Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:24AM||Sunset 7:38PM||Friday August 23, 2019 1:07 PM PDT (20:07 UTC)||Moonrise 12:00AM||Moonset 1:48PM||Illumination 42%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus66 klox 231724|
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1024 am pdt Fri aug 23 2019
Synopsis 23 747 am.
A strong eddy circulation will cause slow clearing of low clouds
across the coast today and temperatures will be cooler than
yesterday. High pressure will build in this weekend allowing for
a warming trend through at least early next week, mainly away from
the coast. Night through morning low clouds and fog are expected
to stay confined to coastal areas.
Short term (tdy-sun) 23 947 am.
Right on schedule the marine layer deepened up to 2500' across la
county and down to 2000' across the central coast. That combined
with a relatively strong southeast flow up to 3000' generated
widespread drizzle across southern sb county that measured
generally .01-.03" but as much as .05" near gaviota. The southeast
flow is clearing out the marine layer across la ventura counties
this morning but it's likely going to a much slower burn off
across sb slo counties. Naturally temps will be down several
degrees from yesterday, especially inland. The simi valley and sb
profiler both show 8-12 degrees of cooling below 3000' and the
daytime warmup is already off to a much slower start than usual.
***from previous discussion***
by Saturday, high pressure aloft will build in and become
elongated NW to SE across the eastern pac and much of california
and into arizona. This will cause the upper trough to redirect
farther north across the pac nw. At the surface, onshore gradients
will trend weaker each day from Saturday to Sunday allowing for
temps to climb 3-6 degrees Saturday with further warming 2-4
degrees. The one exception will be across the salinas river valley
including paso robles where high temps will rebound quite nicely
from the 84 forecast for today, to the lower 90s on Saturday then
close to 100 on Sunday. The marine layer will become more shallow
due to the stronger subsidence from the 594 dm high over the
region. Expect low clouds to affect coastal areas as well as the
santa ynez valley. Some low clouds could creep into a few coastal
valleys across l.A. And ventura counties through the weekend.
As far as tropical storm ivo (pronounced "eye-vo") the location as
of 2 am pdt was around 455 miles SW of the southern tip of baja
california. Ivo will turn to the nnw following a path parallel
to baja through early Sunday morning. As ivo reaches the cooler
waters off the mid baja peninsula, it is expected to weaken
rapidly to a depression. High pressure situated over much of
california will push the remnants of ivo to the wsw of southern
california Sunday night into Monday. There will be a few mid to
high level clouds moving across the forecast area Sunday evening
into Monday but not expecting any weather related issues, except
increasing surf across south facing beaches. See the "beaches
discussion" below for more details.
Long term (mon-thu) 23 318 am.
Both the GFS and ec are in decent agreement with large scale
features through the extended period (mon-thu). With high pressure
aloft dominating the pattern through much of next week with
moderately strong onshore flow at the lower levels, high temps
should remain a few degrees above normal with only subtle day to
day fluctuations. Night through morning low clouds and fog will
continue to affect most coastal areas and the santa ynez valley. A
few coastal valleys could see some patchy low clouds as well
depending if the marine layer could deepen at times.
The GFS and ECMWF continue to show the remnants of ivo staying to
the SW to W of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday due to
the strong high pressure over socal. However persistent SE mid level
flow will remain over the area mon-wed before turning SW on Thursday.
Although nothing is showing up as far as disturbances moving north
in the southerly flow this far out, will have to continue to monitor
in case storms fire up across mexico and southern az and outflow
from these storms move into the deserts and mountains. For now it
looks dry through the extended period with variable high clouds
moving through the area.
Aviation 23 1724z.
At 1715z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 2800 feet.
The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of
22 degrees celsius.|
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18z coastal and valley tafs
and high confidence in desert tafs. Current MVFR ifr are expected
to dissipate this afternoon although there is a 40% chance of MVFR
cigs remaining at ksba. For tonight, high confidence in return of
stratus to coastal valley sites, but low confidence in timing or
Klax... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance that MVFR will not dissipate until 21z. For tonight, high
confidence in return of MVFR cigs, but low confidence in timing
(could be + - 3 hours of current 05z forecast).
Kbur... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. High confidence in
vfr conditions through this evening. For tonight, high confidence
in return of stratus, but low confidence in timing (could be + -
3 hours of current 08z forecast) and flight category (50% chance
that CIGS will return at MVFR levels).
Marine 23 735 am.
For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory (sca) levels.
For the inner waters north of point sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca
levels through Tuesday.
For the inner waters south of point conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca levels today through Tuesday.
An abnormally large south to southeast swell from tropical storm
ivo will impact the waters Sunday through Tuesday. There is a
potential for the swell to peak between 5 and 7 feet. A swell
from this direction would cause strong surges around and inside
the vulnerable harbors, especially avalon and san pedro long
beach. Large breaking waves near the coast are also likely, which
has a history of capsizing small drifting boats.
Beaches 23 737 am.
Moderate south swell with a fairly long period will bring some
elevate surf of 3 to 5 feet with local sets to 6 feet to south
facing beaches of los angeles and ventura counties today. There
will also be a high risk of rip currents.
Tropical storm ivo, currently about 500 miles southwest of cabo
san lucas, will generate a southeasterly swell reaching california
Sunday and persisting through Tuesday. The peak of the swell
should occur Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a period
around 14 seconds. While the peak swell heights will most likely
fall between 4 and 6 feet, there is a chance for a range of 5 and
Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach at least 4 to 6 feet over
south facing beaches, with a chance of peak surf reaching 6 to 8
feet especially for los angeles county, which would require a high
There is a risk for impactful coastal flooding as well. The
highest tides will be late in the afternoon, and should reach
5.7 to 6.7 feet. If the peak swell ends up 3 to 5 feet, flooding
impacts would be minor and mainly in the form of beach erosion. If
the swell height ends up closer to 8 feet, more impactful
flooding would be expected for the vulnerable areas like pebbly
beach in avalon and the long beach peninsula if unprotected.
Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from late Saturday night
through Tuesday morning for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).
Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.
Public... Mw kaplan
beaches... Db kittell
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340||9 mi||91 min||E 1.9 G 2.9||68°F||1012.6 hPa|
|46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA||20 mi||37 min||NW 3.9 G 5.8||66°F||65°F||1012.5 hPa|
|46251||44 mi||37 min||67°F||4 ft|
Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA||16 mi||14 min||Var 6||10.00 mi||Overcast||73°F||62°F||69%||1012 hPa|
|Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA||22 mi||16 min||SSW 9 G 16||10.00 mi||Fair||76°F||60°F||58%||1011.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSBA
Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||N||N||NE||NE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE|
|2 days ago||S||SE||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||Calm||SE||NW||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||SE||S||S |
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off)  Help One Week of Data
EDIT (on/off)  Help One Week of Data
Weather Map and Satellite Images(on/off)  HelpWeather Map
GOES Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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