Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:49PM Friday February 21, 2020 6:25 AM PST (14:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 229 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the morning. Chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 229 Am Pst Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z, or 2 am pst, a 1018 mb surface low was about 450 nm wsw of point conception. A cold front extending south of the low will cross the waters S of point conception tonight through early Saturday along with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Increasing northwest winds are then expected across the waters Saturday night through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 211114 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 314 AM PST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. 20/852 PM.

A low pressure system is forecast to move into the area, bringing more clouds for Friday. By Friday night, showers are expected over the area, persisting into Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms along with these showers. Dry weather returns Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 21/254 AM.

A 554 DM upper low is spinning 500 NM tot WSW of Pt Conception. There is a strong vort lobe just ahead of the low's center that is putting out decent lightning. This low will not start to track to the east until this afternoon and it will not be close enough to bring any showers to the area until this evening so today will be partly cloudy and dry. Gradients are weakly offshore not strong enough to produce much of any wind but strong enough to keep the low clouds away. Max temps will be cooler than yesterday's readings but the offshore flow will keep them above normal.

The upper low will arrive just to the south of San Miguel island by 12Z. A chance of rain will develop over the Central Coast in the evening but the bulk of the precipitation action will hold off until after midnight. The chc of rain will increase through the early morning hours across srn SBA county and VTA counties and to a lesser extent LA county. One question that remains is the wind direction ahead of the low. The latest NAM indicates a more ESE direction which would limit the amount of rain due to either down sloping drying or because of reduced upslope flow. Snow levels will start out around 7000 feet but by dawn will be nearer to 5500 ft. There should not be much of any snow issues in the overnight hours.

The best chc of showers will be Saturday morning as the upper low moves due east into LA county. Rain will be likely across LA and VTA counties but the chc of rain will diminish across SBA and esp SLO county. The low will accelerate to the east in the afternoon and the rain chcs will diminish from W to E. Wrap around flow from the upper will enhance the rain chc across the north slopes of the San Gabriels and the Antelope Vly.

500 mb temps of -27 C will produce lifted index values between -1 and -4. This and the fact that the system is already producing lightning indicate that there will be a slight chc of a TSTM across the waters and the southern portion of SBA/VTA/LA counties as well as the inner waters. CAPE values will be between 500-900 J/kg. Any thunderstorm that develops could produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, small hail, and isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters.

Rainfall amounts range from 0.10 to 0.50 inches, except locally higher amounts will be possible near thunderstorms or heavier showers (especially over LA County) and lesser amounts across the Central Coast.

Snow levels will lower to 5000 Saturday morning. This system should produce 1 to 3 inches of new snow can near the resort levels with lesser amounts to 5000 ft. The major mountain passes should not have any winter weather issues.

Max temps will only reach into the low and mid 60s across the coasts and vlys.

There will be some lingering wrap around showers across the San Gabriels in the evening but otherwise it will be dry.

A decent eddy spins up early Sunday morning and this will bring marine layer stratus to most of the coasts and vlys. The afternoon will be sunny however and max temps will rise a few degrees but will mostly be a degree or two below normal.

After the low exits, dry NW flow will set up on Sunday and skies will clear out. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees but still remain a little below normal.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 21/313 AM.

Look for a little ridge to slide over the area on Monday. Offshore flow will develop as sfc high pressure moves into NV. It will be strongest from the north. There will be some northerly offshore winds which will be strong enough to keep the low clouds away and will also bring a sharp jump in temps and most of the cst and vlys will see above normal temps.

There will be dry NW flow over the area on Tue and Wed. The northerly offshore flow peaks Tuesday and there good be some advisory level gusts through the mtns and across the SBA south coast. The offshore flow weakens on Wednesday but will still produce some sub advisory gusts. It will be rather warm both days with 578 DM hgts and offshore flow. Max temps will end up 5 to 10 degrees above normal and there will be a smattering of max temps in the lower 80s both days.

A ridge moves into the area Thursday. Hgts climb to 580 DM and offshore flow will persist. Max temps will continue to be well above normal and will be very similar to Wednesday's or perhaps even a little warmer.

AVIATION. 21/1049Z.

At 0930Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

High confidence in the current forecast through 22Z, then moderate confidence thereafter. There is a chance of MVFR conditions in rain/showers after 22Z. There is a slight chance to chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after 20Z at all terminals.

KLAX . VFR conditions are expected through 23Z, then there is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions in rain/showers, increasing to 50 percent after 09Z. There is a 30 percent chance of east winds between 7 and 10 knots between 12Z and 18Z. There is a 20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after 02Z.

KBUR . VFR conditions are expected through 05Z, then there is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions in rain/showers, increasing to 50 percent after 11Z. There is a 30 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after 20Z.

MARINE. 21/307 AM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher confidence exists for the outer and northern waters, less confidence inside the southern California bight.

For the Outer Waters, moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday, then there is a 80 percent chance a mix of SCA level winds and seas Saturday night through Monday. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level winds lingering through Tuesday. There is also a 20 percent chance of gale force wind gusts between Sunday and Monday.

For the nearshore waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through early Sunday. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA winds at times between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, Wind and seas conditions will likely remain below SCA levels through Saturday. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA level W-NW winds across the western SBA Channel Saturday night through Sunday night. There is also a 20 percent chance of SCA gusts for the western portion of the southern inner waters zone Saturday night through Sunday.

Otherwise, a cold storm system will move over the coastal waters late tonight through Saturday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the southern California bight and south and west out to San Nicolas Island. Any thunderstorms that develop would bring the potential for brief downpours, locally gusty winds and choppy seas, small hail and dangerous cloud-to-ocean lightning. Conditions will also be favorable for the formation of waterspouts.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

There is a chance of gusty north to northeast winds Monday through Wednesday.



PUBLIC . Rorke AVIATION . Hall MARINE . Hall SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi49 min W 1 G 4.1 57°F 1015.8 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi35 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 59°F2 ft1015.8 hPa
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi35 min ENE 1.9 G 5.8 58°F 58°F3 ft1015.3 hPa55°F
HRVC1 44 mi55 min 56°F 1015.4 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi85 min N 2.9 G 4.1 57°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.3)
46251 47 mi55 min 59°F2 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi32 minNNW 310.00 miFair48°F39°F74%1015.3 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair43°F35°F76%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3W3NE4SE75S6SW6S4SW6SW5W5CalmCalmW5NE3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN6NW3
1 day agoN3NE3E5S7SE7S7SW4SW7SW6SW6S3SE5E4SW3N3N3CalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmNE3Calm
2 days agoNE5NE4CalmSE5SE8S6S5S6SW7W11W8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4CalmCalmCalmNE5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:13 AM PST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:19 AM PST     5.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM PST     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:10 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:49 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:46 PM PST     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.81.92.53.44.35.25.65.54.83.62.20.8-0.2-0.8-0.701.12.23.23.843.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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