Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 4:44 PM PST (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 11:33AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 238 Pm Pst Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds, building to 7 to 8 ft dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 238 Pm Pst Tue Dec 7 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 22z, or 2 pm pst, a 1028 mb high was 600 nm W of point conception, while a 1012 mb low was over southeast california. A storm system will move through the waters on Thursday and will bring gusty nw winds with a moderate chance of gales over the outer waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 072200 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 200 PM PST Tue Dec 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. 07/904 AM.

Dry and cool conditions expected the rest of today through Wednesday. A better chance of rain and mountain snow will move over the area with a stronger storm system between Wednesday night and Thursday. A cool air mass is expected to linger into the weekend, then a potentially significant storm system could affect the area early next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI). 07/128 PM.

We've entered an active period of weather but there will be at least a day or two of relative quiet between systems. The first of those is now through Wednesday evening. Dry weather but cool with mostly light winds and some clouds at times but also a fair amount of sunshine. The next system on tap for Thursday, though precip will likely begin before sunrise in many areas. Another light event overall but slightly higher rainfall than today's rain. And once again little to no southerly flow ahead of it so really no precip enhancement potential. In these scenarios the transverse ranges often provide a rain shadow to Ventura County so amounts there will likely be a tenth or less. Elsewhere probably in the tenth to quarter territory. Highest likely in northwest SLO County and eastern San Gabriels where up to around a half inch is possible. Minimal to no impacts with this one. Snow levels around 6000' for most of the precip portion of the event, with up to 3 or 4 inches possible at higher elevations. One potential issue to watch for is some post-frontal colder air coming in Thursday evening with northwest flow maybe generating some upslope showers near our border with Kern County. At that time snow levels drop to around 4500' so a dusting or a mix of rain and snow near the Grapevine in the evening can't be ruled out.

The next "break" in the weather will be Thursday night into Friday, though there will be some gusty winds during that time. First from the northwest Thursday night and then shifting to northeast Friday. Either or both of those events could be advisory level, though more likely Thursday night. The northwest winds will be focus in the mountains but could also sneak into southern Santa Barbara County, especially in the Montecito Hills area. The Friday winds will be of the Santa Ana variety and will focus on the usual parts of Ventura and LA Counties. Probably a better chance of advisory winds with the northwest event Thursday evening but there could be some brief advisory level gusts Friday as well. A little warmer on Friday but still mostly just low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE). 07/159 PM.

A little bit of warming over the weekend with lighter winds to continue to the overall quiet period. The next system, the strongest of the bunch by far, will hit the northwest coast of SLO County as early as Monday morning. Ensembles and deterministic solutions in remarkably good agreement on timing and strength, and run to run consistency has been very good as well so confidence is higher than usual this far out. However, having said that, it's not uncommon for storms that have strong southerly flow ahead of it to slow down prior to arrival. In any case, timing uncertainties aside, this has the ingredients for an impactful storm, and one that has the potential to cause some flooding issues beyond just the routine ponding of water. Not seeing a lot of convective potential yet, but strong orthogonal flow hitting the foothills and mountains should be enough to enhance rain rates to levels we haven't seen in quite some time. The most likely time frame for those higher rates appears to be on Tuesday when the cold front comes through. Will have more details later as we get closer but certainly rain totals in the 1-3" range seems like a good early estimate. Quite possibly higher (3-5") in the usual favored upslope areas like Rocky Butte in northwest SLO and in the Santa Ynez Range. Snow levels around 7000', so a good dump for the ski resorts but not much impact elsewhere through Tuesday. Potentially at lower elevations Wednesday depending on how much moisture is left behind the front.

AVIATION. 07/1808Z.

At 1731Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer 3100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 6400 feet at a temperature of 8 Celsius.

Low to moderate confidence in 18z TAFs. Drizzle and/or light rain will be possible for all sites through 20Z. Cig heights will vary frequently, likely fluctuating between 015-035. Low cloud cover will likely be disorganized this afternoon so low confidence in the marine layer stratus pattern tonight.

KLAX . Low to moderate confidence in 18z TAF. Cig heights may fluctuate between 015-035. There is a 30% chance of an east wind component of 10 kt through 18Z.

KBUR . Low to moderate confidence in 18z TAF. Cig heights may fluctuate between 015-035.

MARINE. 07/853 AM.

NW winds have weakened to below SCA level for the outer waters along the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island early this morning. However, steep short-period choppy seas remain. Wave heights are expected to lower through the morning, so feel comfortable letting the current Small Craft Advisories expire. For the rest of the day and through Wednesday afternoon, good confidence that winds and seas will remain mellow and below SCA level. However, a strong eddy circulation may bring SE wind gusts of 10 to 15 kt through the San Pedro and Santa Barbara Channels through the morning and possibly again Wednesday morning. There will be a chance of light rain across the waters through the day.

NW winds will strengthen again Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across all the waters ahead of an approaching storm. High confidence in at least SCA level conditions over all the waters by mid to late Thursday morning lasting through at least Friday morning. There is also moderate confidence (50% chance) of Gales across the outer waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island developing by Thursday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory level winds are likely across the inner waters. These gusty winds will create dangerous short- period seas over all the waters. Seas over 10 feet are likely across the outermost waters, mainly on Thursday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).

Lingering rain and snow showers are possible Thursday evening near the Grapevine. Gusty northwest to northeast winds are expected late Thursday into Friday. Gales are possible across the coastal waters between Thursday and Friday. A potentially significant storm system should move over the region between late Monday into Tuesday.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . Sweet/Stewart MARINE . Sweet/Stewart SYNOPSIS . MW

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi44 min NNW 3.9G3.9 58°F 61°F1014.9 hPa55°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi44 min S 1.9G3.9 59°F1014 hPa
46251 44 mi48 min 61°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi51 minN 07.00 miOvercast61°F52°F72%1014.1 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi69 minSW 65.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze61°F52°F72%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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This dayE5E4E530NE5NE60N4NE500000000SW3SW53SW6W40
1 day ago00000W40NE3W4NE30NE30NE30NE5NE4E5SE5SE6S4W5S40
2 days ago0N40N300NW300N30000000SE3SE5S6SW5SW4SE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California, Tide feet


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California, Tide feet


Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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