Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/143 PM.

The peak of the heat is happening now (1pm) with widespread triple digits in the western San Fernando Valley as well as the Santa Clarita Valley, interior SLO, and the deserts. Gradients ended up staying lightly onshore which likely will keep temperatures down a few degrees from previous forecasts. The intense heat is creating some cumulus over of the mountains but chances for any storms are under 10%. Biggest concern today and overnight is the potential gusty Sundowners and temperatures in the 90s and possibly lower 100s in the foothills and mountains. Gradients are expected to peak this evening between -2mb and -3mb resulting in winds in the 30-45mph range with local gusts up to 55 mph.

Over the next few days gradients will be trending onshore, leading to earlier onset of cooling ocean breezes and overall lower temperatures. Cooling will be minor Thursday, generally 4 degrees of less, but then more significant cooling Friday bringing temperatures back down to near normal levels for this time of year.

By the weekend, if not before, the marine layer is expected to return to coastal areas

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/156 PM.

Fairly dull summer like weather is on tap for the weekend and next week. The large upper high does not move much at all and the state will remain under the western edge. Hgts will not budge much and will hover around 591 dam. Mdt to stg onshore flow will be in place through at least Monday. Offshore trends will start on Tuesday.

The onshore flow will bring plenty of night through morning low clouds to the csts (The SBA south coast may remain mostly clear as the Sundowners will continue). The hgts may be strong enough to keep the marine layer smooshed enough to keep the stratus out of the lower vlys.

Max temps will cool some on Saturday and will be near or even a few degrees under normal. Expect little change in temps on Sun and Mon. Slight warming is possible Tue and Wed as the offshore trends develop.

There will be an increase in PWATs Sunday and this trend will continue into next week. This will make the temps feel a little more uncomfortable and could lead to some convection over the mtns in the afternoons.

AVIATION
16/0133Z.

At 2311Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2700 ft with a max temperature of 31 C.

Moderate confidence in VFR TAFs at all sites, highest confidence away from coasts. There is a 20-30% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KLAX/KSMO/KLGB 08Z-17Z. Lower confidence in cig arrival time at KSMX.

KLAX...Fair confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN004-007 cigs after 09Z. Any east wind component is expected to remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
15/111 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest winds across the Outer Waters will continue through late Thursday night. There is a 25% chance of Gales later this afternoon into early Thursday morning.
Seas are expected to build to near 10 feet through this evening.
The elevated winds and seas will extend into the western Santa Barbara Channel and nearshore waters along the Central Coast each afternoon and evening through late Thursday night.

Winds are expected to improve Friday through the weekend while the northwest swell lowers. However, short period choppy seas from a southerly swell associated with tropcial activity well south of the area will impact our waters late this weekend into mcuh of next week.

BEACHES
15/111 PM.

Hazardous rip currents and breaking waves with elevated surf are expected for coastal areas and the beaches of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo Counties, as enhanced southerly swell continues. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during the evenings, given abnormally high tides of 7.0 to 7.6 feet. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect through late tonight.

Beginning Sunday, storms over the Eastern Pacific waters well south of the area could produce increasing southerly swell resulting in additional and potentially more significant hazardous beach conditions.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 38-88-349>353-356>358-368>375-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Thursday for zones 87-341>345-347-348-354-355-362-366-367-376-377-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349>353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).