Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Surf City, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Persistent area of mid level clouds seemingly making progress to the east this morning but it will remain a grind for the next several hours. Eventually skies will become more partly sunny today with perhaps some trending near full sun points west. This and some air mass modification will lead to highs in the lower to middle 40s allowing for significant melting. Some decent radiational conditions will develop Saturday morning and with some residual snow cover lows should drop to the lower 20s.
Light winds appear to preclude the need for a cold weather advisory.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Sprawling surface high over the Southeast Sat gradually becomes elongated, shifting south and east Sat night into Sun. Not much warming on Sat and with the cold start in the morning highs still end up well below climo despite an abundance of sunshine. Deep dry air, mostly clear skies and light surface winds under the center of the high Sat night will create good radiational cooling conditions.
Aloft warm advection will already have developed, but the low level cold air almost always holds on for one last night. Expected lows in the low to mid 20s with typical cold spots into the teens.

Warm advection Sun pushes highs into the 50s as the progressive flow aloft starts to usher in clouds above 15k ft. Clouds continue to increase Sun night as a southern stream shortwave moves east along the Gulf Coast. Not really sold on rain chances prior to 12Z Mon, although some of the guidance does have very low rain chances right around daybreak for inland SC. Will maintain inherited slight chance pop for these areas, but better rain chances arrive on Mon.
Increasing cloud cover and southwest winds Sun night will keep lows above freezing for most areas for the first time in what seems like forever, although in reality it will only be 6 days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Most significant feature of note moves across the area on Mon, accompanied by scattered showers. Weak southern stream shortwave crosses the Southeast Mon. Marginal in situ environment with limited moisture, precipitable water around 1", and a lack of instability in the low levels. However, the shortwave will supply some dynamics which will be aided by height falls and is timed with peak heating.
Not an impressive event by any means, but rain chances will be elevated and it's quite likely we'll have a high pop low QPF event on our hands. The shortwave brings a weak front with it which then hangs up in the area lacking any strong mid-level push from the north. Not much moisture around which will limit rain chances and cloud cover while allowing for an extended stretch of temperatures near to slightly above climo through Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High confidence of continuing VFR conditions with coverage of mid- high clouds decreasing Friday afternoon. Light northeast winds.

Extended Outlook...Next chance of sub-VFR conditions will come Monday when a cold front moves through the Carolinas.

MARINE
Through Tonight...
A modest northerly flow will continue across the coastal waters through early Saturday morning. Wind speeds will be in a range of 10-15 knots this morning and scale back to at or below ten by early Saturday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Light northerly winds Sat will become southwest Sat night into Sun as elongated high pressure sags south and east of the waters. Gradient remains weak well into next week keeping speeds 10 kt or less through Mon. Mid-level disturbance on Mon will bring increased rain chances during the day with gradient increasing slightly following its departure. Southwest flow increases to around 15 kt Mon night and Tue. Seas around 2 ft will start to build Mon night peaking at 3-4 ft Tue afternoon/night. Seas will be a mix of a northerly wind wave and an east to southeast swell on Sat. The southeast swell will persist into next week, but the wind wave will change direction, becoming southerly on Sun.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.