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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 132 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Western portion, ne to E winds 5 to 10 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Tonight..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 132 Am Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 09z or 1 am pst, a 1034 mb high was over idaho and an inverted trough was over the southern california bight.

FXUS66 KLOX 090434 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 834 PM PST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
08/735 PM.

Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will develop tonight and continue into Saturday, with areas of strong to damaging winds expected across Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Gusty offshore winds are expected to continue into Sunday, then weaken by Monday, before moderate to possibly strong Santa Ana winds return for the middle of next week. High temperatures are expected to be above- normal in many areas for this weekend into next week.

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...08/832 PM.

Offshore pressure gradients continue to strengthen this evening in response to surface high pressure building over the Great Basin. As of 8 pm, the LAX-DAG gradient was now at -4 mb, while LAX-BFL and SBA-BFL gradients were -7.1 and -7.3 mb respectively.
For Santa Barbara county, the strong north-northeast pressure gradients will bring advisory-level wind gusts over the eastern Santa Barbara county mountains tonight, with isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible near Montecito Hills.

Already seeing some impressive Santa Lucia offshore winds this evening across San Luis Obispo county, with Mount Lowe currently gusting to 63 mph and several other foothill locations gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range. In the evening update, have expanded the wind advisory to include the San Luis Obispo County coastal zones. While the strongest offshore winds will remain in the foothills (with gusts in the 45 to 60 mph range), expecting portions of the San Luis Obispo coastal plain areas to see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Otherwise all other High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory headlines look on track, with no other changes anticipated. Areas under a High Wind Warning can expect damaging wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph, while areas under a Wind Advisory can expect gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range.

Across LA and Ventura counties, already seeing some increasing Santa Ana winds this evening across the mountains and foothills with gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range. As the offshore pressure gradient continues to strengthen tonight into Saturday morning, looking for the Santa Ana winds to strengthen and become more widespread across coastal and valley areas. The latest 00Z NAM model has the LAX-DAG pressure gradient peaking around -8 mb on Saturday morning. This in combination with modest upper level wind support will drive a widespread moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event tonight into Saturday. The coverage and intensity of strong winds are expected to gradually decrease late Saturday afternoon and evening.

*** From previous discussion ***

Any lingering strong wind gusts should become confined to the mountains for the remainder of this weekend into Monday, while moderate offshore pressure gradients continue and upper support weakens. Wind Advisories may need to be extended later in the weekend over the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

Downslope flow and mostly clear skies will result in high temperatures reaching a few to several degrees above normal each day through Monday in many areas. Meanwhile, cold overnight lows in the 20s and 30s are expected in interior sections.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...08/207 PM.

The upper pattern will favor persistent offshore flow across southern California through much of next week, while a couple of impulses drop south-southeastward over the Intermountain West and reinforce troughing over the central/western CONUS. As a result, westward displacement of the upper troughing will push upper support closer to the area for the middle of next week. While offshore pressure gradients will continue to be enhanced, the upper support could increase Santa Ana winds back to moderate to perhaps strong levels Tuesday night through Thursday. However, there is variability among model solutions concerning the depth, location, and motion of these impulses, which corresponds to significant uncertainty in the strength of offshore flow for the middle of next week. Regardless, amongst these variable solutions, there is high confidence that the pattern favors dry conditions continuing. High temperatures are expected to be above normal each day next week, though could be cooler if one of the upper impulses were to become deeper and move closer to the area.

AVIATION
09/0028Z.

At 0015Z, the marine inversion was based at 1500 feet with a top at 4000 feet with a temperature of 13C at KLAX.

Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. High confidence in VFR conditions for all sites through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast. There will likely be some turbulence and LLWS across a wide area, particularly the mountains and foothills late tonight and Saturday morning.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in CAVU conditions through the period. Moderate confidence in wind forecast with a 50% chance of easterly winds around 6 knots 12Z-18Z Sat.

KBUR...High confidence in 00Z TAF. CAVU conditions are anticipated through the period. LLWS is possible at times.

MARINE
08/734 PM.

For the Outer Waters, low to moderate confidence in current forecast. Winds have subsided below Gales so a SCA was issued through 3 AM Saturday for the northern two zones, and through 3 PM Saturday for the waters between Santa Cruz Island and San Nicolas Island, due to gusty NE winds. For Saturday night and Sunday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds continuing across PZZ676.
For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northwesterly winds across all the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in current forecast. Other than a 30% chance of SCA level winds Monday afternoon and evening, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, low to moderate confidence in current forecast. Tonight and Saturday, SCA level northeast winds and choppy seas are all but guaranteed for the nearshore waters from Ventura southward, with the strongest winds from Point Mugu to Santa Monica and out to Anacapa Island. Slightly weaker winds are expected across the San Pedro Channel. There is a Gale Warning from midnight tonight into Saturday for the nearshore waters from Ventura to Santa Monica, but the exact starting time of these winds is lower confidence. For Saturday night and Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level northeast winds continuing from Ventura southward. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for all the southern Inner Waters.

BEACHES
08/117 PM.

Long period NW swell (15-18 seconds) will affect the coastal waters through today. For the Central Coast, surf heights of 9 to 12 feet can be expected. For the Ventura county beaches, surf heights of 4 to 7 feet with local sets to 8 feet can be expected.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES will remain in effect for these areas through 400 PM this afternoon. Elsewhere, a BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT will remain in effect through 400 PM this afternoon for dangerous rip currents and elevated surf of 4 to 6 feet.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 88-358-362-369-371-372-374-375-378-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 340>342-345-352-353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
High Wind Warning in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 354-355. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zones 370-373-376-377-380-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect from 8 AM Saturday to 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 288-354-355-358-362-369>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 AM PST Saturday for zones 352-353. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 1 PM PST Saturday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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