Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...06/925 AM.

***UPDATE***

The weak storm system that dropped some light rain along the Central Coast yesterday has moved east. There is still some lingering moisture across the interior but that should diminish through the day. Overall a quiet day today but as mentioned below north winds will be increasing later this afternoon and particularly overnight into Friday morning and wind advisories are in effect across the Santa Ynez Range and the Santa Lucias.
May also need to consider a wind advisory for the I5 corridor region as well tonight. Some of those winds will filter down into the LA/Ventura valleys later tonight into Friday.

Confidence is growing in another significant warming trend this weekend, particularly Sunday and Monday with highs possibly getting into the 90s again across coast and valleys.

***From Previous Discussion***

What is left of the storm will move east, and a northerly surface pressure gradient will tighten through tonight. Another system moving through the Pacific Northwest will keep cooler air to the north and northwest of the region, meanwhile ridging aloft to the southwest will start to build into the region. A tightening pressure difference between the two air masses will bring gusty Sundowner winds to southwestern Santa Barbara County this evening and maybe gusty northerly winds to the Interstate 5 Corridor. A wind advisory was added for southwestern Santa Barbara County, but there is a good chance that this advisory will need to be reissued, extended, or expanded into Friday night and Saturday as the gradient will linger. There is a moderate chance that the winds turn more north to northeasterly on Friday night and bring advisory level winds into the eastern portions of southern Santa Barbara County.

While less certain, breezy to locally windy conditions could develop through the Interstate 5 Corridor. Marginally gusty winds could develop through the Interstate 5 Corridor. NAM MOS guidance indicates gusty winds for KSDB, while NAM-WRF solutions advertise boundary layer, 950 mb, and 850 mb winds approaching advisory criteria through the broader zone. EPS ensemble members suggest NAM-WRF deterministic solutions to be the outlier and keep all the gusts below advisory criteria. The decision for a wind advisory for the Interstate 5 Corridor was tabled for now to wait for more data in support.

The flow pattern will turn more offshore between tonight and Friday night. An upper-level ridge centered near 26N and 137W will build into the region through the weekend, while a cold air mass remains in the Great Basin. An offshore flow regime will start to develop from late tonight through the weekend. North to northeast winds will push into advisory levels across San Luis Obispo County as gusty Santa Lucia winds develop through the Santa Lucia mountains. There is a chance that this advisory could be expanded into the coastal portions of San Luis Obispo County, but the forecast waits for a little more certainty on the winds.

500 mb heights will climb each day into the weekend as the upper- level ridge builds into the California coast. The warming trend will turn sharper on Friday as offshore flow establishes beneath the upper-level ridge. Temperatures will spike to levels above normal for this time of year with mid 70s to mid 80s being common across the coastal and valley areas.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...06/305 AM.

High pressure aloft continues to build over the region into Monday, while offshore flow remains in place. The warmest days of the stretch could occur on Sunday or Monday. The latest forecast ensembles suggest 500 mb height means climbing into Monday. There is still some variations in the exact temperature values, but the synoptic pattern combined with the height rises would strongly lean toward even warmer temperatures on Sunday and Monday.

The latest NAM-WRF deterministic solutions suggest a new wrinkle of a low-end advisory level Santa Ana wind event setting up for Sunday morning. EPS ensemble members only have about a tenth of the member solutions with winds reaching advisory levels at KCMA.
If this does occur as progged this could push temperatures into the lower 90s along the coast and drive heat risk values into marginal categories for heat headlines across the Southland. In addition, fire weather conditions could deteriorate some, especially with several days of drier and warmer weather in advance of Santa Ana wind event.

Rain could be in our future for latter half of next week. The forecast ensembles cannot agree yet on exact details, but there remains a potential for one or two storms that could affect the region and bring somewhere between one and three inches of rain to the region. Some consolidation is occurring in the timing with the latest ensembles. Most have the wet weather beginning either Thursday or Thursday night. While the bulk of the ensemble members have rain, there are still a small amount of outlier perturbations that could end up verifying and keep the area dry.
The forecast goes with NBM values for the current time and advertises rain likely by next Thursday.

AVIATION
06/1700Z.

At 1630Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5200 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KVNY, KBUR, KWJF and KPMD.
Moderate confidence in coastal sites as well as KPRB due to uncertainties with the marine layer stratus with a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions after 06Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 08Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF.

MARINE
06/716 AM.

High confidence in a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds and seas through Friday across the entirety of the Outer Waters and Central Coast nearshore waters. Seas will peak across the Outer Waters around 16 ft today. Wave heights will begin to decrease some Friday, but will remain large into at least Saturday morning. Conditions will gradually improve with light winds and calm seas expected by Sunday.

Localized Gale Force winds may occur in an area from Point Conception south to San Nicolas Island and westward 40 NM this afternoon through Friday evening.

Seas will continue to increase across the Inner Waters south of Point Conception through the morning, peaking this afternoon with seas around 10 feet across the Santa Barbara Channel and generally 6 to 8 feet across the waters adjacent to Los Angeles and Orange counties.

In addition to hazardous seas, W-NW winds of 20-30 knots will be common across the western portion of the SB channel this afternoon and evening. High confidence in conditions improving Friday and becoming relatively calm by Saturday.

Today and Friday, large tidal swings between morning high tide and afternoon low tides (7-8 ft changes) will cause strong currents nearshore. The large west-northwest swell combined with the high tides will create breaking waves at Morro Bay Harbor and possibly Ventura Harbor.

BEACHES
06/331 AM.

Coastal Flood Advisories, High Surf Advisories, and a Beach Hazards Statement have been issued across ALL coastal areas due to the high astronomical tides and a large west-northwest swell.

Peak surf heights are more likely to line up with Today's high tide along the Central Coast, although surf heights will be abnormally large throughout the region through the Friday morning high tide.

Refer to the CFWLOX and SRFLOX for additional details.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 11 AM PST Friday for zone 342. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday afternoon for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for zones 362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).