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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1001 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon, then showers likely late. Vsby 1 nm or less this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

AMZ200 1001 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Scattered showers over the coastal waters continue through the weekend. Conditions improve into early next week behind a fast moving cold front moving through the area on Sunday.

FXUS62 KILM 021733 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1233 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Periods of showers are possible today through Sunday in a warm and humid airmass. A cold front should sweep this moisture offshore Sunday night. Cooler and drier weather is expected Monday into Tuesday, then turning colder Wednesday and Thursday behind a second cold front. High pressure should reach the Carolinas by Friday.

UPDATE
Overall. little change to forecast was required this morning.
Still expecting showers over the area with greater chances southern areas today. The one item of note was the SCA up for the waters which we extended to 11 AM and subsequently canceled at 10 AM as seas fell below 6 FT.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Messy pattern continues with at times deep moisture streaming up from the southwest. What appears to be a potent shortwave in this flow kicked up nice convection over the waters and more importantly distorted winds across the inland areas at least temporarily halting significant fog formation. Regarding pops and forcing the global and high resolution guidance is in good agreement keeping conditions mostly dry through the early afternoon hours outside of a few sprinkles and drizzle. Another wave moves across late today and this evening and guidance once again in good agreement depicts the better forcing residing to the southern zones.
Overall pops have been lowered this morning and shifted southward later today and tonight. Temperatures off to a warm start will reach the middle 70s possibly higher if any sustained sunshine breaks out.
Tonights lows moderated by the moisture will only drop into the middle 60s or so.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An unseasonably warm and humid airmass will remain across the area Sunday. Shower chances have not improved any since the last major forecast update yesterday afternoon as both the GFS and ECMWF show a significant layer of dry mid level air moving across the area during the day. There are also hints of a convective cap between 850-800 mb which may reduce the number of showers able to develop due to surface heating. Having said this, lapse rates above this cap are rather steep and I'll need to keep PoPs near 40 percent for Sunday, higher than the GFS but significantly lower than the NAM or NBM blend. Forecast highs Sunday are in the mid 70s away from the beaches.

Low pressure over the Ohio Valley Sunday will move northeastward toward New England while dragging a cold front eastward and across the coastal Carolinas Sunday night. Veering winds behind this feature will remove lingering low level moisture and end shower chances from west to east. Considerable cirrus clouds will likely continue through the night and into Monday, awaiting the passage of a shortwave trough Monday night that should nudge the subtropical jet southward for late Monday night into Tuesday. Cooler air behind the front should limit Monday's highs to the upper 60s, while Tuesday's highs may only reach 60 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A strong shortwave diving southeastward out of Canada is shown by virtually all models to carve out a trough across the eastern United States Wednesday. As this feature crosses our longitude Tuesday night, an accompanying cold front will move offshore and should be followed by several days of below normal temperatures in a dry Canadian airmass. 850 mb temps are progged to fall into the -2C to -4C range Wednesday into Thursday, likely yielding highs in the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies. Low temps near or below freezing are possible Wednesday and Thursday nights, but these will not be accompanied by freeze warnings since the growing season ended earlier this week across our section of the Carolinas.

The airmass should begin to modify by Friday as high pressure reaches the East Coast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
All sites now have VFR cigs though CRE has MVFR vsby. Generally expect VFR to continue outside any showers into evening but do expect cigs to lower again to IFR overnight. CIGS should be slow to lift again aft 12Z Sun. Winds will begin to pick up toward the end of the valid taf period as the area begins to feel the approaching front more directly.

Extended Outlook...Periods of low clouds and showers may bring additional restrictions at times through the remainder of the weekend. VFR should return Monday and persist through at least mid-week.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Small craft advisory will continue through 8 AM via seas as guidance appears to have caught up with reality.
A potent shortwave embedded in the broad west to southwest flow may have been the culprit seeing the robust convection that developed earlier over the waters
Looking forward
the southerly flow should settle back into a range of around ten knots becoming a bit more southeast tonight. Significant seas should settle back to a range of 2-4 feet later after the higher values this morning.

Sunday through Wednesday...Low pressure across the Ohio Valley Sunday morning will weaken across New England Monday while a new low forms off the New England coast. Moderate southwesterly winds here across the Carolinas will shift westerly Sunday night as a cold front moves across the area. Offshore winds should initially be light Monday, but will gain strength during the afternoon and could approach 20 knots Monday evening as the aforementioned low develops off the Northeast coast.

The next weather feature of note to affect the area should be a dry cold front arriving Tuesday night. Cold northwest winds behind this front could reach 20 knots which should last through Wednesday. No Small Craft Advisory conditions are currently in the forecast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Sat -- 05:08 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:33 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:07 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:25 PM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
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Sat -- 03:30 AM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:59 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:44 PM EST     1.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:55 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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