Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262004 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 404 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will move along the outer periphery of an area of high pressure offshore, moving north through the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross this weekend followed by high pressure early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 350 PM Tuesday . Low clouds persist across the region at late afternoon as deeper moisture continues to advect in from the south. Surface low pressure will move around the outer periphery of a surface ridge offshore later tonight and Wednesday. Some patchy light showers/sprinkles currently indicated by radar along the southern coast. Think any light rain will be limited to the southern coast for most of tonight, before spreading inland a bit around daybreak Wednesday. Any QPF totals tonight will be very light, only a couple of hundreths. Overnights lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM Tuesday . Latest high-resolution guidance including the 3km NAM and HRRR showing light rain overspreading most of our CWA during the morning hours Wednesday. Some instability will arrive from offshore during the later in the day and will have categorical PoPs with a slight chance of thunder after 18z or so Wednesday. Some embedded heavier downpours are possible Wednesday as well. Winds veer from NE to SE/S early Wednesday, leading to a bit more breaks in the clouds with highs 75 to 80 degrees.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 315 PM Tuesday . A deep SW flow bringing abundance amount of moisture will leading to a wet pattern through the end of the week. Then a cold front will approach the area and push through late Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in and providing drier and cooler weather for early next weather.

Wednesday Night through Thursday . The mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate across the Eastern CONUS as a broad trough settles over the Southern Plains with a mid to upper low cutoff from the flow and gradually wobbling eastward. This will lead to a deep SW flow bringing an abundant amount of moisture into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a coastal trough becomes more define along the Southeast coast with a weak low developing around GA/SC and moving northward along the sfc trough axis. The synoptic setup will lead to widespread rain with heavy downpours at times as ENC will be in the region with good upper-level divergence, 850 mb moisture transport, and PWAT values above 2.00". Models are suggesting some instability to current, so we cannot rule out embedded thunderstorms. By Thursday, the sfc low will becoming an open wave, but the moisture fetch continues, but an increase of instability occurs . leading to more thunderstorms in the Thursday afternoon. WPC has the most of the area in a marginal risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) with a slight risk across our southern zone. In general, if rainfall amounts increases, there can be a concern for flooding across our southern zones where soils are saturated.

Friday through Saturday . While the highest PWAT values lifts northward, PWATs will still remain btw 1.75 and 2.00". The deep SW flow will continue on Friday, though it starts to break down due to a northern stream shortwave diving down into the Northeast states, while a cold front is approaching the region from the NW. Scattered to widespread showers and afternoon thunderstorm will be possible as instability will be the greatest on both day, while on Saturday, shear increases in to around 30 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday . The cold front is forecasted to be offshore by Sunday morning, leading to high pressure building in and clouds clearing out late in the day. The high pressure will bring cooler and drier weather for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/ . As of 2PM Tuesday . MVFR ceilings will hold on for another few hours, with some moments of VFR possible. Pred VFR still expected later this afternoon through early this evening. Then after midnight, guidance has ceilings dropping to MVFR then IFR, similarly to the previous night. A few aggressive models suggest the chance for LIFR, but have precluded that from the TAFs for now until a stronger signal appears. Ceilings will remain IFR through mid- morning as showers begin creep into the region. Ceilings should lift to MVFR towards the end of the TAF period, but visibility will begin to become an issue. Guidance suggests vis will drop to at least MVFR by Wed morning with pockets of IFR vis possible in heavier showers.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 315 PM Tuesday . A wet-pattern continues Wednesday night leading to mostly MVFR conditions through the period. Scattered to widespread rain will occur Wednesday night and Thursday as tropical moistures lifts into the area which will lead to MVFR conditions with brief IFR. Additional scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continues Friday and Saturday, before high pressure builds in Sunday.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/ . As of 4 PM Tuesday . Winds continue NNE/NE at 15 knots or less with seas 3-4 feet at late afternoon. Winds should gradually E/SE toward morning and will become increasingly gusty south of Oregon Inlet with 15-20 knots winds, with gusts up to around 30 knots. SCA continues for areas south of Oregon Inlet and have added the Currituck Beach Light to Oregon Inlet leg as 6-foot seas are likely to begin around midday on Wednesday.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/ . As of 315 PM Tuesday . Winds veer to South on Thursday and finally becoming SW Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. Seas will build to 5-7 ft south of Oregon Inlet Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas will slowly subside Friday, but the central water is expected to remain at 6 ft through Saturday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . BM AVIATION . BM/ML MARINE . CTC/BM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	16 mi	33 min	NNE 11 G 12	67°F			1020.4 hPa (-0.3)	67°F
41159	22 mi	33 min			76°F	4 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	22 mi	45 min	ENE 5.1 G 7	69°F	75°F		1020.4 hPa
41064	23 mi	85 min	ENE 16 G 21	71°F	77°F		1019.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC	49 mi	25 min	ENE 18 G 21	72°F	75°F		1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	23 mi	95 min	E 4	2.50 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	71°F	68°F	90%	1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRH

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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