Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 6:43 PM   Moonset 5:06 AM

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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 356 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Wed - SW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers. Thu - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Fri - NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.

AMZ100 356 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure centered to the south will push offshore tonight with a frontal passage expected on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 231943 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 343 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered to the south will push offshore tonight with a frontal passage expected on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and eventually slides offshore this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Tue... A rather delightful afternoon across ENC as high pressure continues to ridge N'wards keeping skies clear, and winds light as temps have climbed into mid 60s inland and into the mid to upper 50s along the OBX. As we get into tonight high pressure will gradually push offshore with a cold front gradually approaching from the north and west. This will keep a slightly pinched gradient across the CWA tonight allowing winds to remain elevated at about 5-10 mph tonight coming from the S-SW. While skies will continue to remain clear tonight this elevated S'rly wind field will keep temps mild as compared to last night with lows getting down into the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 330 PM Tue...As we get into Wednesday a cold front will continue to approach ENC from the north and west eventually beginning to track across the area Wed afternoon and evening.
This will do a few things, it will increase cloud cover as mid and upper level moisture begin to stream in from the south and west out ahead of the incoming front, as well as bring a chance for some light shower activity across ENC from about 2PM on into this evening. Latest Hi-Res guidance has come in rather robust with precip chances and with the HRRR probabilities of seeing at least 0.01 inches of precip around 40-70% have increased precip chances slightly closer to 20-25% Wed afternoon though given the latest trends PoP's may need to increase further on future updates. Even with this front approaching and beginning to move through the area during peak heating both ensemble and deterministic probs for thunder are less than 10% so have kept thunder out of the forecast on Wed. Finally the only other impact this front will bring ill be to disrupt the wind field around the frontal passage with 10-15 mph SW'rly winds briefly becoming W-NW'rly at 5-10 mph directly behind the front. Temps on Wed get into the low to mid 70s everywhere but the NOBX where mid to upper 60s are currently forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting up through Monday.

Wednesday night...Dry cold front will move through Wednesday night from NW to SE. As the front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain below 30 kts.

Thursday to Monday...With the cold front now offshore, gusty conditions will prevail through the afternoon, particularly for OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. High pressure lingers to our north Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft.
Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way.
If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with this update for Saturday as high looks to shelter us from any incoming precip. High will shift to our south in the weekend, and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at the start of next week. After Wednesday's cold front, high temps gradually increase every day, above 80 inland Sunday onwards.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday morning/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday... With high pressure ridging overhead clear skies as well as light and variable winds persist across the much of the CWA this afternoon and should continue into this evening. Only real change in the weather tonight will be winds shifting to more of a S-SW'rly direction at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts at times tonight with VFR conditions persisting through Wed morning. Some high level cloud cover could begin sneaking into our northern zones by late Wed morning out ahead of an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /Wednesday afternoon through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through Saturday with high pressure dominating the long term. Some isolated showers Wednesday evening will be elevated in nature, with cloud bases around 5kft.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 340 PM Tues... No significant changes to the marine forecast as we are currently in between periods of SCA's with only the central waters currently seeing SCA conditions as waves have remained around 5 to 6 ft across these waters with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere along the coast and light and variable winds across our waters this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient is forecast to overspread ENC tonight as high pressure ridging pushes offshore and a cold front begins to approach from the north and west allowing winds to become SW'rly and increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across all waters outside of the inland rivers. Winds slowly begin to decrease from west to east Wed evening with the approach of the front with winds veering to a W'rly direction across our waters Seas increase across all coastal waters to 4-6 ft to 5-7 ft tonight and remain elevated into Wed evening before lowering.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday... As a dry cold front moves southeastward Wednesday night, northerly winds will pick up behind it, gusting near 25 kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers. Stronger gusts behind the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday will be a quick hitter, and at this point it is unsure if the gusts will be handled with a SCA or a MWS.
Remainder of the long term looks to be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet Thursday-Saturday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

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