Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:44 PM   Moonset 2:54 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 206 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. S swell 2 ft after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.Mon - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Mon night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest wester portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.Wed - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 206 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 18z, or 11 am pdt, a 1031 mb surface high was centered 900 nm west of portland, oregon. A 1005 mb low was centered in southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 172101 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 201 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
17/103 PM.

A persistent marine layer will remain in place through the weekend as strong onshore flow continues across the area. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a staple of the forecast, struggling to clear from the coast each afternoon.
Breezy to gusty onshore winds will occur across the interior valleys and adjacent foothill areas each afternoon and evening.
Better clearing with slight warming is possible next week as onshore flow could weaken.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...17/148 PM.

A long wave trough embedded along the West Coast will remain more or less in place into early next week. This will maintain a favorable scenario for a deep marine layer, areas of morning drizzle, and slow if any clearing for coast and coastal valleys, especially south of Pt Conception. One caveat to that is today there were signs of a reverse clearing pattern setting up where clouds cleared first over the coastal waters. With some further deepening of the marine layer possible the next couple nights, this trend may grow to encompass more of the coastal areas and possibly parts of the coastal valleys. So, the upshot of that is there is low confidence regarding the clearing potential this weekend. Either way, temperatures will remain at least 3-6 degrees below normal and possibly more where clouds linger most of all of the day.

On Monday the trough will deepen along the coast and also pull in a secondary upper low to our southwest that has been slowly working its way eastward. This will likely deepen the marine layer further with possibly more extensive drizzle during the morning hours and lower chances for afternoon clearing.

For far interior areas skies will generally remain clear, though can't rule out some stratus making into parts of the Antelope Valley, interior SLO County and the Cuyama Valley. Temperatures there will be a few degrees above normal through the period.
Gusty west to southwest winds likely each afternoon.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/200 PM.

There is still good model and ensemble agreement on a significant weakening of the onshore flow Tue/Wed following the passage of the persistent long wave trough along the West Coast. NAEFS and deterministic pressure gradients all showing onshore flow weakening 3-4mb Tuesday with the flow aloft shifting to the north- northwest. This should promote much earlier marine layer clearing and 4-8 degrees of warming, especially in the coastal valleys.

This may be short-lived though as models are showing yet another upper low dropping out of the Pac NW Thu/Fri that will likely pus southwest California right back into the deep marine layer pattern. And it looks like that will remain through the following weekend.

AVIATION
17/1759Z.

At 1735Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was 5400 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Overall for the 18Z TAF package, high confidence for desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal/valley sites due to uncertainties with flight category changes with the marine layer stratus.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 40% chance that MVFR CIGs do not dissipate this afternoon. Timing of return of MVFR CIGs this evening could be +/- 2 hours of current 03Z forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs this afternoon could be +/- 1 hour of current 21Z forecast. For tonight, timing of return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 05Z forecast.

MARINE
17/1242 PM.

For the Outer Waters, generally high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Saturday, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. On Sunday, SCA level winds will develop across PZZ670 then spread into PZZ673/676 Monday through Wednesday with the potential for SCA level seas also.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the area, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels tonight through Wednesday. However across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Monday through Wednesday, mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

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