Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 1:48 AM   Moonset 4:39 PM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of today - NE winds 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and early afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds. Wed - E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 17 seconds. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 15 seconds. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 ft at 7 seconds.Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 12 seconds. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 901 Am Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front offshore will maintain a slight chance of showers and storms today and tonight. High pressure brings drier weather through the rest of the work week. Better rain chances come by the weekend.

FXUS62 KILM 021320 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mild temperatures for July are expected today and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. As the high moves offshore later this week, increasing heat and humidity could lead to dangerous heat indices developing by the weekend. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may begin to increase early next week.

UPDATE
No significant changes with the mid morning update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well to the south and offshore of the area, extending back to near Sapelo Island, GA. Weak low pressure has formed along this frontal boundary, allowing for some isolated light showers to fall over the adjacent coastal waters. Some of that activity will try to sneak onshore into Georgetown County between today and tonight, but other than that, the mainland stays dry. This moisture presence at the coast will mostly manifest itself in elevated cloud cover through this period, while skies remain mostly clear along and west of I-95.
NE to ENE winds persist today and tonight, allowing for the cooler air to stick around. Highs today only reach the mid-to-upper 80s.
Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 60s inland, lower 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The subtropical ridge at 500 mb should remain centered across Alabama and Georgia, close enough for a warm convective cap to remain over the eastern Carolinas between 600-700 mb. While we'll likely have daytime cumulus pop up both Wednesday and Thursday, warm and very dry air aloft will make it hard for convective showers to form. In the low levels, light onshore flow around high pressure departing the Mid Atlantic coast should lead to slowly rising dewpoints as the airmass moderates back toward what is considered normal for July. Inland highs reaching 90-95 on Thursday combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s should produce heat indices at or just above 100 degrees.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The center of the subtropical ridge should crest over the eastern Carolinas during the day Friday. Model trends over the past 24 hours have dropped 500 mb heights by 10-20 meters across the Carolinas beginning late Saturday and show more influence from a slightly stronger pair of shortwaves that move across the Great Lakes. A weaker ridge aloft implies less capping and a better chance for deep convection so forecast PoPs have been adjusted accordingly: 20 percent Friday, 20-40 percent Saturday, and 40-50 percent on both Sunday and Monday.

The bigger story may turn out to be a return of stifling heat and humidity. Strong July sun should lead to inland high temperatures soaring into the 90s each day, but especially Friday and Saturday when upper 90s are expected across the Pee Dee/I-95 region in the capped airmass before the ridge starts to weaken. Dewpoints climbing into the mid 70s should push afternoon heat indices above 105 degrees each day beginning Friday. It's even possible we will reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 110+ heat indices Saturday.

One last note: while some parts of the eastern Carolinas did pick up substantial rain over the past several days, many did not. This was most apparent across portions of South Carolina's Pee Dee region where 30-day rainfall totals are running less than 20 percent of normal. Data collected by authors of the U.S.
Drought Monitor show that agricultural impacts from the drought are worsening quickly in this area. Since no substantial rainfall is expected until at least the weekend, these drought conditions will only continue to worsen.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR throughout the 12Z TAF period. MVFR ceilings have finally eroded away at KCRE and KMYR within the last hour or so. Northeasterly winds become more ENE by tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR should dominate through the end of the work week. Slight chance of flight restrictions on Saturday as chances for convection return.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Northeasterly winds loosen up throughout the day, though still breezy, with sustained speeds at 15kts and gusts up to 20kts. Winds become more ENE tonight at 10-15kts.
Seas at 3-5ft early this morning gradually decrease to 2-4ft throughout the day and tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday night...High pressure centered just off the Mid Atlantic coastline Wednesday should slowly move eastward to just north of Bermuda by Friday. For here across the Carolinas this should lead to easterly winds veering southerly by late in the week, with afternoon and evening increases in wind speed driven by local seabreezes. Generally dry conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday, but showers and thunderstorms could begin to develop across the coastal waters Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056.
MARINE...None.

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New Topsail Inlet
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Tue -- 12:05 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:51 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
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New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

New River Inlet
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:15 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New River Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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