Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 131 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog. Thu - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Sat - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. S swell 2 ft after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Sun - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.Mon - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 131 Pm Pdt Wed May 15 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 18z, or 11 am pdt, a 1031 mb surface high was centered 650 nm west of portland, oregon, while a 1002 mb thermal low was located along the california-arizona border. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters.

FXUS66 KLOX 160308 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 808 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
15/807 PM.

Consistent weather is expected through early next week. Coastal areas will continue to see low clouds and below normal temperatures. Interior areas will continue with above normal temperatures with gusty winds at times, especially across the Antelope Valley.

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...15/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed over portions of the Antelope Vly later this afternoon into the early evening in response to a weak upper level disturbance. Some thunderstorms produced brief heavy rain and possibly small hail. A rain gauge in Antelope Acres recorded a quick 0.19 inch between about 430 PM and 444 PM, a rainfall rate of around three quarters of an inch per hour. Lancaster Fox Field airport had 0.02 inch and Palmdale airport had a trace of rain.

Elsewhere, the extensive marine layer clouds covered just about all coast and adjacent vlys thru the afternoon into early this evening, except likely downdrafts from debris clouds coming out of the deserts helped to scatter out the low cloud cover of portions of the L.A. County coast and parts of the San Gabriel Vly early this evening. However, with very strong onshore gradients (approx +8 mb LAX-DAG) the low clouds will quickly fill back in this evening. The low clouds will be widespread overnight from the coast to the lower coastal slopes and into the southern Salinas River Vly in SLO County. Otherwise and elsewhere, the scattered hi level debris clouds over part of the district this evening will move out of the region with mostly clear skies overnight.

Gusty SW-W winds will continue this evening over the L.A. County mtns and deserts, strongest over the Antelope Vly foothills around Lake Palmdale where local gusts to 40 mph can be expected.
Winds are now expected to remain sub-Advisory levels this evening and the Wind Advisory for the western Antelope Vly foothills will be cancelled.

***From Previous Discussion***

Little change remains on the menu through Saturday. The weak upper level low that has been over the area will depart tonight, with weak ridging forming for Thursday through Saturday. This will bring a few degrees of warming to the interior mountains and valleys on Thursday with little change after through Saturday.
High temperatures between 80 and 90 will be common which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. On the coastal side of the mountains however, this upper level change should lower the marine layer a little and decrease chances for drizzle, but otherwise have little affect as onshore pressure gradients remain strongly onshore keeping natures air conditioning on full blast. With that said, the marine layer depth and coverage rarely stays exactly the same every day with unpredictable changes, but there is little reason to believe in any major changes. As a result, High temperatures will remain in the 60s at the beaches, to between 70 and 80 inland, which is technically 5 to 10 degrees below normal but not that unheard of for May Gray. Any day-to-day temperature changes will be due to any unpredictable fluctuations of low cloud daytime clearing times.

Onshore wind gusts will increase and expand over the interior areas as they have been each day, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph generally common in the afternoon and evening hours. The winds will be strongest in the Antelope Valley, especially in the foothills, where local gusts to around 45 mph will remain possible. Will keep the low-end Wind Advisory in play as a result.
Winds could be 5 mph or so stronger Thursday and Friday with the stronger onshore pressure gradients. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly seasonal.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/108 PM.

A series of small but potent low pressure systems will push through the Pacific Northwest Saturday night through early next week. This will break down the ridging aloft, but now that looks to be delayed until early Monday, with Sunday being very similar to the end of this week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the ensemble solutions in terms of what happens next over our region. Some draw a weak low that is currently 1000 miles west of Los Angeles through southern California, while others drop a rather large trough across eastern California and Nevada. Both outcomes should result in a deepening and expansion of the marine layer Monday through Tuesday or Wednesday with some drizzle and widespread cooling (focused over the mountains and interior). The extent and magnitude of those changes rests in which outcome wins out.

AVIATION
16/0058Z.

At 0025Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3200 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5000 feet with a temperature of 19 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. High confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing and flight category. There is a 20% chance of cigs a category lower than forecasted at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. High confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing of category changes and flight category (20% chance of BKN008 cigs).
No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, due to uncertainty in cig heights. There is a 20% chance of BKN008 cigs at times overnight.

MARINE
15/1138 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Sunday, high confidence winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Monday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for zone 381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

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