Santa Barbara, CA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Barbara, CA

June 16, 2024 9:26 PM PDT (04:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM
Moonrise 3:22 PM   Moonset 2:05 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 843 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning - .

.gale watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night - .

Tonight - Western portion, W to nw wind 15 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 9 seconds.

Mon - Western portion, nw wind 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with possible gusts to 35 kt. Eastern portion, light wind, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds.

Mon night - Western portion, W to nw wind 20 to 30 kt with possible gusts to 35 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: W 6 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Tue - W to nw wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 9 seconds.

Tue night - Western portion, nw wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Wed - NW wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Wed night - Western portion, nw wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Thu - W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Thu night - Western portion, nw wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Eastern portion, W wind 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

Fri - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.

Fri night - W wind 10 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.

PZZ600 843 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1028 mb high was located 900 nm W of point conception. A 995 mb thermal low was centered near needles, ca. Hazardous marine conditions with strong winds and steep seas will affect much of the waters through early this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara city, CA
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Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 170344 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 844 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/222 PM.

Temperatures will cool off by a few degrees in most areas this upcoming week, following the warm to hot conditions from this weekend. Strong northwest to north winds will impact the Central Coast through interior sections of Santa Barbara County to the Antelope Valley through Monday night. The strongest winds are expected to affect the Interstate-5 corridor of northwest Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountains, where critical fire-weather conditions are also expected. In addition, the winds may shift to a northeasterly direction Monday night into Tuesday, spreading across the Los Angeles County mountains, the Santa Monicas, and adjacent eastern Ventura County.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...16/844 PM.

***UPDATE***

Forecast is tracking well this evening. Already seeing tightening pressure gradient to our north in response to the unseasonably strong descending region of a jet to push into the region over the next several hours. The latest high resolution guidance shows an uptick of 10-20 mph in wind gusts within the Ventura mountains and northwest Los Angeles County mountains (where a High Wind Warning and incidentally the Red Flag Warning remain in effect), continuing strong overnight and gradually weakening early Monday.
That will support the well advertised gusts of 50-70 mph, strongest along the ridgetops. Other Wind Advisories look well placed with the eastern Santa Ynez Ranged added. Some areas near the coast may experience a lull in wind overnight.

A strong eddy is likely tonight (Santa Barbara to San Diego is nearly -3 mb which is very rare) and already seeing signs of that with low clouds already pushing into Long Beach CA from the south, 3-5 hours early then we often see eddy forced low clouds. Low cloud forecast tonight is quite tricky as the surging low clouds with the eddy battles against intensifying northerly flow aloft.
The San Fernando Valley, Inland Oxnard plain, and southeast Santa Barbara coast having a 10-20 percent chance of low clouds or fog by day break.

Heat and smoke from the Post Fire in NW Los Angeles County continued to be noted on satellite, with the smoke now extending well south and east of the fire, encompassing much of Los Angeles County. Haze, smoke, and reduced air quality may become more common across this region in particular overnight. In collaboration with Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, Air Quality Alerts have been issued for areas that may be most impacted.

***From Previous Discussion***

Significant deepening of a Pacific Northwest upper low will sharpen midlevel height gradients and intensify deep-layer wind fields within the base of the amplifying trough extending over southern California. This will send significant upper support southward across the forecast area tonight, causing an unseasonably-anomalous strong low-level mass response over the local area. Corresponding northwest to north winds will increase this evening into tonight over interior sections. Gusts will increase to 60-70 mph in High Wind Warning areas (Ventura County mountains eastward to the western Antelope Valley Foothills including the Interstate-5 corridor of northwest Los Angeles County, as well as the southwest Santa Barbara County mountains and coast). Surrounding Wind Advisories are in effect for many areas from the Antelope Valley westward to the Central Coast, where gusts of 35-55 mph are expected.

Similar wind speeds are expected to occur through at least Monday night, and High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been extended in time through Monday night. In addition, the southward mass flux in the low levels, in response to the strengthening upper support, is expected to form a strong coastal/barrier northerly jet just offshore. The latest data is showing an increasing signal for cross-stream speed shear across the jet to interact with coastline curvature in the Southern California Bight to promote the development of a strong Catalina Eddy from Monday into Tuesday. The circulation around this eddy is expected to drive a Santa Ana wind-type response, causing a wind shift to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. And with with nocturnal drainage flow enhancements, north to northeast winds could remain quite strong Monday night through Tuesday. There is a 60% chance for wind headlines to be extended through Tuesday and/or spread across the Los Angeles County mountains and Santa Monicas including adjacent parts of Ventura County.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for gusty northwest to north winds and low relative humidity for the Interstate-5 corridor in northwest Los Angeles County and the Ventura County mountains in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday, where critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Elsewhere, elevated to briefly critical fire-weather conditions are expected across the interior and southern Santa Barbara County. Additional information is available in the Fire Weather section below, as well as the Fire Weather Planning Forecast. Also, smoke from the Post Fire complex will affect a large portion of LA County and eastern Ventura County and will bring air-quality impacts to many areas. Please reference the Air Quality Alert Message for additional information.

By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the midlevel height gradient is expected to weaken while broad upper troughing persists across the region. Correspondingly, low level winds across the region are forecast to begin a weakening trend, and present indications are that wind headlines will be unlikely after Tuesday.

With the reinforced upper troughing persisting over the region through mid-week, temperatures are not expected to be as warm across the region as they were over this weekend. In addition, surface pressure gradients at the larger scale will be gradually turning increasingly more onshore through early to mid week. This will favor deepening of the marine layer with increasing coverage of marine stratus and fog, and perhaps night/morning drizzle. This will result in additional cooling for the coasts and coastal valleys. Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to have cooled to within a few degrees of normal, generally in the 70s except upper 60s at the beaches and in the 80s and 90s over some of the interior valleys and foothills.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...16/223 PM.

The axis of broad mid and upper troughing will shift slightly offshore for Thursday and Friday, as small-scale impulses pivoting through the surrounding cyclonic flow reposition its primary axis. This will favor continued deepening of the marine layer, with abundant night and morning marine stratus and fog over the coasts and coastal valleys. As a subtropical ridge builds westward from the south-central CONUS for late in the week into next weekend, larger-scale onshore pressure gradients will substantially strengthen. This will reinforce low clouds and fog at the coast while supporting stronger heating over the interior.

With the midlevel ridging, high temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s to around 100 degrees over many interior valleys, and upwards of 105 degrees in the Antelope Valley next weekend. In addition, as midlevel heights rise next weekend, more substantial diurnal clearing may occur over inland areas away from the coast owing to increasingly shallow marine-layer depths. This could expand the areal coverage of very warm to hot temperatures closer toward the coast next weekend.

AVIATION
17/0220Z.

At 01Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 2600 ft with a temperature of 21 deg C.

Moderate confidence in KPMD KWJF and KPRB, due to uncertainty in gusty winds and the potential for FU from distant fires.

Low to moderate confidence in other TAFs, especially KSBA and south including KLAX. A strong eddy will likely 60-80 percent chance bring low MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys between 03-06Z for LA coastal TAFs including KLAX and KOXR and a 30 percent chance for KCMA. There is a 10 percent chance of brief IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys at KBUR/KVNY/KSBA between 10-15Z. Reduced vsbys from FU could impact any TAF site, but is most likely for LA County TAFs, especially valley terminals. Timing of low clouds may be off by 2 hours.

Weak to moderate LLWS is possible through 15Z, focused near KSBA, KBUR, and KVNY.

KLAX...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF, due to uncertainty in timing and height of low cigs and potential reduced vsbys from FU from the distant Post Fire.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF, due to potential reduced vsbys from FU from the distant Post Fire and a 10 percent chance of brief IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys between 10-15Z.

MARINE
16/1256 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds are expected to remain at Gale force levels through Monday. So, GALE WARNINGS will remain in place during this time (with a 20% chance of Storm force winds through tonight). Seas will peak in the 11 to 14 foot range through Monday. For Tuesday through Friday night, winds will subside, but remain at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels while seas drop below 10 feet.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60-80% chance of Gale force winds this afternoon through tonight and a GALE WARNING remains in effect. Seas will peak between 10 to 13 foot through tonight. For Monday through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, mainly afternoons and evenings. For Thursday through Friday night, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For the western Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in Gale Force Winds this afternoon through tonight and a GALE WARNING remains in effect. The winds will be strongest from mid channel and westward. For Monday through Wednesday, there will be a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, mainly afternoons and evenings. Otherwise and elsewhere over the inner waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through Friday night.

Across much of the coastal waters, steep and dangerous seas can be expected into mid week.

BEACHES
16/1258 PM.

Short-period wind waves, due to gale force winds over the nearby coastal waters, will generate significant surf conditions along the local beaches through Monday, mainly on west and northwest facing beaches. High surf of 4 to 7 feet will impact the beaches of Ventura county. For the beaches along the Central Coast as well as Los Angeles county, elevated surf conditions will continue through Monday. Along with the surf conditions, dangerous rip currents can be expected into early this week.

FIRE WEATHER
16/223 PM.

GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates that the ongoing Post Fire complex in the vicinity of the I-5 corridor in northwest LA County and adjacent northern Ventura County continues to grow in size and intensity. Weather conditions will become increasingly conducive for further growth and intensification of this complex, especially tonight, and a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the I-5 corridor in northwest LA County and the Ventura County Mountains. For these areas, the latest data suggest that northwest to north winds will gust to 45 to 55 mph today, increase to 60 to 70 mph range tonight, and then gradually decrease to 30 to 50 mph through the day Monday. Sustained wind speeds will generally be in the 20 to 40 mph range. These strong winds, with the notable uptick tonight, will be caused by increasing upper support overspreading Southern California in the base of a deepening cyclone centered well north of the area. The upper pattern will also bring an influx of abundant dry air into the area, and minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range from 15 to 25 percent, locally as low as 10 percent in downslope- flow favored areas -- with only poor to moderate overnight recovery to around 25 to 40 percent tonight. While live fuel moisture readings are still quite high, ample fuel loading of dead fuels is likely contributing to the extreme fire behavior with the Post Fire complex, and increasingly favorable meteorological conditions are expected to foster further growth and intensification of this fire complex or any other fires developing in the Red Flag Warning area. The Red Flag Warning is currently set to expire at 3PM PDT Monday, however, conditions will be re-evaluated for possible extension of the Warning in subsequent forecasts, given the potential for gusty winds to continue into Monday night and Tuesday. There is a 40 percent chance that the Red Flag Warning is extended into Monday night or Tuesday. There is also the potential for winds to shift to the northeast Monday night and Tuesday.

Elsewhere across the region, gusty northwest to north winds are expected to continue through Monday, peaking in intensity tonight with a secondary peak Sunday night into early Monday. Wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common at times through the period for the Central Coast, mountains of Santa Barbara, Ventura and northwest LA County as well as the Antelope Valley (strongest in the mountains and deserts). Isolated gusts to 65 mph will be likely in the strongest periods of wind across western the Santa Ynez Range and adjacent western Santa Barbara County South Coast, primarily in the evening and overnight hours in conjunction with Sundowner wind enhancements and nocturnal drainage processes. Meanwhile, a warm and dry air mass will remain in place, with widespread 8 to 15 percent humidities across the interior today, and 12 to 20 percent on Monday. Poor overnight recoveries in the foothills are also expected. The warm and dry air will continue to descend into some coastal foothills on Sunday, including portions of southern Santa Barbara County. The combination of gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidities will continue to bring elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions across southern Santa Barbara county through Sunday night, and all interior areas through Monday. There is an increased risk for fast-growing grass fires over much of the area, that could transition into wildfires where the fuel beds are most abundant and dry.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday evening for zones 87-340-346-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 88-340-341-346-347-353-356-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 349-351-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 PM PDT Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT Monday for zones 376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 7 PM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 1 mi50 minENE 5.1G7 62°F 29.71
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi36 minWNW 3.9G7.8 63°F 64°F6 ft29.6758°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi36 minNW 25G31 56°F 55°F9 ft29.7351°F
46251 44 mi60 min 60°F 62°F6 ft


Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSBA SANTA BARBARA MUNI,CA 7 sm33 minSE 067 smClear64°F57°F77%29.69
KIZA SANTA YNEZ,CA 24 sm11 minSW 059 smOvercast54°F46°F77%29.80
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Wind History graph: SBA
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Tide / Current for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
   
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Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California, Tide feet


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest   
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Los Angeles, CA,




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