Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isla Vista, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...24/208 PM.

Marine layer stratus has cleared better today, likely due to a slightly weaker inversion and a 2-3mb offshore gradient trend. And with that clearing came a 1-3 degree bump in temperatures this afternoon.

With the next trough quickly approaching this afternoon the marine layer tonight should deepen by at least 500-1000 feet with clouds returning to all coast and valleys this evening and overnight. And again a chance of some drizzle in the morning hours Friday, especially near the foothills. And with an even weaker inversion in place tomorrow chances are high that most areas will see at least some sunshine by afternoon with temperatures similar to today.

The trough will move through the area Saturday with at least some light rain expected across most of the CWA Best chances are in the morning hours to early afternoon, though it could start as early as midnight in coastal SLO County. With virtually all the ensemble solutions now supporting rain almost area-wide, pops have been increased to 60-80 percent, except lower across the desert.
Rain amounts have been increased slightly as well up to around a third of an inch across LA/Ventura Counties and up to a half inch across SLO/SB Counties. Small thunderstorm chances have been added as well to interior SLO/SB and the northern Ventura mountains in the afternoon as the low is expected to move onshore somewhere between Cambria and Vandenberg. If it ends up on the southern end of that area thunderstorm chances may need to be added to areas south of Pt Conception.

The low is expected to be east of the area Saturday evening with decreasing showers. However, there's enough low and mid level moisture lingering into early Sunday that it wouldn't a complete surprise if a random shower pops up overnight into early Sunday morning. Otherwise, Sunday is expected to be dry with slightly warmer temperatures but still 3-6 degrees below normal in most areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...24/210 PM.

An impulse dropping southward on the backside of the upper low will keep a trough in place over the region Sun night/Mon.
However, a few degrees of warming is likely in most areas as heights trend upward.

Upper ridging will bring more significant warming to the region Tue with highs at least in the lower 80s for the warmer valleys and upper 60s and 70s elsewhere along with mostly clear skies.
Heights will begin to lower Wed, and onshore flow will increase.
This may bring some cooling, especially to coastal areas.

AVIATION
24/1616Z.

At 1503Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was around 5500 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 3 hours, but good confidence in clearing at all sites between 19Z and 22Z. Flight cats may frequently bounce between MVFR and VFR when cigs are present through 22Z and again after 02Z. Cigs may arrive tonight as VFR and remain OVC035 or higher through the period due to deepening marine layer overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. BKN015-025 cigs may bounce in and out through 22Z. OVC020-030 cigs may arrive as early as 04Z or as late as 10Z. There is a 20% chance for VFR cigs prevail overnight into the morning. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Transition to MVFR cigs tonight may be as early 05Z or as late as 10Z. There is a 10% chance VFR cigs prevail overnight into the morning.

MARINE
24/126 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
There is a 60% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds for the waters around Point Conception down to San Nicolas Island through late tonight. SCA conds are not expected Friday, then there is a 30% chance Sat. Widespread chances for SCA conds increase (60-80%) Sun afternoon thru at least Tues night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level NW wind gusts in the northern portion of the zone near San Simeon through later this evening. Conds are expected to remain sub- advisory Fri, then there is a 30% chance Sat afternoon/eve.
Potential for widespread SCA winds increases during afternoon/eve hours Sun thru Tues (50-70% chance).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in the forecast. SCA level winds are likely (70% chance) in the Santa Barbara Channel tonight, with highest confidence in the western portion of the Channel. Then, sub- advisory conds are expected Fri. There is a 30-40% chance for brief SCA level winds Sat morning, then conds should remain sub advisory through Sun morning. Then W-NW SCA winds are likely Sun afternoon thru Tues night across most of the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, especially in the afternoon/eve hours.

Across the waters, seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through the forecast period.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).