Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:18PM Monday October 21, 2019 12:29 AM PDT (07:29 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 844 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 844 Pm Pdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z, or 8 pm pdt, a 1029 mb surface high was centered 800 nm west of point conception, extending to a 1021 mb ridge over northeast nevada. A 1011 mb thermal low was centered along the southern california coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 210436 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
936 pm pdt Sun oct 20 2019

Synopsis 20 922 pm.

A weak to locally moderate santa ana wind event will affect
portions of ventura and los angeles counties through at least
Tuesday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the region. After
some relief on Wednesday, a potentially stronger wind event may
develop Thursday and Friday.

Short term (tnt-wed) 20 904 pm.

The latest satellite imagery shows an upper-level ridge of high
pressure near 38n and 136w and building east into the west coast.

Offshore flow is strengthening this evening as ridging aloft
builds in. Gusty winds continue to linger across the mountains
this evening and could push back into the higher portions of the
valleys. Wind advisories are being monitored closely this evening
and could be extended into Monday morning.

A warming and drying trend will continue into Monday as ridging
aloft builds in over the region. Overnight low temperatures have
been warmed in the foothills overnight tonight and again Monday
night, and daytime high temperatures have been warmed for Monday.

***from previous discussion***
the trend in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday is a
continuation of light offshore santa ana winds with warmer
temperatures and drier air settling over southwest california. A
few locations of the eastern ventura and western la county region
could see brief advisory level winds Monday morning and Tuesday
morning in this pattern. High temperatures for valleys and coasts
will push well into the 80s to mid 90s Monday and even warmer from
about 90-100 degrees on Tuesday. These temperatures will be
combined with falling humidities into single digits and poor
overnight recoveries. Virtually no marine layer is anticipated for
the next several days.

By Wednesday there will be a modest amount of cooling with highs
"only" in the 80s to lower 90s. It still looks like weak offshore
flow with dry conditions through mid-week. Then, all eyes turn
toward a more significant santa ana wind event starting early
Thursday. European ensembles have been showing this potential for
a few days and so at this time it looks like at least a moderate
event and possibly stronger. There will be cold advection and wind
alignment on ridges which always helps force momentum downslope
into the lower valleys and coasts. Pressure gradient differences
between GFS and the ecm range from -4mb to -7mb between lax-dag
for Thursday. Temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s with
hottest conditions near the coasts as the mountains and nearby
valleys will experience some cooler air. Dry, warm and windy
conditions will likely continue into Friday.

Long term (thu-sun) 20 140 pm.

European ensembles have been showing the potential for a
significant santa ana for a couple of days and so at this time it
looks like at least a moderate event and possibly stronger for
Thursday. There will be cold advection and wind alignment on
ridges which always helps force momentum downslope into the lower
valleys and coasts. Pressure gradient differences between GFS and
the ecm range from -4mb to -7mb between lax-dag for Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s with hottest
conditions near the coasts as the mountains and nearby valleys
will experience some cool advection to offset warming. Dry, warm
and windy conditions will likely continue into Friday.

Friday will likely be the warmest day of the outlook period as the
santa ana continues to bring hot and dry conditions to the region.

A 590 dm high pressure system moves directly overhead on Friday
with offshore winds weakening by the afternoon hours.

By Saturday, the high flattens and shifts eastward due to a large
upper trough beginning to advance southward into the northern
rockies. Winds are likely to switch back to onshore with height
falls bringing cooler air across southwest ca. There is better
model agreement now that a low pressure system will drop into
northern ca and nv on Sunday. This continues the trend toward
cooler temperatures and higher humidities across the entire
region. If model trends continue we could even see a little rain
in the foothills and south-facing san gabriel mountains late
Sunday night or Monday. A much different weather regime compared
to what we expect to see this week.

Aviation 21 0037z.

At 00z, the marine layer depth was around 300 feet deep at klax.

The top of the inversion was near 1500 feet with a temperature
around 27 degrees celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast. Best confidence in flight
categories, slightly less confidence in wind and wind impacts.VFR
conditions are expected through the period. Periods of moderate
wind shear and turbulence are possible at all terminals through
16z.

Klax... There is a 60 percent chance of northerly cross winds
between 10 and 15 kt between 02z and 06z. There is a 20 percent
chance that cross winds could exceed 20 knots between 03z and 05z.

Any east winds after 07z will likely be less than 7 knots. Otherwise,
vfr conditions are expected through the period.

Kbur... There is a 30 percent chance of moderate wind shear and
turbulence between 02z and 06z. Otherwise,VFR conditions are
expected through the period.

Marine 20 919 pm.

Winds will continue to diminish across the coastal waters tonight
and into Monday morning. A small craft advisory lingers northwest
to southwest of the channel islands. There is a 30 percent chance
that this advisory could extended into Monday evening.

Inside the southern california bight and across the inner waters,
a small craft advisory has been issued for the nearshore portion
of the inner waters from point mugu to santa monica and out into
the santa monica bay.

Gusty northwest winds could redevelop north and west of the
channel islands on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

Gusty northeast winds are possible across the inner waters
between ventura to santa monica and southeast of rancho palos
verdes.

Beaches 20 145 pm.

Large swell and gusty northwest winds will keep high surf on
central coast beaches into this evening, with surf of 7 to 11
feet expected. Surf is expected to subside after sunset.

Fire weather 20 342 pm.

Gusty north to northeast winds will continue to be widespread
across the region through this evening. Areas in the red flag
warning could see winds gusting between 30 and 50 mph, with the
strongest winds focused in the santa barbara county mountains and
adjacent foothills of the south coast, as well as the interstate 5
corridor. Humidity values have fallen into the teens and 20's
across much of the warning area this afternoon and will persist
through this evening, with higher humidities continuing across the
north facing mountains. Other portions of southwest california
will continue to see gusty northerly winds with elevated fire
weather conditions through this evening.

Weak to locally moderate santa ana winds are expected later tonight
through Wednesday, bringing an extended period of very warm and
dry conditions, resulting in continued elevated to brief critical
fire weather conditions. Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be
common across wind prone areas of los angeles and ventura counties
as well as the central coast, with isolated gusts to 40 mph in
the mountains of los angeles county on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum
humidities are expected to range between 10 and 20 percent on
Monday, lowering to between 8 and 15 percent on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Maximum temperatures are generally expected to range
between 85 and 97 degrees during this time.

Long range computer models are showing the potential for a moderate
santa ana wind event with widespread single digit humidities and
very warm temperatures Thursday into Friday, however there
continues to be uncertainty in the strength of this offshore wind
event. Early estimates with this event are wind gusts up to 50
mph or higher in the mountains. Critical fire weather conditions
will be possible with this santa ana wind event Thursday into
Friday, the prolonged period of very warm and dry conditions with
very dry fuels leading into this Thursday Friday event will add to
the fire weather concerns.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Monday for zones
39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until noon pdt Monday for zones
44>46-53-54-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening for
zones 239-246-252>254-288-547. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Monday for
zones 655-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible over
los angeles and ventura counties Thursday Friday due to hot and
dry conditions and moderate santa ana winds.

Public... Boldt
aviation... Hall
marine... Hall
beaches... Sweet
fire weather... Gomberg
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 2 mi54 min SSW 2.9 G 2.9 66°F 1014.1 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 12 mi40 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 63°F4 ft1014.3 hPa60°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi50 min 9 ft
46251 45 mi30 min 62°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA6 mi37 minNE 410.00 miFair61°F45°F56%1013.9 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi35 minSSW 510.00 miFair64°F35°F34%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW4Calm43CalmCalmCalmSE3SW4W6W6SW7SE8S7SE5SE3S4N43S3CalmCalmNE4
1 day agoN8W5N13
G17
W7W95CalmE3SE3SE7SE85S6SE8E8S9W13
G18
NW8NW8N7NW11CalmN9W6
2 days agoN17NW18CalmCalmNW5E5NW3NE114N16
G22
E8SE114SE8SE7SE5W11W10NW63N16NW8W10NW13

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.