Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 7:52PM Monday August 10, 2020 5:57 PM PDT (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 12:41PM Illumination 55% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 503 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 10 2020
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 503 Pm Pdt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1032 mb high pressure center was located 900 nm west of eureka and a 1004 mb thermal low was over southern nevada. The pattern will not change much through the week. Patchy dense fog, with visibility under one mile, will continue through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 110024 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 524 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. 10/519 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will affect most coastal areas tonight through Thursday night. A warming trend will bring daytime highs to near normal by Wednesday, then a heatwave will bring widespread temperatures of 100 degrees or more Friday through the weekend, with 80s for coastal areas.

SHORT TERM (TDY-THU). 10/234 PM.

Fairly quiet weather the next few days in advance of widespread hot temperatures later in the week and into the weekend. A 900 to 1000 ft marine layer will keep overnight stratus to immediate coastal areas again tonight. As high pressure begins to build into the desert southwest we can expect a slow moderation of temperatures through the short term and a further shrinking of the marine layer. Moderate onshore pressure gradients, although the peak decreasing each day, will slow some of the warming brought by the increasing heights on Tuesday and Wednesday, while also bringing some gusty winds to the Antelope Valley. Most of the warming on Tuesday will be limited to coastal areas of LA and VTU counties then expect more widespread warming on Wednesday, especially LA and VTU counties. Coasts and nearby valleys will still be a few degrees below normal on Wednesday versus interior areas which will inch above normal. Will have plenty of temps in the mid to upper 90s across the interior valleys by that time. Relative humidities will also be quite low over mountains and the AV, and combined with the gusty onshore winds will produce some elevated fire danger for those areas.

On Thursday models are bringing some mid level moisture from soon to be hurricane Elida, currently about 200 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas, northward and across the area mainly Thursday and Thursday night. Precipitable water amounts increase to around an inch and a quarter at that time. Deterministic GFS and its ensemble (GEFS) produce some measurable precipitation with this moisture, although very light. Meanwhile EC and its ensemble has bounced around a bit from run to run and its previous runs were both showing light amounts over the mountains and somewhat similar but not as widespread as the GFS and GEFS, while the latest run backs off. Hard to come up with much of anything with this moisture other than some mid and high level clouds across most of the area and maybe some virga and sprinkles over the mountains, simply due to the lack of any instability. Will need to keep an eye on it but for now will leave precip out of the forecast. As with any tropical system remnant will need to watch for any areas of lift that sneak out of the system to enhance precipitation chances. Temps do at least bump up a few more degrees coasts and nearby valleys on Thursday. The marine layer stratus forecast for Thu morning is a little tricky with these mid and high clouds. Would expect it to be limited to the central coast and possibly a chunk of the LA county coast.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON). 10/234 PM.

The upper level high will have strengthened in intensity and its impact on southwest California with 590 plus dm heights over the forecast area on Friday and gradually increasing further through the weekend. In conjunction with these increasing heights and thicknesses will be an offshore pressure gradient trend each day through Sunday, the GFS showing a weak offshore LAX to DAG gradient Sunday morning and not much of an onshore gradient Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile the EC has its strongest offshore gradient on Friday, then slightly weaker offshore each day up to Sunday morning. It also keeps the gradient offshore Saturday afternoon. Adding to these weak offshore gradients will be a northerly gradient (LAX to BFL) that will assist in the warming across mainly the LA county valleys and coast. EC is also strongest with this north south pressure gradient, with its strongest on Saturday morning.

Forecast temperatures among both model ensembles and deterministic versions are a bit all over the place, which isn't surprising given the disparity in forecast pressure gradients. Thus outside of the basic timing that the warming is expected to be first most noticeable on Friday and likely going through Sunday or Monday, specific high temps are a little uncertain at this point. For instance, the latest EC ensemble has 102 and 103 for downtown LA Fri and Sat, respectively. The deterministic EC has it in the upper 90s, while the GEFS is much less aggressive and puts low 90s for downtown LA Fri thru Monday, the warmest day being Monday. Finally, the deterministic GFS has 100 and 105 for DT LA on Fri and Sat, then cooling it to 95 on Sunday. The record for CQT is 97 Fri, and 98 both Sat and Sun. Needless to say there's good certainty it will be very warm and including warm overnight lows to bring excessive heat concerns as early as Friday for many interior areas. Highs across the AV should be plenty above 100 and tipping around 105 to possibly 107 on Sunday. However, hard to pin down temperatures for the LA county coast and interior valleys at this point. For now temperatures lean toward the cooler GFS with a slight nudge up to account for the other warmer models and ensembles.

Besides the very hot temperatures, there will be some gusty north winds for mainly the western portion of the SBA Co south coast on Friday night and Saturday night. Gusts of 40 to 45 look likely, especially around areas such as Gaviota. At this time relative humidities look to be above critical levels with these winds, although they may briefly dip low enough to bring elevated fire concerns.

AVIATION. 11/0021Z.

At 2330Z at KLAX . The marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2600 feet with a temperature of 25 deg C.

Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs at 00Z, and high confidence inland. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to return to coastal sections, with VLIFR likely again for the Central Coast. Timing may differ by +/-2 hours from TAF times.

The desert TAFs will see gusty SW winds through this evening.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Onset of marine clouds may differ by +/-2 hours from forecast time of 06Z. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions overnight.

KBUR . High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions through the period.

MARINE. 10/140 PM.

High confidence that winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Tuesday across all waters. There is a 30% chance of SCA level gusts from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island on Wednesday. Winds look a bit stronger over these waters on Thursday and Friday, but still moderate confidence in SCA level winds at best.

Patchy fog, locally dense with visibility under one mile, will likely continue through the week across all the waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

Triple digit high temperatures and very warm nights will bring the potential for excessive heat over many areas Friday through Sunday and possibly Monday. Otherwise, no significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . Jackson AVIATION . Smith MARINE . Sweet SYNOPSIS . Smith

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 2 mi82 min WSW 9.9 G 13 63°F 1013.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 13 mi38 min W 9.7 G 12 60°F 63°F1013.7 hPa58°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi38 min W 7.8 G 9.7 61°F1013.5 hPa
46251 45 mi62 min 69°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA6 mi65 minWSW 910.00 miFair66°F55°F70%1012.9 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi63 minW 910.00 miFair81°F53°F39%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W8W9W7W4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3SE3CalmSE4S4S4SE4S4SW7SW10SW9W10SW9
1 day agoW10W8W8W6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S3S3S4S4SW7SW7S7SW7SW8W10
2 days agoSW7W4W5S3E5SE4E4E4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSE5S6SE7SW66SW9W10W9W10

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.