Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:22PM Thursday April 2, 2020 8:51 AM PDT (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:11AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 259 Am Pdt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Western portion, W winds 15 to 25 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming se after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..Western portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft dominant period 6 seconds after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
PZZ600 259 Am Pdt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1027 mb surface high was 650 nm northwest of point conception and a weak thermal trough was over the southern california bight. This high pressure area will persist through most of the week and will keep persistent northwest flow and steep seas through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 021219 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 519 AM PDT Thu Apr 2 2020

. updated aviation discussion .

SYNOPSIS. 01/637 PM.

Temperatures will be near normal and areas of overnight to morning fog are expected for coastal L.A. and Ventura Counties through the rest of the week. By Saturday night, a pacific storm system will bring clouds, rain and cooler temperatures first to northern San Luis Obispo County. Rain will spread through the rest of the region from north to south Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 02/318 AM.

A decent eddy has spun up a 2000 ft marine layer and a resultant stratus deck which will, by dawn, cover most of the coasts and vlys of LA/VTA counties. Moderate onshore flow to the east has pushed enough moisture into the Santa Ynez vly to create a back building stratus deck there. Northerly flow from the San Joaquin Vly has brought some low clouds to the SLO/SBA/VTA/Kern junction. Moderate offshore grads from KSMX to KSBA and KBFL to KSBA has generated areas of gusty advisory level north winds across the SBA south coast. Otherwise the state sits under dry NW flow and except for the morning stratus skies will be sunny. The eddy and marine layer will bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling to csts and vlys of VTA and LA counties. The interior will cool 6 to 12 degrees as cool air pours in from the north. The Central Coast will warm 2 to 4 degrees as yesterdays strong onshore flow relaxes.

There will be less marine layer tonight as offshore flow sets up as sfc high pressure develops over Srn NV. There will be enough of an eddy left over to bring some low clouds to the LA coast and San Gabriel Vly. The northerly offshore flow will be a little stronger and there will likely be low end advisory gusts not only across the SBA south coast but through the i-5 corridor as well.

Friday will be sunny save for the little bit of stratus. The offshore flow will not bring as much warming as it might because hgts will be falling as the southern end of a humongous low centered over Nrn Alberta moves through the state.

Hgts continue to fall and the upper flow turns more to a W to east direction as well as becoming a little more cyclonic Friday night. This along with onshore trends will gin up a good sized marine layer stratus deck which will cover much of the csts/vly of VTA county and perhaps the SBA south coast as well. Weak offshore flow from KBFL to KSMX will likely keep the clouds away from the Central Coast. Clouds will increase through the day as an upper low approaches from the NW. Max temps will cool 2 to 4 degrees and max temps will be 3 to 6 degrees blo normal. There is a slim chc that NW SLO county could see some light rain late in the afternoon.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 02/319 AM.

A cold upper low will bring a late season storm to the area starting on Sunday.

The GFS and the EC are still not in the best agreement but are much closer than they have been. The ensemble spreads have been narrowing as well so there is much better confidence in the forecast through Monday.

The 531 DM upper low will move to a position 80 miles west of the OR/CA state line late Saturday night. Moist westerly flow will move over the Central Coast and there is a chc that light rain will develop over SLO county after midnight.

The low will not move too much on Sunday but the moist cyclonic flow will overspread all of SoCal. Hgts fall to 556 DM. An abundance of mid level cloudy will make it a cloudy day. Max temp will be in the 60s across all non mountain areas. Light rain will likely fall over SLO and SBA counties esp in the afternoon. There is a chc VTA county will see some rain in the afternoon but only a slight chc for LA county.

Things get interesting Sunday night and Monday. The EC and the GFS begin to disagree with the EC moving the upper low slower than the GFS. But both mdls predict that the upper low will move southward down the coast. It will move a good amount of PVA, decent sub tropical jet dynamics over the area in its strengthening SW flow. Most importantly it will entrain a small plume of moisture from the Pacific. Rain will almost certainly spread over the entire area Sunday night. The period of most intense rain will be between Midnight and Noon Monday. During this time there will be good southerly low level flow which will greatly enhance the rainfall rates and totals over the south facing slopes from Santa Ynez range to the San Gabriels. The operational GFS is about 6 hours faster than the EC but the GFS ensemble mean is slower more like the EC so think the slower solution is the one to go with which mean there will be more rainfall. The heavier rain will move out of SLO and Nrn SBA counties early in the afternoon (maybe late morning) and then will end over LA county late in the afternoon. There will be plenty of showers continuing overnight as the upper low will either be over SBA county (GFS) or west of SLO county (EC)

Higher rainfall amounts seem like a good idea now. The flatter areas of the coasts and vlys should get about an inch of rain plus or minus a few tenths. The south facing slopes from SBA to LA county should receive 2 to 3 inches of rain. The interior will likely see a half to three quarters of an inch.

There will be snow with this system and snow levels will be low for April but do not expect snow on the major passes. Snow levels are expected to start out at 6000' and then lower to about 4500 ft by Monday. This storm will likely bring quite a bit of snow to elevations above 6000 feet and a Winter Storm watch will likely be issued in the near future.

Lower confidence in the Tue/Wed forecast as the GFS and EC are at odds with each other (although in better agreement than they were last night) Both forecast that the upper low will hang around SW corner of the country. The EC soln is more over CA and brings more showers to SoCal. If the cold core of the low is more overhead it will generate a risk of TSTMs. For now kept the forecast pretty general with cloudy conditions and a chc of showers.

Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees blo normal through the period.

AVIATION. 02/1218Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 5100 feet with a temperature of 9 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs south of Point Conception and high confidence in TAFs northward/desert sites. For all sites currently with MVFR/VFR cigs, clearing may occur an hour or more later than forecast.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of cigs may occur as late as 19Z. There is a 30 percent chance of an east wind component of 8 kt through 18Z.

KBUR . Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing of cigs may occur as late as 17Z.

MARINE. 02/304 AM.

High confidence in the current forecast. Strong northwest flow will persist through the remainder of the week, keeping at least Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level conditions over the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through Saturday. These winds will generate a short period steep swell over ALL coastal waters through Saturday. Gale force gusts are likely to continue over the southern portion from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island through this morning. There is a 30-40% chance of gale force gusts this afternoon and evening and again on Friday, especially for the southern portion. However, winds have likely already peaked in strength, so any gusts above 35 kt will likely be localized and brief. The gusty northwest flow will also likely bring SCA level conditions to the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel for the afternoon and evening hours today and Friday. After Saturday, conditions will likely remain below SCA level everywhere.

SE winds will also impact the San Pedro Channel each morning through Saturday, and could locally approach 20 kt at times. A storm system is expected early next week bringing a chance of rain over all of the coastal waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT early this morning for zones 39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Rain, possibly heavy at times, and mountain snow are expected Sunday through Monday and possibly through mid week causing road hazards.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Stewart MARINE . Stewart SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi76 min N 4.1 G 4.1 55°F 1013.9 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi42 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 57°F1014.5 hPa55°F
46251 44 mi52 min 58°F5 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1013.9 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi61 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F48°F83%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5SE7SE12SE8SE8SE10SE8SE7SE5S4N14
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E7E4NE11NE9CalmNW3CalmNE3Calm
1 day agoCalmSE5SE4SW8SE7SE8SE6SE6SE8SE7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE4SE6SE10SE7S75W8SW7SE7SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.