Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:45PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 6:09 PM PST (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 218 Pm Pst Tue Feb 18 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 218 Pm Pst Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z, or 1 pm pst, a 1028 mb surface high was located near seattle, with a ridge extending to a 1033 mb high in idaho. A weak trough was located across the inner waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 190110 AAA AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 510 PM PST Tue Feb 18 2020

Updated aviation section

SYNOPSIS. 18/301 PM.

Locally breezy tonight with overnight and morning low clouds and patchy fog developing along much of the coast and coastal plain. There is a chance of light showers south of Point Conception late Friday and into Saturday, otherwise conditions will be warm and dry for the week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI). 18/223 PM.

Offshore gradients have been trending weakly onshore this afternoon and a weak sea breeze has developed over coastal areas. Winds over the interior are still weakly offshore. The onshore flow combined with a weak impulse moving through the area tonight will likely lead to widespread night through morning marine layer stratus over the coasts. High resolution models indicate a weak eddy developing overnight which will likely deepen the marine layer and may push clouds into the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys and the Santa Barbara County south coast. By Wednesday afternoon skies will be clear but with continuing onshore flow expected, temperatures will cool a few degrees by the coast and warm slightly over the Antelope Valley.

There is a chance of low clouds again Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but models are indicating that offshore flow may keep it off the coast. The best chance for clouds may be along the southern LA County coast, but will likely be pushed away quickly. Models indicate strengthening offshore gradients, but not as strong as previously thought. The NAM originally had a peak LAX-DAG gradient of -4.7 mb, but now has diminished to -3.6 mb. Breezy northeast winds are likely over the Santa Ana prone areas of LA and Ventura Counties on Thursday but will be below advisory level. With offshore flow, temperatures will warm across coastal areas to the low to mid 70s, and maybe the upper 70s in the coastal valleys.

On Friday, a closed upper-level low over the Pacific Ocean will approach Southern California. Cloud cover will increase and temperatures will cool a few degrees. It will likely remain dry, but the southerly flow ahead of the low may produce some drizzle over the mountains during the afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE). 18/231 PM.

Both the GFS and ECMWF remain in good agreement overall with large scale features through the extended period. Early Saturday morning the models agree that the low will be centered about 100 NM south of Point Conception. Then during the day it will move eastward into southwestern Arizona by late afternoon. There is not much moisture associated with the system, but it will bring in moisture from the ocean. So not expecting any widespread significant precipitation. Have gone with chance PoPs over LA and Ventura Counties and slight chance for eastern Santa Barbara County from Friday night into Saturday morning. Some wraparound moisture is possible Saturday afternoon over eastern LA County. With southerly flow, there could be enhancement of precipitation over south facing slopes of the mountains. Precipitation amounts will be very light, in general expecting less than 0.10 inch with amounts up to 0.25 inches over the LA and Ventura mountains. Snow levels will lower to around 5000 feet with probably just a dusting to an inch at most, so at this time not expecting any snow-related impacts along the Grapevine. With the center of the low overhead and the possibility of instability increasing, there is a possibility of thunderstorms mainly over the coastal waters south of Point Conception. However, it's still too early to mention any thunderstorm threat in the official forecast.

For Sunday broad northwesterly flow will develop over the area. So, will anticipate dry conditions for the area with mostly clear skies. With the clear skies and increasing H5 heights, temperatures will rebound a few degrees to a little above normal. The GFS and EC then diverge on Monday and Tuesday where both indicate an inside slider dropping southward, but the GFS shows it digging into Arizona. If this solution is accurate, then there is a chance of gusty northerly winds for Monday, shifting northeasterly on Tuesday.

AVIATION. 19/0108Z.

At 23Z, the marine layer depth was around 900 ft deep at KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2300 ft with a temperature near 17 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. There is a chance of sub-VFR conditions after 02Z at coastal terminal and after 07Z for valley terminals. There is a chance that flight categories could be one category different than than forecast. Timing could be up to two hours earlier than forecast.

KLAX . IFR to MVFR conditions will likely spread into KLAX as soon as 07Z or as late as 10Z. There is a 30 percent chance of conditions being one category lower than forecast. Any east winds should be less than 7 knots. There is a 40 percent chance that VFR conditions could develop between one and three hours earlier than forecast.

KBUR . IFR to MVFR conditions will likely spread into KBUR between as soon as 10Z or as late as 13Z. There is a 50 percent chance of conditions being one category lower than forecast. There is a 50 percent chance that VFR conditions could develop up to two hours earlier than forecast.

MARINE. 18/145 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds this afternoon/evening. Winds are seas are expected to be below SCA levels late tonight thru Thu night. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds Fri, then SCA level winds are likely Sat.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, there is a 20% chance of SCA level NW winds this afternoon/evening. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels late tonight thru Fri. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NW winds Sat.

For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels thru Sat, except for a 30% chance of SCA level W-NW winds across western portions of the SBA Channel Sat.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE).

A cold storm system could bring rain and mountain snow to the region Friday night and Saturday. There is a chance of gusty north to northeast winds Monday and Tuesday.



PUBLIC . Stewart AVIATION . Hall MARINE . Sweet SYNOPSIS . Kj

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi93 min SW 8 G 13 59°F 1014.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi29 min WSW 9.7 G 12 58°F 1014.8 hPa55°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 42 mi39 min WNW 14 G 18 58°F 58°F1014.5 hPa52°F
46251 45 mi39 min 60°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA7 mi76 minW 86.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze59°F54°F83%1013.8 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi74 minW 710.00 miFair64°F44°F49%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE7N6E6NE6NE4NE4NE5NE4CalmSE5SE8S6S5S6SW7W11W8Calm
1 day agoE4CalmNW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4CalmS6S53S5SW6W6SW3SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmN6N3CalmE3CalmNE3CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4S8SW5SW6SW8W5SE6SE6E8E5

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.