Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hampstead, NC

UPDATE
Only minimal changes to the forecast with the late evening update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A backdoor cold front will drop southward from the Mid Atlantic overnight. This front should progress as far south as Cape Hatteras before lifting northward on Monday afternoon. Locally, the presence of the cold front will interrupt the surface gradient, allowing winds to become calm overnight. After several days of southerly moisture advection and shallow ground fog, we are expecting patchy fog to develop across the region.
Confidence is increasing that fog could pose a threat tonight, but there is still some uncertainty.

If skies remain clear, fog should develop near coastal areas where boundary layer winds fall to below 10 mph. The best chance would be east of US-701. Upper level clouds will pose a challenge to the forecast, though. After an investigation of model soundings from across the area, many show a thick layer of saturation in the upper levels. However, satellite imagery does not show nearly the coverage that soundings would suggest. Due to this discrepancy, the forecast assumes that cirrus will remain scattered tonight and pockets of clearing will allow for patchy fog to develop near the coast. This could result in more localized pockets of fog.

Low temperature forecasts will deal with a similar challenge. Clouds across area will lead to some inconsistency, but the general model consensus is that it will be slightly cooler inland where BL winds should limit fog coverage and radiational cooling will bring temperatures into the upper 50s (lower 60s at the coast).

Mid Atlantic high pressure skirts offshore during the day on Monday.
Our local gradient and S-SW winds become reestablished. A sea breeze could produce gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon under a mix of clouds and sun. Highs in the mid to upper 80s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The low-pressure system over the plains will shift eastward and on Monday night the low will have occluded over Lake Superior with a trailing cold front across the Ohio River Valley into the Ark-La-Miss region. On Tuesday evening the frontal boundary will have stalled over the eastern half of the Carolinas. In the upper levels, the highly amplified pattern will have developed into a broad southwest flow over the Southeast United States.
The deep moisture (precipitable water) is still 1" or less until late Tuesday night. The weak lift will be ahead of the slow- moving front and only a 20% chance of showers is possible mainly northwest of a line from Burgaw to Kingstree.

Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 60s Monday night and Tuesday night and Tuesday highs will range from 85 to 88F inland and around 80F at the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The forecast period begins across the coastal Carolinas with a stationary front. This front will dissipate late Thursday as high pressure off the New England coast ridges to the southwest over the Southeast United States. In the upper levels, southwest flow will continue through Friday evening. A trough of low pressure will cross the region on Saturday and high pressure over the Gulf will build back over the area on Sunday.

The ribbon of 1.25" to 1.5: precipitable water will remain over the forecast area Wednesday afternoon through late Saturday.
Impulses in the mid-level flow will produce weak lift, especially on Wednesday afternoon when moderate instabilities are expected across the area. The ensembles show a disparity in QPF over the Pee Dee region with each ensemble group ranging between 0.2" to .30" on Wednesday afternoon. With the ongoing drought any rain that falls will be welcomed, but a drought buster this is not. There is a chance of additional showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and again on Sunday as a front stalls over the Carolinas.

High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will bounce around in the lower to middle 80s. With the 2nd front Highs on Sunday will be around 80F. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s through the period.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overall basically maintained the strategy of the previous forecast which shows some IFR BR briefly mainly coastal sites for the early morning hours
Light winds
somewhat muted cloud cover and very slow moisture return should lead to these conditions. Outside of this high confidence of VFR continuing.

Extended Outlook...Moderate confidence in VFR through early Wednesday, with a possibility of fog/stratus each morning.
Increasing rain chances could bring restrictions beginning Wednesday.

MARINE
Through Monday... Once the sea breeze circulation collapses this evening, winds will become light. A backdoor cold front will stall near Cape Hatteras overnight, briefly joining two high pressure centers to our southeast and our northeast. A relaxed gradient will result in winds around 5-10 knots through midday Monday. As the cold front begins to lift northward and high pressure to our northeast pushes farther offshore, S-SW winds increase during the afternoon to around 10-15 knots. Another sea breeze should push gusts up to 20 knots near the immediate coastline.

Monday Night through Friday...
Winds are expected to be around 10 knots or so through the period as a front stalls along in the eastern Carolinas. Winds will back and veer between the southwest to southeast through the period and seas are expected only to run between 2 and 3 feet mainly from a southeast swell of 8 to 9 seconds is expected.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.