Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castle Hayne, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Yet another day of quiet weather to start the weekend.
Mid-level ridge shifts further offshore, yielding temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area, almost 10 degrees above normal, with plenty of sunshine (upper 70s/low 80s across coastal counties due to healthy sea breeze). Low temps tonight will be around 60F as high clouds move in from the west.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Cutoff upper low north of the Leeward islands will help keep the mid-level ridge in place centered just off the SE States Coast during this period. This means dry conditions with sfc ridging from offshore to dominate the area with a daily sea breeze developing and pushing inland each day. Subsidence aloft will continue capping across the area. The sea breeze possibly on Tue may see a stray shower/tshower along it if enough forcing is achieved to break thru. Another issue is come Sun night into early Mon, a backdoor dry cold front makes it into Northeast NC (possibly to Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout) but lacks the push to make it to the ILM CWA at this time given the position of the upper ridge axis.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Models in unison but at different speeds do lift the cutoff low, N of the Leeward Islands, off to the northeast. This allows the upper ridge axis to slide or shunted off to the SE Tue and Wed and the FA comes under WSW to ENE flow aloft. This allows a sfc frontal boundary to drop to the central Carolinas by Wed and meandering to the FA at times as it becomes oriented parallel with the flow aloft. Look for increasing chances of rain late Tue thru the rest of the extended period. At this point, the hiest chances will be Wed aftn and night due to the combination of the meandering sfc front and a weak impulse embedded in the WSW flow aloft. Guidance continues with above normal temps this period, 1 to possibly 2 categories above normal.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High confidence in VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Few diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon around 5kft, with increasing high clouds from the west tonight. Current southerly winds 5-10 kts will increase a bit during the day with gusts of 15-18 kts.
Gusts may be a few knots stronger this morning before winds aloft weaken slightly.

Extended Outlook... High confidence in VFR through the weekend.
Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions beginning Tuesday.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions continue through tonight with high pressure persisting offshore. 10-15 kt southerly winds with seas 2-3 ft from S wind wave.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Sfc ridge axis from offshore will extend back to the U.S. mainland, south of the waters, thru Wed. This means an extended play of SSW-SW winds across the waters this period. Speeds generally around 10-15 kt, possibly but only temporarily 15+ kt within 5 nm of the coast during the active time of the sea breeze especially Sun thru Tue. Winds may go E-SE Sun night into early Mon for the waters from Surf City to Cape Fear, at the closest approach of the backdoor cold front. Seas generally 1 to 3 ft, choppy nearshore during the time of the daily sea breeze. Other then locally produced wind waves, an underlying SE 1 to possibly 2 foot 7+ second period wave will co-exist.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.