Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:34 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 254 Am Pdt Mon May 20 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Wed - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 254 Am Pdt Mon May 20 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1034 mb surface high was centered 1200 nm northwest of los angeles while a 1002 mb thermal low was centered over southern nevada.

FXUS66 KLOX 201016 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 316 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
20/228 AM.

Low clouds will continue through the morning will better clearing in the afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will continue this afternoon and evening. More sunshine with slight warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...20/312 AM.

Clearing was a little better last evening but persistent onshore flow as well as a weak eddy have steadily brought the low clouds back to the csts/vlys and onto the coastal slopes. Weak north flow across SBA county may keep portions of the SBA south coast clear.
A weak trof will transverse the area this morning and it will provide enough lift to create a few pockets of morning drizzle.
The trof will also weaken the inversion and this coupled with offshore trends should allow for a little better and a little earlier clearing. Lower hgts from the trof will cool the csts/vlys a little but the interior will see 4 to 8 degrees of cooling. Max temps today will be in the 60s across the csts/vlys and in the 70s for most of the interior. These temps are 6 to 12 degrees blo normal. It will again be a breezy afternoon across the interior and esp the western Antelope Vly and foothills were there will be local advisory level gusts.

The forecasted offshore trends for tonight are now weaker and its doubtful that the marine layer will be affected too much (it will likely keep the clouds out of the mtns) Look for most of the csts/vlys to fill with low clouds and only the bare minimum of canyon winds in the mtns.

2 to 3 mbs of offshore trends Tuesday afternoon are not strong enough to bring offshore flow to the area but the weakened onshore flow will allow for a much more complete clearing and a delayed seabreeze as well as a slower return of the low clouds in the evening. More sunshine and a weaker sea breeze as well as rising hgts will all combine to bring 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of warming to the area. Even with this noticeable warm up max temps will still come in 4 to 8 degrees below normal.

Wednesday will be the nicest day of the next 7. The marine layer will cover most of the coasts but not as much into the vlys. There will be good clearing and max temps will rise another 1 to 3 degrees, but will still not reach normals.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...20/1223 AM.

Both deterministic and ensemble mdl fcsts agree that the xtnd fcst will be dominated by long wave troffing. Many ensembles also show a little short wave embedded in the broad cyclonic flow moving over the state Friday night.

Also mdls show the E Pac High increasing and the interior afternoon thermal sfc low strengthening. This will bring a return of strong W to E onshore flow.

Look for the marine layer to increase again covering much of the csts and vlys and xtndg into the mtns passes. Clearing will be delayed with many coastal areas seeing no clearing at all. The trof passage on Friday night may bring some drizzle to the area Saturday morning.

The strong onshore flow will bring gusty possibly advisory level winds to the interior particularly the western Antelope Vly and foothills.

Max temps will drop both on Thu and Fri as the marine layer and onshore flow increases. Max temps on Friday across the csts and vlys will mostly be in the 60s with just a very few vly sites hitting 70 degrees. Max temps will end up 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees blo normals. Max temps over the weekend will change little from Friday's chilly values.

AVIATION
20/1015Z.

At 0815Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 5000 feet with a temperature of 17 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. There is a 20 percent chc of no clearing at coastal site in the afternoon. If clearing does develop it may differ from fcst by +/- 90 minutes.
There is a 40 percent chc of no drizzle at sites where it is fcst.
There is a 30 percent chc at any cstl site of MVFR cigs returning by 03Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no drizzle. There is a 20 percent chc of BKN025 conds persisting through the afternoon, otherwise SCT conds could arrive anytime 20Z-22Z. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN015 conds develop at 21/03Z and a 20 percent chc not until 10Z. There is a 30 percent chc of a 6 knot east wind component thru 15Z.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no drizzle. SCT conds could arrive anytime 18Z-20Z. Low clouds may not redevelop until 21/11Z.

MARINE
20/254 AM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) seas and/or northwest winds continuing over the offshore waters from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Tuesday and likely beyond. There will likely be brief and slight lulls each morning. There is a 30 percent chance of SCA for the western Santa Barbara Channel each evening. SCA conditions are unlikely elsewhere. Fairly large seas will continue as a result, with short period dominant seas over most nearshore waters.

A long period south to southwest swell will peak through Monday with heights of 2 to 4 feet. This will create larger than usual breaking waves nearshore as well as some stronger currents near most harbor entrances.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Barbara
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Mon -- 02:56 AM PDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM PDT     3.42 feet High Tide
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Santa Barbara
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Mon -- 02:58 AM PDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 AM PDT     Moonset
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Mon -- 09:01 AM PDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:12 PM PDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
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