Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...23/314 AM.

Currently a weak trough of low pressure continues to digs into the region. Temperatures will cool each day through Saturday, followed by a couple degrees of warming possible on Sunday away from the coast. South of Point Conception, temperatures today are likely to be slightly above normal for most population centers.
North of Point Conception, marine layer stratus and onshore flow will keep most temperatures about 4 to 8 degrees below normal. By Saturday, the entire region will see temperatures around 3 to 8 degrees below normal, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s common.

Overnight to morning low clouds and fog will trend upwards into the weekend. As 500 mb heights decrease inline with the approaching trough, the marine layer will deepen and extend further inland. The latest satellite and sounding data shows a marine layer depth of around 1700 feet, with clouds across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties spreading northward. Some amount of stratus and patchy fog is expected for all coasts and coastal valleys by this morning, except for portion of the Santa Barbara south coast, where winds may drive clouds away.

The northwesterly Sundowner Winds across the southwest portion of Santa Barbara County have now fallen below advisory level, although local gusts to 40 mph will continue around Gaviota. Winds are expected to redevelop this evening into tonight across the same location. A Wind Advisory has been issued, as gust of 30 to 50 mph are likely to be common.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...23/331 AM.

Calm weather is expected in the extended period, as weak trough will knock 500 mb heights down again early next week. Overall temperatures will either change very little each day or increase very slightly. Highs will mostly be within 3 degrees of normal, except for some areas of well below normal for the beaches along the Central Coast. Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep marine layer clouds and fog common during the overnight and morning time periods. Thus, a typical May Gray pattern is likely for the beaches, coastal plains, and some valleys.

There is the potential for a significant warming trend late next week into early June, as some forecast models show a moderately strong high pressure system building over the Arizona-Nevada region.

AVIATION
23/1104Z.

At 0748Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 3600 feet with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 10% chance for VLIFR to LIFR conds developing at KSMX by 14Z this morning. There is a 30% chance KSBA remains VFR through the period. Minimum flight cats may be off by one cat, and clearing times may be off +/- 2 hours. Return of cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours. MVFR with local IFR conds are expected tonight as the Catalina Eddy helps deepen the marine layer.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10% chance for MVFR cigs to prevail through the period. Otherwise, transition to VFR may be off +/- 2 hours. Return of cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours. There is a 10% chance for OVC008-009 upon arrival tonight.
There is a 20% chance for an east wind component of 8 kts between 14Z and 17Z this morning, and a 40% chance late tonight after 10Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Transition to VFR may be off +/- 1 hour. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off +/- 4 hours. There is 40% chance for cigs OVC005-009 when cigs arrive tonight.

MARINE
23/212 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas (at times) through Memorial Day weekend. GALE force wind gusts are expected to persist through the overnight hours. On Friday, GALES are expected to become more localized around Point Conception and the Northern Channel Islands. There is also a 50% chance of GALE force gusts across NE portions of PZZ670 this afternoon through this evening.
Thereafter, minimal chances for GALES, and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds.

For the northern Inner Waters, SCA winds are expected to continue into late tonight, with a 50% chance of GALE force gusts this afternoon and evening. Over Memorial Day weekend, moderate confidence in SCA winds each afternoon through evening.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds winds will be more widespread this afternoon through late tonight, reaching eastern portions of the zone including the Ventura County coastline with a 10-20% chance of GALE force wind gusts in the western portion of the Channel. There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds across the western portion of the Channel each afternoon and evening over the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts, moderate confidence in conditions remaining below advisory levels this weekend. However, there is a 20-40% chance for local gusts up to 25 kt to occur each afternoon through evening today through Monday near Malibu, through the San Pedro Channel, and in the far western portion of the zone, with the highest chances today and Sunday.

BEACHES
23/1206 AM.

A long period south-southwest swell will bring elevated surf conditions up to 6 feet along with a high risk for hazardous rip currents for some south facing beaches over Memorial Day weekend, with Saturday through Monday being the peak. Considering the expected high beach attendance for the holiday, ocean rescues may be numerous. If you plan on swimming in the ocean, be sure to swim near an occupied lifeguard tower.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).