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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 835 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 835 Pm Pdt Mon Oct 2 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1029 mb surface high was centered about 650 nm W of eureka, california. A 1006 mb surface low was centered over western new mexico with a trough axis extending west and northwest through california.

FXUS66 KLOX 022355 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 455 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
02/118 AM.

A warming trend will begin today with high temperatures rising to well above normal levels by the middle of the week. A weak to moderate Santa Ana wind event is possible mid to late week.

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...02/201 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short term period. At upper levels, ridge of high pressure will develop over the eastern Pacific tonight/Tuesday then will move eastward over the West Coast Wednesday/Thursday. Near the surface, offshore flow will be on the increase through Thursday.

Forecast-wise, the short term period will be the first Santa Ana pattern of the season for the district, with temperatures and wind becoming the main issues. First with respect to winds, there will be increasing northeasterly (Santa Ana) winds through the period across Ventura/LA counties. Based on high resolution models, the LAX-DAG gradient peaks around -3.5 mb Thursday morning. So, the surface gradients are not overly impressive as well as upper level wind support. So, at this time, will anticipate weak Santa Ana winds (gusts 30-45 MPH) across the usual spots in Ventura/LA counties. So, there is a low chance (20-30%) that Wind Advisories may be needed Wednesday/Thursday. Various model ensembles (which have been very consistent) support this thought of a low chance of advisory-level Santa Ana winds. Along the potential for weak Santa Ana winds, there will likely be some weak (sub-advisory)
Santa Lucia winds across San Luis Obispo county Wednesday/Thursday.

The second issue with this developing offshore flow pattern will be temperatures. As one would expect, the combo of the ridge building aloft and increasing offshore flow will allow for a very noticeable warmup through Thursday, especially across the coasts and coastal valleys. In fact by Thursday, coastal and coastal valley areas will be about 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals.
For interior sections, the warming trend, although still occurring, will be more muted. Based on TEMP STUDY database, the temperature forecasts for Wednesday/Thursday are a few degrees above the NBM numbers for many areas. Given the very dry nature of Santa Ana winds, humidity will be on the low side. So, do not anticipate the need for any sort of non-routine heat products at this time.

Other than winds and temperatures, no issues are anticipated through the period. With the offshore surface flow and building H5 heights, there should be little, if any, marine layer stratus through Thursday. So, will anticipate mostly clear skies for the entire area through Thursday.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/202 PM.

For the extended, models in decent synoptic agreement with the upper level ridge persisting over the West Coast on Friday then will be pushed eastward through the weekend. One area where the models differ is with respect to the surface gradients. The GFS indicates a diurnal gradient trend Friday through the weekend while the ECMWF keeps a weak, but persistent, offshore gradient through Sunday.

Through the extended period, the main challenge will be temperatures. Given the discrepancies in the model surface gradients, confidence is a bit on the low side for the extended.
Based on most model guidance, will go with Friday as the warmest day with a cooling trend Saturday through Monday. However, if the ECMWF is on track, the cooling trend may not be as pronounced as expected. Other than temperatures, there really should not be too many issues through the weekend. There will be some lingering weak offshore winds Friday/Saturday, but nothing approaching advisory levels. Skies should still remain mostly clear although there is a chance of some coastal stratus/fog redeveloping Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION
02/2353Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Good confidence in 00Z TAFs, low confidence for KLAX and KLGB between 08-16Z with a 30-40 percent chance of Low MVFR to IFR cigs/vsby. There is a 10 percent chance of Low MVFR to IFR cigs/vsby during this timeframe for other coastal TAFs.

There is a 10-20 percent change of north winds up to 10 kt for KVNY between 03-09Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in VFR TAF, except low confidence between 8-16Z with a 40 percent chance of Low MVFR to IFR cigs. There is a 50-60

KBUR...Good confidence in VFR TAF.

MARINE
02/150 PM.

No changes to the marine forecast in the afternoon issuance.

Winds and seas are generally expected to be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level for all waters through late week. However, there is a 30% chance of SCA wind gusts across the outer waters this afternoon into late night (Strongest around Point Conception)
and again Tuesday afternoon and evening (20% chance), good enough for mention of local gusts to 25 knots.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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