Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:51PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 11:52 PM PST (07:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:44PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 835 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to ft at 9 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..Western portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Fri..Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 17 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds around 10 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Sat..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft dominant period 15 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Sun..N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 835 Pm Pst Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1025 mb high pressure center was 400 nm southwest of point conception and will strengthen through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 120507 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 907 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. 11/907 PM.

Temperatures will warm through Friday as the region remains dry with periods of sunshine. A large westerly swell will bring high waves and surf from Thursday through the weekend, and light rain is expected Saturday in mountain areas. Areas of gusty winds will persist through the weekend and Santa Ana winds are expected to develop Monday of next week.

SHORT TERM (WED-SAT). 11/837 PM.

***UPDATE***

Overall, another quiet evening across the district. Latest satellite shows plentiful mid to high clouds moving over the area which will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy tonight. With respect to stratus, weak offshore flow should keep most areas stratus-free overnight. The only exception may be the interior valleys of SLO county and the Central Coast where patchy low clouds/dense fog will be possible later tonight. A stray light shower would not be out of the question across far northern SLO county overnight, but not enough concern for measurable rainfall to include in the forecast at this time.

As for winds, do not anticipate any significant issues overnight. Current observations indicate some gusty northerly winds across the mountains and SBA South Coast, but winds are generally below advisory levels. Overnight, expect the northerly flow to continue then shift more northeasterly towards morning. However, given weak gradients and limited upper level support, do not anticipate any widespread advisory-level north to northeast winds.

Current forecast looks to have very good handle on the immediate short term. So, no updates are planned at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Building high pressure aloft and light offshore flow through Friday will lead to significant warming the next couple days, peaking Friday with highs in the mid to even upper 70s in some of the warmer valleys of LA/Ventura Counties. These will be the warmest temps we've seen since before Thanksgiving and likely the warmest we'll see in the next week to ten days at least. High clouds will increase tonight into Thursday morning but should clear out for plenty of sunshine both days.

There will be some locally gusty northerly winds in the mountains and in srn SB County but speeds should be below advisory levels.

The ridge will break down Saturday and allow a weak front to pass through. Given the path this system is taking it doesn't have much moisture with it but as the moisture banks up against the north facing mountains from the Grapevine through southeast SLO County light showers are possible Saturday with snow levels possibly lowering to around 4000' (Grapevine level) by late Saturday night. Advisory level northwest winds possible Friday night into Saturday for the Grapevine and possible srn SB County and the Antelope Valley. Temperatures will cool several degrees Saturday as gradients turn onshore and cooler air aloft arrives with the front.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 11/152 PM.

Gusty northerly winds will continue in the mountains and srn SB County Sunday before shifting to northeast Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF is much stronger with the offshore flow than the GFS and seems overdone given the more progressive upper level pattern and the EC ensembles. So breezy offshore winds are possible both days but below advisory levels. The air mass is much cooler than it will be this Thu/Fri so even with the offshore flow temps will still mostly be in the 60s at lower elevations which is near seasonal norms.

Models in better agreement Tue night into Wed now both showing a weak trough coming through. Not much moisture going for it and only a small chance of showers, better north of Pt Conception.

AVIATION. 11/2308Z.

At 2245Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 700 feet. The top of the inversion was 1600 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. North of Point Conception, there is a 60% chance of VLIFR conditions at KPRB and a 50% chance of VLIFR conditions at KSMX. South of Point Conception, conditions are expected to remain VFR through TAF period.

KLAX . High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There is a 10% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 10Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . High confidence in 00Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

MARINE. 11/836 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across PZZ673/676 through Thursday night then spread into PZZ670 on Friday. The SCA level winds will continue across all the Outer Waters through Sunday with a 50% chance of Gale force winds Saturday and Sunday. With the gusty winds, short-period, choppy seas will be likely.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Thursday and Friday then a 70% chance of SCA level winds on Saturday and Sunday (with a 20% chance of Gale force gusts Saturday and Sunday). With the gusty winds, short-period, choppy seas will be likely.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday and Friday. From Friday night through Sunday, there is an 80% chance of SCA level northwest winds (especially across western sections) and a 30% chance of Gale force gusts. On Monday, the winds will shift to the northeast with a 50% chance of SCA level northeast winds on Monday.

A large and long period west to northwest swell will impact the coastal waters Thursday through Sunday, resulting in hazardous sea conditions and large breaking waves near shore, especially with a large short period wind swell on top of that. Breaking waves at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances are possible.

BEACHES. 11/836 PM.

A large long-period west to northwest swell will fill into the coastal waters of southwest California Thursday, peak on Friday, then slowly diminish over the weekend. Surf will likely peak between 12 and 16 feet and 6 to 10 feet over the southern waters. Will issue the High Surf Advisory for the Central Coast today, but will hold off on the southern beaches until tomorrow (since it starts later). Strong rip currents and dangerous breaking waves are expected.

With high tides around 6.5 feet Friday and Saturday, minor coastal flooding is possible during the late morning high tides. Any coastal flooding impacts should be confined to the beaches, with flooding possible in the most vulnerable parking lots, bike paths, and walkways. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued tomorrow. There is a chance of more impactful flooding over vulnerable roads in the Ventura area.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Thursday to noon PST Monday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

High surf is likely and minor coastal flooding is possible this weekend at area beaches. Strong northwest winds expected over the weekend in southern Santa Barbara County, and parts of LA/Ventura Counties.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RAT BEACHES . Kittell SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi76 min W 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 1022.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi32 min W 14 G 18 61°F 61°F1022.2 hPa60°F
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi32 min WNW 16 G 19 58°F 60°F1023.4 hPa56°F
HRVC1 44 mi52 min 57°F 1023.8 hPa (-0.0)
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi52 min N 12 G 14 56°F 1023.2 hPa (+0.0)
46251 47 mi52 min 61°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi59 minVar 410.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1021.6 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBA

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE7S6SW3SW3SW7SW4N6SW5W6CalmNW3Calm4
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE6SE5CalmS43W4SW3W3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmNW3
2 days agoCalmN8CalmN4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3SE5SE10S7CalmS5S5SE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
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Thu -- 02:45 AM PST     1.98 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:05 AM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:19 PM PST     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:34 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:51 PM PST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.52.122.33455.86.15.953.72.20.8-0.3-0.8-0.6-01233.53.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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