Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 102318 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 718 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Broad and weak low pressure will develop over the Southeast mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM Mon . The latest radar is showing most of the showers and thunderstorms over the coastal plains this evening, but there are diminishing due to the lack of daytime heating. Most of the night is expected to be quite, but some of the models are indicating a possible isolated shower to move through the area after midnight. Otherwise, not major changes to the current forecast.

Pre Dis . Pulse-type convection will be ongoing through the late afternoon into the early evening, and then like the last several nights, will wane with loss of daytime heating. A few of the storms could merge into heavy rain clusters producing a flood threat before they diminish this evening. Otherwise, quite conditions overnight, with perhaps some light fog developing once again, esp for areas that pick up rain. Lows continued warm and muggy in the low/mid 70s interior to near 80 beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 330 PM Mon . Similar pattern on tap, with a few coastal showers transitioning to sct thunderstorms for interior zones by afternoon. More of a southerly component to the winds should keep coastal counties dry for the most part. Highs typical for the first half of Aug, around 90 again for most locales.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 415 AM Monday . Seasonable weather on tap through the long term period, with only minor day to day variability owing to subtle changes in the upper level pattern and strength of low level WAA.

A weakness in the upper ridging across across the Southeast develops mid to late week with more pronounced shortwave energy pushing across the Ohio River Valley and mid-Atlantic states this weekend. In the lower levels, continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze. Weak surface troughing gradually strengthens inland through the week allow for greater storm coverage each day, and would be expected to initiate convection earlier in the day with less capping in place. While ample moisture and instability will be present, shear will be meager with 0-6 km bulk shear generally around 10 kt or less limiting the severe threat. Still, cannot rule out stronger storms producing isolated wind damage and heavy rainfall producing localized flooding. Temps will generally continue to be near normal, with convection being the primary culprit for deviations from normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Tue/ . As of 715 PM Mon . High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 6 hours, then MVFR to IFR conditions are possible, especially in across the inland TAF sites (KPGV & KISO). Lingering low level moisture with light to calm winds will lead to patchy fog and low stratus after midnight. Expect MVFR patchy fog with possible IFR ceiling heights.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 4 AM Monday . Typical summertime pattern through the period with light winds and diurnally enhanced convection each day. Pred VFR conditions expected outside of showers and thunderstorms and patchy early morning fog and/or stratus.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tue/ . As of 715 PM Mon . Very similar to the past several days with favorable boating conditions on tap. Light SW winds no higher than 10-15 kt through the night tonight and into Tue. Seas persist near 2 ft over the outer waters with 1 foot nearshore and only only minor incoming medium period swell.

With similar environmental conditions as yesterday, isolated showers/storms along the coast could produce waterspouts through Tue morning.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/ . As of 430 AM Monday . Good boating conditions continue through much of the long term. Expect S to SW winds around 10 kt into mid week, with gusts to around 15 kt each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. The Bermuda high begins to strengthen offshore mid to late week with southerly winds increasing to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20 kt late Wednesday through the end of the week. Seas persist around 2 ft through Tuesday, then build to 2-3 ft mid to late week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/BM SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . SK AVIATION . SK/BM MARINE . SK/TL/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	16 mi	46 min	SSW 7 G 8.9	82°F			1016.2 hPa (+0.0)
41159	22 mi	20 min			83°F	1 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	22 mi	58 min		83°F	86°F
41064	23 mi	38 min	SSW 9.7 G 14	83°F			1016.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	49 mi	38 min	SW 9.7 G 14	83°F	83°F		1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	23 mi	48 min	SSW 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	83°F	77°F	82%	1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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