Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:49PM Sunday December 8, 2019 5:15 AM PST (13:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:50PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 223 Am Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon pst today through late tonight...
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming variable 10 kt or less late. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 223 Am Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z or 2 am pst, a 1006 mb low was near eureka. A cold front extended from northern ca to Monterey bay and 200 nm west of pt. Conception. A 1024 mb high pressure area was over western co. The front will move inland today with w-nw winds developing across the coastal waters in the afternoon. A relatively large wnw swell will continue to affect the coastal waters through tonight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 081227 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 427 AM PST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. 08/248 AM.

An area of low pressure will bring rain early, then turning into showers across much of the forecast area today with some lingering showers into the tonight. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms behind the front. Weak high pressure will build in on Monday as the area dries out. There will be modest warming over the next few days, with more significant warming late this week as high pressure strengthens aloft.

SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE). 08/310 AM.

A weak Atmospheric River (stream?) covers SoCal. PWs were near an inch which is not impressive. Light rain showers continue over the area south of Pt Conception mainly near the foothills where the orographic lift can coax the rain out. A vertically stacked low (upper low directly over the sfc low) is over Srn CA. A weak cold front is over SLO county and is producing two decent bands of showers. All of the cold air aloft is still over nrn CA so there is not enough instability for TSTMs early this morning. There are some decent .30-.40 inch per hour rainfall rate with these showers. Shower activity will increase from NW to SE during the morning as the cold front moves through. Enough cold air and PVA move into southern SLO county and most of SBA county later this morning to justify a slight chc of TSTMs. A couple post frontal trofs (nicely visible on Satellite) move through the area in the afternoon as the upper low moves south and east through the state. These two trofs will keep the shower activity going over the area. As the upper low moves to the south more cold air aloft will allow for a slight chc of TSTMs across the interior of all 4 counties this afternoon.

Rainfall rates ahead of the front are under a tenth of an hour. Rates with front and the two trofs will be between .3 and .4 inches per hour. Any TSTM that forms could produce rates around .5 inches per hour. These sorts of rainfall rates will produce little more than nuisance flooding and there is very little burn area risk. Most areas will recieve an additional quarter to half inch of rain today. Maybe a little more along the coastal slopes. Snow levels are quite high due to the subtropical origin of the moisture and light accumulations 1 to 3 inches are only likely above 7000 feet.

Another cool day with most coastal and vly highs in the lower to mid 60s which is 3 to 6 degrees blo normal.

North flow will move into the area tonight and the showers will stop except on the north slopes where upslope flow will bring showers that will last into the night. It will be breezy across the SBA south coast and the I-5 corridor but likely under advisory criteria.

Ridging will build into the area on Monday and will persist into Tuesday. Skies will be partly cloudy at worst. There may be some patch low clouds and/or for in the mornings if the skies are clear enough to efficiently radiate. There will also be a little sub advisory NE wind event Tuesday morning. Max temps will rise 1 or 2 degrees each day and by Tuesday most max temps will be near normal.

LONG TERM (WED-SAT). 08/320 AM.

The upper level ridge will move E Tue night as an upper level trof pushes into the area. The trof is dry and there is no rain threat. It will usher in a little north wind event Wednesday morning. There will be enough mid clouds to call the day partly cloudy. Max temps will not change much from Tuesday.

On Thursday a weak ridge extends into the area from the SW and hgts rise to about 584 DM. A SFC high will build into the great basin and there will be offshore flow from both the east and north. It will not be that strong and do not expect advisory level winds probably just 15 to 25 mph in the morning. It should be a sunny day and max temps will jump 4 to 8 degrees ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s which is 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

The ridge flattens out a little on Friday but this should not affect the day too much. Expect the day to look much like Thursday perhaps a degree or two warmer.

The ridge begins to break down on Saturday but there will not be much consequences. Skies might be partly cloudy. Max temps will fall 2 to 4 degrees but will still be a degree or two above normal.

Both the EC and GFS hint at a weak system next Sunday but at this point it looks pretty unimpressive.

AVIATION. 08/1226Z.

At 0945Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer with no inversion.

Low confidence in all 12Z TAFs except moderate for desert TAF sites. Conditions early this morning will mostly range between IFR and MVFR with frequent fluctuations likely. There is a 40% chance that conditions will drop into LIFR category through 15Z, especially in periods of heavy rain. Conditions are expected to improve to MVFR later in the morning, and then improve further to VFR in the afternoon or evening, but low confidence on timing.

KLAX . Low confidence in TAF. Conditions will likely be in IFR category through 16Z, but may fluctuate into low-end MVFR. There is a 40% chance that cigs/vis could drop to LIFR, especially during periods of heavy rain. Moderate confidence that conditions will improve to MVFR after 16Z, then VFR in the afternoon. Good confidence in any east wind component remaining below 5 kt.

KBUR . Low confidence in TAF. Conditions will likely be in IFR category through 16Z, but may fluctuate into low-end MVFR. There is a 30% chance that cigs/vis could drop to LIFR, especially during periods of heavy rain. Moderate confidence that conditions will improve to MVFR after 16Z, then VFR in the afternoon.

MARINE. 08/218 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence through this morning then moderate confidence. Winds will turn northwest this morning and are expected to increase through the day. There is a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level gusts developing over the southernmost portion of the outer waters (from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island) tonight through Monday morning. Moderate confidence in SCA level winds over the southern portion of the outer waters on Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Winds will turn northwest this morning and are expected to increase through the day. Good confidence in SCA level winds developing across the Santa Barbara Channel and southeastward towards Catalina Island this afternoon and lasting through late tonight. There is a 30% chance the gusty northwest winds make it to Catalina Island this evening. Winds weaken early Monday, then conditions will likely remain below SCA level through midweek.

BEACHES. 08/1242 AM.

A relatively large, long-period, west to northwest swell will continue to bring high surf conditions to the Central Coast as well as the Ventura and Los Angeles County coast through Sunday afternoon.

For the Central Coast, surf heights will peak between 9 and 12 feet this morning, before lowering to between 7 and 10 feet. For exposed west-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, surf heights will be 4 to 7 feet with sets to 8 feet near the Ventura harbor as well as between Manhattan Beach to the Palos Verdes Peninsula. High surf advisories will continue for these areas through this afternoon. For the west-facing beaches of southern Santa Barbara county, there will be elevated surf conditions across exposed west facing beaches through this afternoon with surf heights of 3-5 feet.

For all coastal areas . there will be an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large breaking waves can cause injury . wash people off beaches and rocks . and capsize small boats near shore.

Late this week there will be the potential for a larger surf episode along our west-facing beaches originating from a northern Pacific storm system. Tides will be building toward 7.0 feet by Friday which would also bring a risk of coastal flooding. Stay informed about this event if you have plans near the ocean next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PST this afternoon for zones 34-35-40-41. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 4 AM PST Monday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart BEACHES . Kaplan/EB SYNOPSIS . Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi39 min W 1 G 1.9 59°F 1017.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi25 min SW 3.9 G 7.8 59°F 60°F7 ft1017.5 hPa
46251 44 mi45 min 61°F7 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi22 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast58°F57°F100%1016.8 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi24 minS 410.00 miOvercast59°F57°F96%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5E4E7E7E9E9E6E7E7E4E4E7NE3E5E3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS6S3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4E6E6E10E7SE8E8SE10SE12SE15SE8E5E6NE4E7E3E10E7E6E3Calm
2 days agoNE4NE6E4E6E8E7E9SE8SE7SE6SE6E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5CalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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