear they will be realized fully at the surface as surface based cape is meager and fleeting. The numerical guidance and Bufkit momentum transfer graphs show sustained winds of 30-35 MPH with the higher values early Sunday afternoon and again with the actual front late evening into the early morning hours Monday.
Finally its worth noting the MAV numbers regarding sustained winds are in the middle to upper teens. Although these aren't necessarily the actual values to expect, I have found these to be a good indicator of the strength of the system with stronger systems having these numbers in the lower 20s. Long story short I'm expecting a prolonged period of stronger winds but probably not severe and good rainfall in a couple of rounds. Temperatures, almost an afterthought will be in the middle 70s Sunday but return reality in the wake of the front Monday with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Quiet dry and cool to cold summarizes the extended period next week. In the wake of the dynamic system Sunday mid level troughing will be in place along with a reinforcing shortwave mid week. Highs will be in the lower to middle 50s and lows basically from 30-35 outside of the colder spots.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Generally VFR through 00Z Sunday. Low potential for SCT/BKN ceilings around 3k ft near the coast 08Z-14Z. Increase in boundary layer moisture overnight may lead to some transient 5SM fog, especially along the SC coast, although confidence is rather low. An isolated shower is possible along the coast from around daybreak through mid-morning before any activity shifts north. Weak sea breeze develops Sat with onshore flow at coastal sites while inland areas maintain light southwest winds.

Extended Outlook...MVFR to IFR likely will develop late Saturday night through Sunday night as a strong cold front moves through with some heavy showers and possible storms. LIFR conditions are possible as well. Winds will also be strong/gusty Sunday into Monday.

MARINE
Through Saturday...
Southerly return flow will continue between high pressure to the east and slowly approaching storm system to the west. Marine conditions will remain quiet through Saturday with mainly clouds and increasing moisture with a few passing shwrs present. Winds and seas will increase considerably just after this period, into Sat evening. Overall, winds will shift around to the S less than 15 kts with a steep increase late day Saturday. Seas will remain less than 3 ft with a longer period easterly swell mixing in.

Saturday night through Wednesday...
Modest south to southeast flow will be in place early Saturday evening ahead of a potent storm system approaching the area. As this system/front moves across Sunday winds increase to sustained values of 25-30 knots with higher gusts. It's a situation we have seen many times, certainly a small craft advisory will be needed but probably a gale warning based on gusts. The offshore flow early Monday will warrant a continuation of the particular headline but higher seas will shift more offshore. For the remainder of next week, mainly a north to northeast flow of 10-15 knots occasionally higher. Significant seas should be 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Castle Hayne
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Fri -- 02:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:44 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:25 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:53 PM EST     1.59 feet High Tide
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Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wilmington
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Fri -- 02:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:31 PM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:09 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
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Wilmington, North Carolina, Tide feet

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