Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:31PM Monday September 20, 2021 1:42 AM EDT (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:45PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 200225 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1025 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Abundant moisture across the region will lead to solid daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will arrive from the northwest by late Wednesday, and bring the potential for strong storms ahead of the front. Expect cooler and drier air for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 1020 pm: Deeper moisture just to our southwest will continue to make slight eastward progress into the CWA through the period, especially during the afternoon/evening Monday. In the interim, there isn't much to sustain deep convection over our area, and other than a couple of very small showers over the Upstate, the latest radar imagery reveals all regional precip is confined to areas within the deeper moisture to our west. Shower coverage over our area may increase a bit late tonight in the vicinity of the Blue Ridge, as SE upslope flow begins to increase above the surface. Expect another night of mild minimum temperatures with values some 10 degrees above climo in many areas with all the cloudiness. The clouds should prohibit fog from becoming too widespread.

The deeper moisture should finally be on the move into our area through Monday as the upstream lower MS River Valley trough gets slowly absorbed into a deepening trough arriving from the Plains and Upper Midwest. Upper divergence increases on Monday and the southeasterly flow at low levels strengthens and becomes more orthogonal to the mountain chain. Given recent days wetting rain in parts of the area, and this better forcing and associated coverage, the hydro threat will increase. However, the situation is complicated by upstream convection possible in the SC Lowlands, and perhaps shallower convection near the Upper Savannah River region. This could interrupt the moisture transport. In addition, instability will remain low over much of the area on Monday to limit rainfall rates. So, no FFA will be posted for now, but the Hazardous Weather Outlook will begin to mention this increasing hydro concern for Monday. Clouds and rain will cap max temps in the 70s or lower everywhere but the eastern Piedmont zones.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 130 PM EDT Sunday: Deep upper ridging will continue to slowly slide offshore, while the moisture and upper divergence axis associated with the remnants of Nicholas surges into the area from the southwest. This plume of moisture will push northward in the deep layer S/SW flow out ahead of a stronger upper longwave trough over the north-central CONUS. PWAT values will be between 1.50"-2+" Monday night through Tuesday with 850 mb winds up to 30-40 kts out of the SE, which will provide an upslope enhancement regime focused up and down the Escarpment. Model guidance produces a decent amount of QPF Monday night and Tuesday along the Escarpment region with 2- 4" with locally heavier amounts. This could prog hydro issues over portions of the same area, especially in addition to the rain received over the past few days prior to Monday night and Tuesday. The axis of upper divergence and deep moisture will slowly work its way out of the CFWA later in the day on Tuesday. Either way, widespread coverage of heavier showers will be in store for much of the CFWA during this time frame. Instability will be very limited as a broad surface high sets up shop over the New England Coast and Canada Atlantic. The high will help produce a weak hybrid or in-situ CAD early Tuesday and has it nosing into the CFWA throughout much of the day. In this case, thunderstorm development will be limited, but can't be ruled out, mainly over the southern half of the CFWA and higher elevations where the CAD will be less likely to stabilize the atmosphere. If a wedge boundary develops, another focus for heavier precip and training cells could lead to a secondary area for hydro issues over portions of the CFWA, outside of the mountains. A lull in the precip may occur Tuesday night, depending on how fast that axis of deep moisture lifts out of the CFWA. With extensive cloud cover and precip expected, highs will be slightly below normal, while lows stay well above normal.

And you thought we were done with the short term.. NOT

Going into Wednesday, the upper trough to the west will encroach the CFWA and is shown having a negative tilt as it swings towards the area with an attendant cold front. The trough is expected to evolve into a closed upper low Wednesday over the OH Valley per deterministic models. At the same time, heights falls will quickly enter the region and the CAD should erode rather quickly as the aforementioned surface high slips further offshore Atlantic Canada as the trough and frontal boundary charge eastward. In the latest model runs, the cold front is slightly slower in its progression towards the CFWA by ~6 hours. Strong dynamics develop on the leeside of the trough as the frontal boundary enters the region Wednesday. With deep moisture lingering over the CFWA and if the CAD fully erodes early enough in the day Wednesday, destabilization of the atmospheric column will begin to take place before the front's arrival. The NAM places 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE with ~20-25 kts of 0- 1 km Bulk Shear and 850 mb winds at 25-35 kts along and ahead of the cold front. This is not the most ideal setup for a true QLCS, but with the recent trends from model guidance, a slight uptick in the shear parameters could aid the development of a potential QLCS along the boundary Wednesday afternoon/evening. As of now, pre-frontal activity under this environment would lead to multicellular convection ahead of the front and linear structured convection along the frontal zone. One thing to note, model guidance also produce pockets of ~100 m^2/s^2 of 0-1 km SRH as the boundary sweeps across the CFWA Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this prevails, a couple of weak tornadoes may spin up, but the main threat in this scenario would be damaging straight-line winds. Much drier air will filter in behind the front from the northwest Wednesday night as CAA helps drop temperatures dramatically for this time of the year. This will set us up nicely for true Fall-like weather as lows dip below-normal Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 PM EDT Sunday: The cold front will be east of the CFWA by Thursday and will set up a post-frontal regime. The airmass will drastically change as the Fall season gets well underway. Breezy conditions with clear skies will be in store Thursday, but should subside as the center of a moderating high pressure sets up shop over the CFWA by Friday and should hover over us through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be way below-normal Thursday through Saturday with 50s & 60s in the higher terrain for highs, while 70s exist elsewhere. Lows will be in the low 40s to upper 30s on the ridgetops, 40s over the rest of the mountains/foothills, and low 50s east of the mountains/foothills with some locations flirting with the upper 40s. The airmass will moderate slightly and bring values closer to normal by the upcoming weekend with dry conditions through day 7.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: Showers remain very isolated across the Terminal Forecast Area this evening, and this should generally remain the case through the night. There may be a slight uptick in coverage late tonight near the Blue Ridge as the flow becomes more SE/upslope, but coverage should remain too limited to mention any SHRA. Otherwise, chances for late night/morning restrictions are expected to be higher early Monday than in recent days. IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast to develop in the mountain valleys . including KAVL during the pre-dawn hours, while IFR/low MVFR cigs are expected to develop around daybreak at the upstate SC terminals. Meanwhile, lower cigs should hold off until at least the afternoon at KHKY/KCLT. Cigs will be slow to improve during the daylight hours Monday, with steadily increasing chances for SHRA through the day, such that categorical SHRA is forecast at all sites except KCLT/KHKY by the end of the forecast period. Prob30s will otherwise be forecast at all sites during much of the afternoon. Winds will remain between E/SE and E/NE at 5-10 kts through most of the period.

Outlook: Shower chances continue to increase late Monday through Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front, with thunderstorms possible mainly Wednesday. Nighttime/morning low cigs/vsbys will also be possible each morning through mid-week. Dry and VFR conditions arrive behind the front by Thursday with continued drying Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . HG/JDL SHORT TERM . CAC LONG TERM . CAC AVIATION . JDL


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi83 min Calm G 5.1
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi23 min E 7 G 8.9 75°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi47 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1018.8 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi49 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1019.4 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi48 minN 010.00 miDrizzle70°F70°F99%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

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Last 24hrCalmNE3NE3NE5NE5NE4NE4E7E7E7E4E6SE7E6
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E643SE3SW7W3S4CalmN5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE3N33NE5E3Calm3SE4CalmNW4N3NE5CalmNE4E4CalmCalmCalmN5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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