Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harkers Island, NC
December 6, 2023 1:43 PM EST (18:43 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM Sunset 4:57PM Moonrise 12:40AM Moonset 1:15PM
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 935 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough this afternoon. A chance of showers late this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the evening, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon, then increasing to very rough. Showers likely. A chance of tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough this afternoon. A chance of showers late this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 3 ft near shore. Dominant period 5 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. NEar shore, seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon, then becoming sw 25 to 30 kt in the evening, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon, then increasing to very rough. Showers likely. A chance of tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 935 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A mid-level shortwave pushing through and a tightened pressure gradient between offshore low and approaching high pressure leads to hazardous marine conditions today into Thursday. High pressure will improve boating conditions late week into Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A mid-level shortwave pushing through and a tightened pressure gradient between offshore low and approaching high pressure leads to hazardous marine conditions today into Thursday. High pressure will improve boating conditions late week into Saturday. A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 061445 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 945 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure offshore continues to lift away from the area while a mid-level shortwave pushes through today, increasing cloudiness and upping chances of light showers. Cool high pressure will then build into the area through Saturday.
A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0945 Wednesday...The scattered showers impacting the northern regions of the CWA have moved in a few hours ahead of schedule with greater coverage, leading to an increase in PoP magnitude and extent going into the afternoon. The shortwave is still expected to move offshore in the afternoon, leading to a quick clearing of skies going into the evening.
Previous Discussion
As of 0700 Wednesday
A stout trough aloft will push across the Eastern Seaboard today with the trough axis sliding offshore around mid afternoon. A round of scattered showers is occurring across the Nern half of the FA with more isolated showers possible elsewhere until the axis moves offshore. Moisture will remain limited and QPF amounts will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. With steep lapse rates and a shallow melting layer below the cold and saturated cloud layer, there is a non- zero threat for some graupel to mix in with the shower activity especially this morning. However, even if this were to occur, no impacts are expected from this. Given confidence in this to occur is so low, leaving only a mention in the AFD as opposed to including in the Wx grids. Precip threat pushes offshore with the passing of the trough, ending by late afternoon/early evening. Strong CAA will increase through the morning with NW wind gusts around 20-25 mph across inland areas to 30-40 mph across the OBX. Temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs expected to occur around noon with Ts succumbing to the CAA and beginning to fall through the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
As of 0400 Wednesday...Downsloping flow in the upper levels in the wake of the exiting trough with expansive ridging currently centered over the AR/MO border spreading ESEward. Skies clear quickly with the incoming subsidence this evening with the brisk low level winds calming as the high pressure slides toward the FA. These sky and calming wind conditions will lead to strong radiational cooling allowing Ts to sharply drop through the first part of tonight, falling through the 30s after sunset with inland sites reaching freezing by midnight. MinTs mid 20s W of HWY17, low 30s Sern beaches, upper 30s OBX.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Cold mid-week, then trending warmer than normal this weekend
FORECAST DETAILS
A dry and chilly post-frontal airmass will remain over the region on Thursday, despite a developing return flow with high pressure shifting offshore. Even with full sunshine, highs will only manage to reach the low 50s, which will be a good 10+ degrees below normal for early December.
After Thursday, the weather pattern will begin to transition from a dry and cold northerly flow regime to a warming, moistening, and more active southerly flow regime. This will occur as a broad trough develops over the Great Plains, and as upper level ridging shifts east into the Atlantic. A shortwave, embedded within the larger trough, will move across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday, then take on a negative tilt as it lifts quickly northeast across the Southeast later Sunday into Sunday night. Ahead of that wave, a deep south to southwesterly flow will develop. This will help to pull a deep layer of moisture north through the region over the weekend, with PWATs getting above 1", and potentially as high as 1.50". This will occur in advance of a strong cold front that will eventually sweep west to east across the Carolinas Sunday or Sunday night.
Prior to the arrival of the front, southerly flow plus warming low- level thicknesses will support highs getting back above normal, especially on Saturday and Sunday. This means highs warming well into the 60s, with low 70s looking increasingly likely for many areas on Sunday.
As the above-mentioned shortwave takes on a negative tilt, an increasingly diffluent flow aloft will develop over the Carolinas.
This will occur in tandem with strong frontal forcing, leading to a period of strong lift overlapping with a plume of anomalous moisture on Sunday. Additionally, a ribbon of weak instability may develop over the area as both temps and dewpoints rise through the 60s beneath weak mid-level lapse rates. This points to widespread showers along the front Sunday, along with the potential for a few thunderstorms. Given the lift/moisture combination, some heavier rainfall rates and minor hydro impacts will be possible.
Additionally, a conditional severe thunderstorm risk may develop provided sufficient destabilization can occur. This looks like a classic high shear/low CAPE scenario
Stay tuned
Another impact will be wind. A moderate to strong pressure gradient combined with shallow mixing will support windy conditions developing Saturday night and lasting into Sunday night. Along the coast, wind gusts as high as 40-45 mph appear likely. This could cause a few power outages, as well as blow around/damage unsecured outdoor items, including holiday decorations. Model guidance are in good agreement regarding Sunday's front, but there are still a few timing and magnitude differences, so stay tuned for updates on the potential impacts this weekend.
Behind Sunday's front, a drying and cooler post-front airmass will settle back into the region early next week.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0645 Wednesday...Mostly VFR flight cats through the period. A strong upper trough will push through the area today bringing additional isolated to scattered showers across rtes which could bring occasional MVFR CIGs, best chance PGV where have included prevailing MVFR CIGs this afternoon. ISO may bounce in and out of MVFR some, so have included tempo group here. SCT MVFR deck other terminals. The upper trough axis pushes offshore around mid afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning by mid to late afternoon. Strong CAA will develop Wednesday with NW winds gusts to around 20-25 kt most terminals except 25-35 kt across the OBX. Winds calm and skies clear quickly after sunset, but winds are forecast to remain ~5kt through the overnight which would preclude any fog threat, especially with such a cool dry airmass filtering into the FA.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, there will be an increased risk of sub- VFR conditions as a cold front moves through with widespread SHRA and a few TSRA. A period of gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of the front late Saturday night into Sunday night. A period of LLWS conditions will be possible as well.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Night/...
As of 0415 Wednesday...Low pressure E of Hatt continues drifting ENEward by a strong mid level shortwave working across the waters today. Currently seeing Nerly winds around 10-15G20kt across the waters with 3-5ft wind-wave period seas 4-6sec.
Winds back to NNW this morning and increase to 20 to 30 kt as strong CAA develops leading to hazardous boating conditions for all area waters. Frequent gusts around 35-40 kt expected across the coastal waters. Gale Warning for all coastal waters with SCAs for all inland waters. Gusts up to 35kt possible over far Eern PamSound when winds peak late this afternoon into this evening, but have chosen to keep just a SCA for this zone.
Short-period seas will build to 5-8 ft by the afternoon, peaking at 6-10ft around sunset, however offshore flow will keep seas around 2-4 ft over the NWerly wind sheltered nearshore waters south of Lookout. Winds subside through the overnight to become NWerly 12-20kt with seas laying down behind them to 4-7ft by sunrise Thurs. Gales drop off just before midnight and SCAs stepping down in the early morning hours.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Impactful marine conditions expected late Saturday into Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead will lead to lower-impact marine conditions through Saturday. During this time, northwest winds of 5-15kt on Thursday will become west or southwest by Friday. At this time, the best boating conditions are expected to be Friday into Saturday, with light winds and seas of 2-4 ft. Conditions will quickly deteriorate Saturday night, and will remain hazardous through early Monday. During this time, a cold front will sweep through with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Increasing south winds of 20-30kt are expected ahead of the front, with frequent gusts of 30-40kt likely. This should lead to another round of marine headlines for all waters, with a mix of SCAs and Gales. Given the strength of the system, a few gusts to near storm force cannot be ruled out over the warmer Gulf Stream waters Sunday/Sunday night.
Winds will then become northwesterly late Sunday night, and lay down to 15-25kt. Seas of 2-4 ft on Saturday will build to 6-10 ft on Sunday. Portions of the central and southern waters may see 10-12 ft seas.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230- 231.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 945 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure offshore continues to lift away from the area while a mid-level shortwave pushes through today, increasing cloudiness and upping chances of light showers. Cool high pressure will then build into the area through Saturday.
A strong cold front will cross the region on Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0945 Wednesday...The scattered showers impacting the northern regions of the CWA have moved in a few hours ahead of schedule with greater coverage, leading to an increase in PoP magnitude and extent going into the afternoon. The shortwave is still expected to move offshore in the afternoon, leading to a quick clearing of skies going into the evening.
Previous Discussion
As of 0700 Wednesday
A stout trough aloft will push across the Eastern Seaboard today with the trough axis sliding offshore around mid afternoon. A round of scattered showers is occurring across the Nern half of the FA with more isolated showers possible elsewhere until the axis moves offshore. Moisture will remain limited and QPF amounts will be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. With steep lapse rates and a shallow melting layer below the cold and saturated cloud layer, there is a non- zero threat for some graupel to mix in with the shower activity especially this morning. However, even if this were to occur, no impacts are expected from this. Given confidence in this to occur is so low, leaving only a mention in the AFD as opposed to including in the Wx grids. Precip threat pushes offshore with the passing of the trough, ending by late afternoon/early evening. Strong CAA will increase through the morning with NW wind gusts around 20-25 mph across inland areas to 30-40 mph across the OBX. Temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs expected to occur around noon with Ts succumbing to the CAA and beginning to fall through the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
As of 0400 Wednesday...Downsloping flow in the upper levels in the wake of the exiting trough with expansive ridging currently centered over the AR/MO border spreading ESEward. Skies clear quickly with the incoming subsidence this evening with the brisk low level winds calming as the high pressure slides toward the FA. These sky and calming wind conditions will lead to strong radiational cooling allowing Ts to sharply drop through the first part of tonight, falling through the 30s after sunset with inland sites reaching freezing by midnight. MinTs mid 20s W of HWY17, low 30s Sern beaches, upper 30s OBX.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Strong cold front to bring the potential of multiple hazards Sunday/Sunday night
2) Cold mid-week, then trending warmer than normal this weekend
FORECAST DETAILS
A dry and chilly post-frontal airmass will remain over the region on Thursday, despite a developing return flow with high pressure shifting offshore. Even with full sunshine, highs will only manage to reach the low 50s, which will be a good 10+ degrees below normal for early December.
After Thursday, the weather pattern will begin to transition from a dry and cold northerly flow regime to a warming, moistening, and more active southerly flow regime. This will occur as a broad trough develops over the Great Plains, and as upper level ridging shifts east into the Atlantic. A shortwave, embedded within the larger trough, will move across the Lower MS Valley on Sunday, then take on a negative tilt as it lifts quickly northeast across the Southeast later Sunday into Sunday night. Ahead of that wave, a deep south to southwesterly flow will develop. This will help to pull a deep layer of moisture north through the region over the weekend, with PWATs getting above 1", and potentially as high as 1.50". This will occur in advance of a strong cold front that will eventually sweep west to east across the Carolinas Sunday or Sunday night.
Prior to the arrival of the front, southerly flow plus warming low- level thicknesses will support highs getting back above normal, especially on Saturday and Sunday. This means highs warming well into the 60s, with low 70s looking increasingly likely for many areas on Sunday.
As the above-mentioned shortwave takes on a negative tilt, an increasingly diffluent flow aloft will develop over the Carolinas.
This will occur in tandem with strong frontal forcing, leading to a period of strong lift overlapping with a plume of anomalous moisture on Sunday. Additionally, a ribbon of weak instability may develop over the area as both temps and dewpoints rise through the 60s beneath weak mid-level lapse rates. This points to widespread showers along the front Sunday, along with the potential for a few thunderstorms. Given the lift/moisture combination, some heavier rainfall rates and minor hydro impacts will be possible.
Additionally, a conditional severe thunderstorm risk may develop provided sufficient destabilization can occur. This looks like a classic high shear/low CAPE scenario
Stay tuned
Another impact will be wind. A moderate to strong pressure gradient combined with shallow mixing will support windy conditions developing Saturday night and lasting into Sunday night. Along the coast, wind gusts as high as 40-45 mph appear likely. This could cause a few power outages, as well as blow around/damage unsecured outdoor items, including holiday decorations. Model guidance are in good agreement regarding Sunday's front, but there are still a few timing and magnitude differences, so stay tuned for updates on the potential impacts this weekend.
Behind Sunday's front, a drying and cooler post-front airmass will settle back into the region early next week.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0645 Wednesday...Mostly VFR flight cats through the period. A strong upper trough will push through the area today bringing additional isolated to scattered showers across rtes which could bring occasional MVFR CIGs, best chance PGV where have included prevailing MVFR CIGs this afternoon. ISO may bounce in and out of MVFR some, so have included tempo group here. SCT MVFR deck other terminals. The upper trough axis pushes offshore around mid afternoon with pred VFR conditions returning by mid to late afternoon. Strong CAA will develop Wednesday with NW winds gusts to around 20-25 kt most terminals except 25-35 kt across the OBX. Winds calm and skies clear quickly after sunset, but winds are forecast to remain ~5kt through the overnight which would preclude any fog threat, especially with such a cool dry airmass filtering into the FA.
LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through at least Saturday.
Late Saturday into Sunday, there will be an increased risk of sub- VFR conditions as a cold front moves through with widespread SHRA and a few TSRA. A period of gusty southerly winds will develop ahead of the front late Saturday night into Sunday night. A period of LLWS conditions will be possible as well.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday Night/...
As of 0415 Wednesday...Low pressure E of Hatt continues drifting ENEward by a strong mid level shortwave working across the waters today. Currently seeing Nerly winds around 10-15G20kt across the waters with 3-5ft wind-wave period seas 4-6sec.
Winds back to NNW this morning and increase to 20 to 30 kt as strong CAA develops leading to hazardous boating conditions for all area waters. Frequent gusts around 35-40 kt expected across the coastal waters. Gale Warning for all coastal waters with SCAs for all inland waters. Gusts up to 35kt possible over far Eern PamSound when winds peak late this afternoon into this evening, but have chosen to keep just a SCA for this zone.
Short-period seas will build to 5-8 ft by the afternoon, peaking at 6-10ft around sunset, however offshore flow will keep seas around 2-4 ft over the NWerly wind sheltered nearshore waters south of Lookout. Winds subside through the overnight to become NWerly 12-20kt with seas laying down behind them to 4-7ft by sunrise Thurs. Gales drop off just before midnight and SCAs stepping down in the early morning hours.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGES
1) Impactful marine conditions expected late Saturday into Sunday
FORECAST DETAILS
High pressure overhead will lead to lower-impact marine conditions through Saturday. During this time, northwest winds of 5-15kt on Thursday will become west or southwest by Friday. At this time, the best boating conditions are expected to be Friday into Saturday, with light winds and seas of 2-4 ft. Conditions will quickly deteriorate Saturday night, and will remain hazardous through early Monday. During this time, a cold front will sweep through with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Increasing south winds of 20-30kt are expected ahead of the front, with frequent gusts of 30-40kt likely. This should lead to another round of marine headlines for all waters, with a mix of SCAs and Gales. Given the strength of the system, a few gusts to near storm force cannot be ruled out over the warmer Gulf Stream waters Sunday/Sunday night.
Winds will then become northwesterly late Sunday night, and lay down to 15-25kt. Seas of 2-4 ft on Saturday will build to 6-10 ft on Sunday. Portions of the central and southern waters may see 10-12 ft seas.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ131-230- 231.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 16 mi | 103 min | NNW 22G | 51°F | 29.97 | |||
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 22 mi | 73 min | NNE 14G | 47°F | 58°F | 29.96 | ||
| 41064 | 23 mi | 95 min | NNW 21G | 53°F | 72°F | 29.95 | 48°F | |
| 41159 | 23 mi | 77 min | 71°F | 5 ft | ||||
| 41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC | 49 mi | 95 min | NNW 21G | 54°F | 69°F | 29.95 | 47°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 23 sm | 34 min | NNW 20G26 | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 43°F | 81% | 29.99 |
Wind History from MRH
(wind in knots)Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina, Tide feet
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet
Morehead City, NC,
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