Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 7:38PM Friday August 23, 2019 1:07 PM PDT (20:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 734 Am Pdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less early, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 734 Am Pdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1020 mb surface high was centered 1100 nm W of point conception. A 1001 mb low was near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 231724
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1024 am pdt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis 23 747 am.

A strong eddy circulation will cause slow clearing of low clouds
across the coast today and temperatures will be cooler than
yesterday. High pressure will build in this weekend allowing for
a warming trend through at least early next week, mainly away from
the coast. Night through morning low clouds and fog are expected
to stay confined to coastal areas.

Short term (tdy-sun) 23 947 am.

Right on schedule the marine layer deepened up to 2500' across la
county and down to 2000' across the central coast. That combined
with a relatively strong southeast flow up to 3000' generated
widespread drizzle across southern sb county that measured
generally .01-.03" but as much as .05" near gaviota. The southeast
flow is clearing out the marine layer across la ventura counties
this morning but it's likely going to a much slower burn off
across sb slo counties. Naturally temps will be down several
degrees from yesterday, especially inland. The simi valley and sb
profiler both show 8-12 degrees of cooling below 3000' and the
daytime warmup is already off to a much slower start than usual.

***from previous discussion***
by Saturday, high pressure aloft will build in and become
elongated NW to SE across the eastern pac and much of california
and into arizona. This will cause the upper trough to redirect
farther north across the pac nw. At the surface, onshore gradients
will trend weaker each day from Saturday to Sunday allowing for
temps to climb 3-6 degrees Saturday with further warming 2-4
degrees. The one exception will be across the salinas river valley
including paso robles where high temps will rebound quite nicely
from the 84 forecast for today, to the lower 90s on Saturday then
close to 100 on Sunday. The marine layer will become more shallow
due to the stronger subsidence from the 594 dm high over the
region. Expect low clouds to affect coastal areas as well as the
santa ynez valley. Some low clouds could creep into a few coastal
valleys across l.A. And ventura counties through the weekend.

As far as tropical storm ivo (pronounced "eye-vo") the location as
of 2 am pdt was around 455 miles SW of the southern tip of baja
california. Ivo will turn to the nnw following a path parallel
to baja through early Sunday morning. As ivo reaches the cooler
waters off the mid baja peninsula, it is expected to weaken
rapidly to a depression. High pressure situated over much of
california will push the remnants of ivo to the wsw of southern
california Sunday night into Monday. There will be a few mid to
high level clouds moving across the forecast area Sunday evening
into Monday but not expecting any weather related issues, except
increasing surf across south facing beaches. See the "beaches
discussion" below for more details.

Long term (mon-thu) 23 318 am.

Both the GFS and ec are in decent agreement with large scale
features through the extended period (mon-thu). With high pressure
aloft dominating the pattern through much of next week with
moderately strong onshore flow at the lower levels, high temps
should remain a few degrees above normal with only subtle day to
day fluctuations. Night through morning low clouds and fog will
continue to affect most coastal areas and the santa ynez valley. A
few coastal valleys could see some patchy low clouds as well
depending if the marine layer could deepen at times.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to show the remnants of ivo staying to
the SW to W of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday due to
the strong high pressure over socal. However persistent SE mid level
flow will remain over the area mon-wed before turning SW on Thursday.

Although nothing is showing up as far as disturbances moving north
in the southerly flow this far out, will have to continue to monitor
in case storms fire up across mexico and southern az and outflow
from these storms move into the deserts and mountains. For now it
looks dry through the extended period with variable high clouds
moving through the area.

Aviation 23 1724z.

At 1715z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 2800 feet.

The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of
22 degrees celsius.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18z coastal and valley tafs
and high confidence in desert tafs. Current MVFR ifr are expected
to dissipate this afternoon although there is a 40% chance of MVFR
cigs remaining at ksba. For tonight, high confidence in return of
stratus to coastal valley sites, but low confidence in timing or
flight category.

Klax... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. There is a 30%
chance that MVFR will not dissipate until 21z. For tonight, high
confidence in return of MVFR cigs, but low confidence in timing
(could be + - 3 hours of current 05z forecast).

Kbur... Overall, moderate confidence in 18z taf. High confidence in
vfr conditions through this evening. For tonight, high confidence
in return of stratus, but low confidence in timing (could be + -
3 hours of current 08z forecast) and flight category (50% chance
that CIGS will return at MVFR levels).

Marine 23 735 am.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Tuesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory (sca) levels.

For the inner waters north of point sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below sca
levels through Tuesday.

For the inner waters south of point conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below
sca levels today through Tuesday.

An abnormally large south to southeast swell from tropical storm
ivo will impact the waters Sunday through Tuesday. There is a
potential for the swell to peak between 5 and 7 feet. A swell
from this direction would cause strong surges around and inside
the vulnerable harbors, especially avalon and san pedro long
beach. Large breaking waves near the coast are also likely, which
has a history of capsizing small drifting boats.

Beaches 23 737 am.

Moderate south swell with a fairly long period will bring some
elevate surf of 3 to 5 feet with local sets to 6 feet to south
facing beaches of los angeles and ventura counties today. There
will also be a high risk of rip currents.

Tropical storm ivo, currently about 500 miles southwest of cabo
san lucas, will generate a southeasterly swell reaching california
Sunday and persisting through Tuesday. The peak of the swell
should occur Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a period
around 14 seconds. While the peak swell heights will most likely
fall between 4 and 6 feet, there is a chance for a range of 5 and
7 feet.

Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach at least 4 to 6 feet over
south facing beaches, with a chance of peak surf reaching 6 to 8
feet especially for los angeles county, which would require a high
surf advisory.

There is a risk for impactful coastal flooding as well. The
highest tides will be late in the afternoon, and should reach
5.7 to 6.7 feet. If the peak swell ends up 3 to 5 feet, flooding
impacts would be minor and mainly in the form of beach erosion. If
the swell height ends up closer to 8 feet, more impactful
flooding would be expected for the vulnerable areas like pebbly
beach in avalon and the long beach peninsula if unprotected.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from late Saturday night
through Tuesday morning for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.

Public... Mw kaplan
aviation... Rat
marine... Rat
beaches... Db kittell
synopsis... Stewart
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi91 min E 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1012.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi37 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 66°F 65°F1012.5 hPa
46251 44 mi37 min 67°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi14 minVar 610.00 miOvercast73°F62°F69%1012 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi16 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miFair76°F60°F58%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS75S6S4SE5SE4SE3SE4SE5--SE6SE5E4E5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmE3SE43Calm6
1 day ago6S5SE8SE6SE7SE8SE9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN6N3NE5NE5SE3SE4SE6SE12SE7SE7
2 days agoS6SE7S5SE4SE6SE8SE4CalmSE3NW3CalmNE4CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE5S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.