Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 181844
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
244 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak area of high pressure will remain across the area into Monday.

Moisture will increase through the first half of the work week, as a
bermuda high strengthens over the western atlantic ocean. A cold
front approaches from the northwest and stalls over the region late
in the week.

Near term through Monday
As of 225 pm: strong insolation and "around 70" dewpoints have
resulted in destabilization to the tune of 2000-3000 j kg of sbcape
that encompasses the majority of the forecast area per the latest
spc mesoanalysis. Scattered deep convection continues initiating
near the blue ridge, while isolated activity has begun to develop
within the more robust instability across the foothills and the i-77
corridor. Mean westerly cloud-bearing winds of around 10 kts, along
with outflow propagation will carry scattered convection into the
foothills and piedmont through the evening. Locally very heavy
rainfall will be possible, especially with cells that are able to
anchor along terrain features. Meanwhile, robust dcape, which
exceeds 1000 j kg across much of the area, will lead to a continued
threat for isolated wet microbursts with taller icier storm cores.

Convection should dissipate in most areas by late evening, giving
way to another night of slightly-warmer-than-normal min temps along
with areas of mtn valley fog low stratus (patchy areas likely
outside the mtns as well).

Weak vort MAX moving from the ohio valley is forecast to become
detached from the westerlies across the southeast by Monday
afternoon. The impact to the upper air pattern will be evolution to
more of a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the western
carolinas and northeast ga, meaning there will be a notable
weakening of the mid upper level flow. As such, mean cloud-bearing
winds will decrease from around 10 kts this afternoon evening, to
less than 5 kts tomorrow afternoon, so slow-moving quasi-stationary
storms and locally torrential rainfall may become more of a concern.

Otherwise, not a great deal of change is expected for tomorrow.

Coverage of showers and storms may be slightly higher over the high
terrain owing to a slightly more favorable upper air pattern (with
the aforementioned vort MAX just west of the area), while forecast
pops are slightly lower than today across the piedmont and
foothills, if for no other reason than the weaker steering flow
indicates convection will not be able to cover as much real estate.

Max temps will again be a couple of degrees above climo.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 2:05 pm edt Sunday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z
on Tuesday with the southeast CONUS stuck between upper ridging to
our west and upper ridging over the western atlantic to our east.

As we move into wed, broad upper trofing begins to dig down across
the great lakes as the ridges amplify on either side of us. At the
sfc, the synoptic pattern will remain weakly forced with the bermuda
high continuing to exert control over the large-scale pattern. This
will keep a fairly moist, tropical airmass over the cwfa thru the
period. Instability will be modest each day evening, with little in
the way of shear. Thus, pulse-type convection is expected with
locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong microbursts being the
main threats. Temperatures will continue to be just above normal.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 110 pm edt Sunday: no major changes were made to the going
fcst. The various guidance continues to indicate a cold front will
approach the fa from the northwest early thu. The added lift will
increase the chances for stg svr tstms... However overall deep
layered shear with the bndry looks to remain low-end... .So don t
anticipate highly organized systems. There wont be much of an
airmass change behind the front per llvl theta E analysis... But
temps will likely be held down to near normal levels due to cloud
cover while continued high sfc TD S keep thing muggy feeling. The
front shud stall out across the area and slowly shift southeast into
the weekend... So expect a good chance of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon Fri into sat.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
At kclt and elsewhere: deep convection is once again firing over the
high terrain early this afternoon, and this signals what is more or
less expected to be an afternoon evening similar to yesterday. As
such, all sites receive a vcsh vcts this afternoon, with a tempo for
tsra limited to kclt from 20-23z. Certainly cannot rule out the need
for a tempo at the other sites, but confidence isn't quite high
enough at this point. Convection should be out of the picture by
late evening. At least patchy fog and or low stratus is expected
again Monday morning, but will as usual be most likely in the mtn
valleys, where 2sm sct004 is included at kavl after 10z. Confidence
is otherwise too low to include anything other than 6sm at the other
sites. Winds will generally remain light vrbl through the period.

Outlook: moisture and instability will gradually increase through
the week, resulting in a steady uptick of afternoon evening
convective coverage each day, especially mid to late week as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. Morning fog and low stratus
will be possible each day across the mountain valleys.

Confidence table...

18-24z 00-06z 06-12z 12-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 84% high 90%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 76% high 90%
khky high 100% high 100% high 100% high 95%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 87% high 100%
kand high 100% high 100% high 99% high 94%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi66 min S 2.9 G 7 92°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi66 min S 1.9 G 1.9 97°F 1014.6 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi2.5 hrsSSW 710.00 miFair96°F64°F36%1015.3 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi92 minNW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F55%1016 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi91 minN 1310.00 miFair91°F70°F51%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE3SE4CalmE7E5E4CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmE3CalmCalmS43CalmCalm66SW7SE4N10
G15
1 day agoW10W8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3NE4N4NE3E5E5E34CalmW5NE11
G16
4N4N3
2 days ago--W7W5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmN4N4CalmNE43SE6SE43W6W6NW10
G15
W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.