Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 141904 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 204 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will continue to push through the area this afternoon. High pressure will build in briefly Sunday and Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday. Cold high pressure then builds in through the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 2 PM Sat . Latest analysis shows cold front and upper trough pushing through ENC. An isolated shower will be possible across the northern tier through early evening as upper trough crosses. But overall, quiet weather expected overnight as upr trf pivots offshore with high pres gradually building in from the WSW. Much drier air spreads in with skies gradually becoming mostly clear. Lows will range from upr 30s deep inland to mid/upr 40s OBX where westerly winds will remain gusty.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. As of 2 PM Sat . High pressure will continue to build over the area, making for a pleasant and quiet day with temps near climo. Low level thickness values and mostly sunny skies support highs 55-60 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 1 PM Sat . Drier and mild conditions are expected through Monday. Another cold front will cross the area Tuesday, bringing additional chances for rain, and then colder high pressure builds into the region through Friday. The next storm system could impact the area beginning Friday night into Saturday.

Sunday Night and Monday . H5 heights gradually increase aloft as surface high pressure passes to our south, settling offshore late Sunday through Monday. Dry conditions on tap with temps well above normal given the deep subsidence and primarily SW low level flow.

Tuesday . High pressure will continue to ridge in from offshore Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. Guidance continued to trend a bit slower today with the front reaching and crossing the area in the evening. Additionally, guidance is indicating the potential for two rounds of showers/storms . the first with the primary band of low level moisture convergence well ahead of the front, followed by a could of hours of drier conditions before another round of showers/storms arrives with the primary front. Have tweaked POPs accordingly, but still have likely to categorical as the two rounds of rainfall is expected to bring appreciable rainfall to all of eastern NC. Expect very warm temperatures, with lows only in the 60s Tuesday morning, and then warming up into the upper 60s in the afternoon despite widespread clouds and rain. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal, as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of bulk shear present.

Wednesday through Saturday . Behind the cold front, colder high pressure will build in from the west for this period, as the the Eastern US remains underneath an expansive longwave trough. Strong CAA will limit high temps on Wednesday, despite sunny skies, with readings only reaching the mid 40s across the area. CAA will continue Wednesday night, and very cold temperatures are expected as the axis of a strong shortwave trough crosses the area. Low temps will likely fall into the mid to upper 20s across most of the area, with low 30s on the Outer Banks and beaches. With low level heights slow to recover Thursday, and modest CAA continuing, expect highs only to reach the low to mid 40s. Conditions will finally begin to moderate Friday with high temps back into the low to mid 50s. The next storm system may arrive in the form of a coastal low late Friday into Saturday, but there is considerable uncertainty with major differences between the most reliable global guidance.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 2 PM Sat . Widespread MVFR ceilings continue across the terminals this afternoon, and expect conditions to gradually improve through early evening. Expect VFR to return by late afternoon. WSW winds will gust to around 20 kts through this evening behind a cold front. Drier air spreads in tonight with skies gradually clearing . winds will diminish but expect enough mixing to preclude any late night fog.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 1 PM Sat . VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning when another cold front moves through the area and may bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. VFR returns later Wednesday through the end of the period.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . As of 2 PM Sat . Latest obs show W/SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 6-11 ft. A cold front will push through the waters this afternoon and early evening. Strong W winds 20-30 kt will develop behind the front. Seas will remain rough over the waters, 6-11 ft, through this evening subsiding to 5-8 ft late. High pressure will build over the waters Sun, with winds and seas gradually subsiding. W winds 15-20 kt early becoming W/SW 10-15 kt by afternoon. Seas 4-8 ft subsiding to 3-6 ft. SCAs continue for the waters through Sunday, and sounds through early Sun morning.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 1 PM Sat . High pressure passing south of the area will bring light SW winds Sunday night, becoming S Monday at 10-20 kts, with seas 3-5 ft. Small craft conditions will likely return late Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with winds at SSW 20- 30 kts and seas building to 7-10 ft through Tuesday evening. Then, a cold front will move through the area and turn winds to the NW, still at 20-30 kts through Wednesday. High pressure building into the area will bring improving conditions Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CQD SHORT TERM . CQD LONG TERM . SGK/CB AVIATION . CQD/CB/SGK MARINE . CQD/CB/SGK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	16 mi	89 min	WSW 14 G 17	59°F			999.7 hPa (-0.9)
41159	22 mi	29 min			65°F	7 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	22 mi	59 min	WSW 8 G 12	59°F	56°F		999.7 hPa
41064	23 mi	81 min	W 21 G 29	61°F	65°F		999.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	49 mi	81 min	W 16 G 21	57°F	65°F		1000.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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N8

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SW4 G10

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W11 G20

SW8 G14

1 day ago

N16 G21

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N12 G18

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N11 G17

N12 G19

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N11 G16

NE14 G23

NE14 G22

NE14 G23

NE16 G21

N15 G21

N16 G20

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	23 mi	91 min	WSW 14 G 18	10.00 mi	Overcast	60°F	57°F	93%	999.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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NE5

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N14 G24

N12 G22

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N12 G18

NE14 G23

NE15 G22

NE11 G27

NE14 G25

NE14 G25

NE15 G24

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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