Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 4:26 AM PDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 250 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 6 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Thu..Western portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon.
Thu night..Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 11 seconds, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 11 seconds after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
PZZ600 250 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1018 mb surface high was centered 550 nm west of point conception and a 1011 mb thermal low was located over southwest arizona. NW winds are expected to strengthen Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the eastern pacific high strengthens.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 151025
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
325 am pdt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis 14 804 pm.

An upper level high pressure system over the area will allow for
temperatures to warm across the region through Wednesday. Night
through morning low clouds will return to most coastal areas
through most of the week. Later this week, a low pressure trough
will bring temperatures down again and gusty northerly could
develop going into the weekend.

Short term (tdy-thu) 15 309 am.

The marine layer is about 1000 feet deep. There is only weak
onshore flow to the east and there is weak offshore flow from the
north. There are 2 to 3 mb offshore trends both to the south and
west. The offshore trends are keeping the skies clear south of pt
conception. Low clouds brought about by the NW flow across the
waters, cover most of the central coast and portions of the santa
ynez vly. Some low clouds will also work their way into the paso
robles area from the north. A ridge will move into the state on
the heels of ydy's trof. Hgts will rise to 582 dm and this
increase along with the weak offshore flow will allow most
locations to jump 6 to 12 degrees up from ydy's MAX temps.

Not too much marine layer stratus tonight. The NW flow near the
central coast will produce some stratus there and a weak eddy may
bring some low clouds up into the southern portion of the la
county coast.

Not much change for Wednesday. Hgts and pressure grads are
similar. Except for the central coast where there will be onshore
trends and a few degrees of cooling
a large broad trof will sweep across the west coast Wednesday
night and Thursday. It is not moist enough for rain but it will
bring enough mid and high level clouds to make for partly cloudy
skies. Onshore flow will increase to the east but there will be
pretty good offshore flow to the south. The central coast should
see some low clouds develop as the lift from the trof approaches
but the northerly offshore flow will keep the low clouds away from
most areas south of pt conception save for the la south coast. The
north push will also create a sundowner for southern sba county
and the i-5 corridor. Wind gusts speeds will be near advisory
levels.

The lower hgts and increasing onshore flow to the east will bring
about a cool down to the entire area. The areas where there was
offshore flow Wednesday will see double digit cooling as will the
interior sections as hgts fall to 573 dm. Most areas will be 3 to
6 degrees blo normal.

Long term (fri-mon) 15 324 am.

Fast moving dry NW flow will be over the state through Sunday and
both the ec and GFS agree that an east pac high will push in from
the west on Monday.

There will be northerly offshore flow through the period. It will
increase each day. The lax-bfl grad will peak Sunday near 7 mb and
the sba-bfl grad will peak near 6 mb also on Sunday. These
gradients will likely produce advisory level winds across the sba
south coast and the i-5 corridor each night with isolated warning
level gusts on Sunday.

The offshore flow will mostly eliminate the marine layer and
stratus potential but Friday morning there could be some lingering
low clouds across the la south coast.

Max temps will rise all three days. The biggest bump up will occur
on Sunday when MAX temps will rise to 3 to 6 degree above normal.

The sfc flow shifts to a more typical santa ana direction on
Monday as the ridge pushes in. The offshore grads are a little
weaker than previously forecast and there does not look like there
will be much in the way of upper or thermal support so it does not
look like it will turn into a high end event. What it will do is
really warm things up. Almost all MAX temps across the coasts and
vlys will be in the 80s with a smattering of lower 90s in the
vlys. In fact all of next week looks to be on the warm side.

Aviation 15 0831z.

At 0600z at klax, the marine layer was 1000 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3500 ft with a temperature of 16 c.

Good confidence in all tafs except klax and klgb where where there
is a 30 percent chc of bkn008 12z-15z and kprb where there is a 40
percent chc of ovc002 12z-16z.

Klax... Moderate confidence in taf. There is a 30 percent chc of
bkn008 12z-15z. Good confidence that any east wind component
will be under 5 kt.

Kbur... .High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 15 311 am.

High confidence that winds and seas will remain below small craft
advisory (sca) criteria today over all of the coastal waters.

For the outer waters along the central coast and southward toward
san nicolas island, NW winds are expected to increase to sca
levels on Wednesday afternoon and continue through at least
Saturday. For the waters closer to shore, winds will likely reach
sca level on Thursday afternoon. Moderate to high confidence in
winds exceeding gale force starting Thursday night, mainly over
the waters farther from shore.

For the inner waters south of point conception, winds will remain
below SCA levels through early Thursday. Moderate to high
confidence in winds increasing to SCA level Thursday afternoon over
the western half of the santa barbara channel, possibly reaching
gale force on Friday and Saturday.

A long-period, large NW swell is expected to move into the waters
on Thursday and will likely persist through the weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
Gusty sundowner winds are expected for southern santa barbara
county Thursday through Sunday. Gusty northerly winds also
possible for the interstate 5 corridor region Friday through
Sunday.

Public... Rorke
aviation... Rorke
marine... Stewart
synopsis... Delerme
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi50 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 58°F 1015.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi36 min S 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 64°F3 ft1015 hPa
46251 44 mi26 min 65°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi33 minNNE 38.00 miFair53°F50°F89%1014.6 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi35 minN 09.00 miFair55°F50°F83%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3N3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE66SW6SW8SW9W11W10W7W4CalmE3NE4NE5NE5NE6E5NE3NE3
1 day agoCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmS4S6S6S7SE6S5S5SW7W7W3CalmCalmNE4NE4NE6NE8E7NE5NE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW4SW7SW6SW4W9SW7W11--W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.