Monday, November28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
For Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/2/2022 Still working on decoding the Airport Weather field correctly. I have checked all the airports in the country just now and it is all good. Please report any errors.
8/2/2022 Added link that gives more frequent observations on airport weather. Click on the Temperature field in "Airport Reports" or the link to 5 minute data just below the table.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:50PM Monday November 28, 2022 2:10 PM PST (22:10 UTC) Moonrise 12:41PMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 904 Am Pst Mon Nov 28 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pst this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon in the afternoon. Combined seas 2 to 3 ft dominant period 10 seconds, building to 3 to 5 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon.
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 25 to 30 kt in the evening, becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
PZZ600 904 am pst Mon nov 28 2022 synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 15z, or 7 am pst, a 1032 mb surface high was local about 900 nm W of seattle. A 1009 mb low was centered west of las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 281759 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 959 AM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

SYNOPSIS. 28/940 AM.

Significant cooler week ahead, coldest Wednesday morning with areas of near to sub-freezing temperatures. Localized light rain chances through Wednesday, then moderate widespread rain likely at times Thursday through Saturday. Gusty onshore winds over the mountains deserts today, will turn northerly tonight, with light offshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-WED). 28/958 AM.

***UPDATE***

Skies starting to clear out as the band of overcast high clouds, associated with a weak front, sweeps through southern California. Some low clouds will linger into the afternoon and evening, especially over Los Angeles County. Some drizzle is possible under these clouds as they deepend, along with some light accumulations under 0.10 in the San Gabriel hills. Highs today will be down 10 to 15 degrees from yesterday thanks to the colder air mass behind the weak front, along with a strong trend toward onshore flow. This trend has also generated gusty winds over interior LA and Ventura Counties, which will continue to increase this afternoon. The current low-end Wind Advisories look good. For tonight, the winds will shift to northerly and becoming focused over southern Santa Barbara County and the I-5 Corridor where Wind Advisories are already in place. There will be moisture in that flow as well, which will likely result in scattered rain and snow showers on the northern slopes. Snow levels will drop down to near 4500 feet. With accumulations of one inch at most, mountain roads should see minimal impacts. The San Luis Obispo County Santa Lucia Range will also be windy, but should stay below Wind Advisory criteria.

The focus of the forecast will be on the end of the week storm. There are some significant differences between the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble model systems, but the majority are still advertising widespread moderate rain. The best timing estimates are for Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, then again on Saturday. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches widespread still look good, with 2 to 4 inches in the mountains.

***From Previous Discussion***

With the northeast pressure gradient, an offshore flow pattern will develop for Tuesday and bring some warming across the coastal and valley areas. Wind advisories could linger into Tuesday for the mountains, and maybe a brief Santa Lucia wind event could develop across San Luis Obispo County early Tuesday morning, but any advisory level winds look to remain over the mountains. EPS members favor gusty winds remaining away from K3A6 and KCMA. Thus, only locally gusty northeast winds could develop across favored Los Angeles and Ventura County foothill locations. The next shift will be briefed about possibly adding a wind advisory for early Tuesday morning for the Santa Lucia mountains.

A colder air mass will push into the region behind the weak trough for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A drier air mass with clearer skies will allow for radiative cooling processes to be more efficient in wind-sheltered locations and the interior valleys. While most of the areas have seen two frost/freeze events already, there is concern for a potentially cold event for the Antelope Valley as overnight low temperatures dip into the teens. A freeze watch was added for the Cuyama Valley where two freezes have not been recorded yet.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 28/442 AM.

Medium-range ensembles continue to highlight a decent chance of rainfall across southwest California for the latter half of the week. All members of the EPS, GEFS, and CMC solutions have widespread rainfall developing, but how much rain will fall and the exact timing of the rainfall is the main questions. EPS solutions are starting to focus in on a two-wave storm system to affect the region for the latter half of the week with the first wave moving in between Thursday and Thursday night. Some members of the EPS and deterministic NAM-WRF solutions are starting to pick up on a warm frontal band developing on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning across the region, especially south of Point Conception. PoPs break away from NBM values during this period, and favor toward a multi-model blend. Orographic effect will likely enhance precipitation values. Best guess estimates suggest 1-2 inches of rainfall across the coastal and valleys with up to 4 inches of rainfall possible for the south facing slopes of the mountains. EPS members suggest a greater than 80 percent chance of 1 inch or greater precipitation event across region, and a greater than 80 percent chance of 2 inches along the southern slopes of the San Gabriel Range. When factoring in the orographic effects, 4 inches of rainfall along the south-facing slopes of the mountains is a distinct possibility. EPS perturbations are wetter than GEFS and CMC members, but this does seem to agree with the pattern recognition portion of the deterministic members of the EPS and GEFS.

Gusty winds are a possibility with this system. Deterministic model solutions are waffling a bit on the strength of the winds, but run-to-run consistency and EPS members favor at least advisory level winds developing for areas north of Point Conception and the Transverse Ranges. Stay tuned on this development as higher-resolution model solutions will get involved here as we get closer to the arrival of the system.

Snow levels look to remain high with this storm and continue to advertise snow levels above 6000 feet with this storm. About a third of the EPS members and a sixth of the GEFS members advertise accumulating snow for KSDB, so snowfall for the lower elevation and the mountain passes cannot be ruled out entirely. For now, snow levels stay on the higher side of NBM values as the air mass has a more subtropical fetch.

AVIATION. 28/1254Z.

At 11Z, the marine layer at KLAX was 2600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3500 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees Celsius.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Marine layer has deepened and clouds were widespread in coastal and valley areas south of Pt. Conception. However, thick high clouds were disrupting the status field. For the most part, conditions were MVFR in coastal and valley areas, and IFR to LIFR in the foothills and mountains. Skies should clear in most areas this afternoon, though clouds may linger through the day across L.A. County and eastern Ventura in County. There could be a few showers across L.A. County this afternoon and evening, and on northern slopes tonight into early Tue. Expect MVFR cigs in most coastal and valley areas tonight, but developing northerly flow should cause skies to clear in the valleys late tonight, and on the coastal plain early Tuesday morning. KLAX . Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Expect stratus to move into the airport by 14Z. There is a 30% chance that clouds will scatter out between 19Z and 02Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 30% chance that MVFR cigs will will scatter out between 19Z and 02Z.

MARINE. 28/437 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels winds in the northern zone (PZZ670) will overspread the outer waters this morning. Winds are expected to increase to Gale Force this afternoon and persist through late tonight. SCA winds are then likely Tue morning, but should fall below SCA levels in the afternoon. However, seas may remain above SCA levels through Tue afternoon. Expect conditions to be below SCA level Tue night thru Wed night. SCA level S winds are expected Thu and Thu night. There is a 30% chance that SCA level winds will continue into Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will likely increase to SCA levels this afternoon, then winds will drop below SCA levels by late tonight. There is a 30% chance that seas will remain above SCA levels thru mid morning Tue. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds Tue afternoon/evening. SCA conds are not expected Tue night thru Thu morning, then SCA level S winds are likely Thu afternoon and Thu night, with a 30% chance that SCA level winds will linger into Fri.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. SCA level W to NW winds are likely across western portions of the SBA Channel this afternoon through late tonight, with a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds across northwestern portions of the southern zone (PZZ655). Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Wed night. There is a 40% chance of SCA level SE-S winds Thu into early Fri.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to noon PST Tuesday for zones 53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until midnight PST tonight for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



PUBLIC . Hall/Kittell AVIATION . DB MARINE . DB SYNOPSIS . RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi95 min SW 6G7 59°F 29.93
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi31 min WNW 9.7G12 58°F 61°F29.89
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi41 min NW 21G27 56°F 58°F29.90
46251 44 mi45 min 61°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSBA SANTA BARBARA MUNI,CA 7 sm17 minvar 0510 smPartly Cloudy63°F50°F63%29.89
KIZA SANTA YNEZ,CA 24 sm15 minW 1210 smClear63°F48°F59%29.89

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California, Tide feet


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California, Tide feet


Weather Map
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