Tuesday, March2, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:28PM Tuesday March 2, 2021 6:10 PM EST (23:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 021929 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 229 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will cross northern Florida tonight and be off the Carolina coast on Wednesday. This system will spread moisture northward into the region tonight, with some light wintry precipitation possible in the North Carolina mountains overnight. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday into Friday before a moist Gulf Coast low pressure system possibly affects the southeast Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 227 pm EST: High cloudiness continues to hang over the region as of mid-afternoon. At this point, think we aren't going to make our high temp fcst, so a few degrees have been cut. Otherwise, high pressure and dry air continue to keep light precip at bay to our south.

For tonight, not much has changed with regard to the earlier thinking about the winter precip potential across the mtns. The upper low seen on water vapor imagery over AR this afternoon will move east and deamplify tonight, then open up as it crosses the Carolinas Wednesday morning. The upper system will trigger weak cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast in the pre-dawn hours. The latest guidance still suggests this system will deal only a glancing blow to the fcst area. Mid/upper forcing develops from the W/SW this evening and moves across the region in the pre-dawn/early morning hours Wednesday, but low level forcing is lacking. Light precip seen to the south across AL/GA will slowly spread northward but will have difficulty making progress against the dry air mass supported by weak high pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That should put us in the precip gradient tonight and early Wednesday. There are some differences in model temp profiles late tonight across the mtns, but in this scenario, without strong low level warm advection, think we are looking more like an elevation-dependent light snow/sleet situation. There isn't much confidence or much to suggest this will even approach Advisory criteria. For openers, it is by no means certain that anyone across the mtns is likely to get measurable precip, and locations north of I-40 might not get any precip at all. Even if precip reaches the ground, the QPF is minimal at best, with the potential much less than one inch. We will handle the situation with appropriately timed and worded Special Weather Statements, unless radar trends suggest otherwise. Temps will be close to normal. The low pulls away to the east a bit faster than expected on Wednesday morning, all but ending precip by midday. The afternoon should be sunny and breezy as high pressure starts to build back in. Westerly low level cold advection, a developing downslope flow, and lingering cloudiness over the east make for a tricky high temp fcst. Still think the odd situation with warmest temps to the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge looks the most reasonable.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 2:00pm EDT Tuesday: The short term forecast begins Wednesday evening with previous precipitation bearing system well east of the region and dry, northwesterly to northerly low-level flow continuing to dry things out. Clearing skies and downslope flow on Thursday will lead to a good warm-up, with highs Thursday 5 degrees or so above normal. High surface pressure gradually builds Thursday into Friday, with center of high pressure northwest of the region. Some slackening of the winds at night along with clear skies could lead to some fog in the fog-prone valleys of Western North Carolina where some surface moisture may abide, Thursday and Friday mornings. Picture changes little on Friday, but clouds begin to increase Friday afternoon in advance of the next system that takes a pronounced southerly track. Increased cloud cover and a reduction in down-slope wind will yield lower highs on Friday, close to seasonal normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 2pm EDT Tuesday: The extended forecast from Saturday through Wednesday will be impacted by one synoptic upper shortwave that tracks across the Deep South on Saturday. This system takes a very southerly course, with probably minimal impacts as far north as the GSP area. Latest models have reduced the previous low rain amounts further, and put most of the rain with the system's passage along the Gulf Coast. The GFS still has a few hundredths of an inch of rain in its forecast for Saturday, while the EC model has barely a trace. Surface temperatures at higher elevation locations could be below freezing Saturday morning, giving some limited chance for a little snow at that time in any places that actually get some precipitation.

Following the passage of the southerly system on Saturday, northwesterly upper flow sets in again for Sunday which is replaced by mid-level ridging on Monday that looks to persist through Tuesday. It is possible for an isolated embedded shortwave to give a few showers over the mountains on Tuesday (as depicted by the EC model), but this is ill-define this far out in the forecast. On Wednesday, ridging begins to give way to next major synoptic system which currently looks in both the GFS and EC models to increase chances for rain around Thursday.

Dry surface air with RH afternoon minimum values down into the 20s and 30s Sunday and Monday may give some increase in fire danger, but winds are expected to be fairly light at 5 to 10 kts.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the late evening hours with extensive high clouds thickening and mid-clouds moving in. Wind should remain NE into the early part of the evening, but pinning down a switch from ENE to ESE at KCLT has been difficult. Still think it will happen, but the guidance has pushed it off until 22Z and think it might end up a bit later than that. Not much has changed with regard to low pressure moving past to our S/SE overnight and early Wednesday. Still think this system will only deal a glancing blow to the region in terms of aviation restrictions and precip. Think the best course of action right now would be to limit any prevailing restrictions to the Upstate/mtn TAF sites where probs are likely, mainly from the pre-dawn hours through daybreak. Uncertain arrival time is handled with a PROB30 at all sites, then a TEMPO for the window where precip is most likely closer to daybreak. The lowest restrictions will be held in the TEMPO. That still leaves KCLT VFR through the whole event, which seems reasonable at this point based on the guidance trend. Expect a quick clearing on Wednesday mid-morning with wind backing around to N and NW.

Outlook: VFR conditions will return from the west by Wednesday afternoon and should persist through Friday. Moisture could return with a Gulf Coast low pressure system toward the weekend.

Confidence Table .

19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 80% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 99% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% Med 73% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% Med 69% High 92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . PM SHORT TERM . WJM LONG TERM . WJM AVIATION . PM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi170 min NE 6 G 8
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi170 min E 4.1 G 8 49°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi74 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F25°F41%1021.1 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi76 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds48°F25°F41%1021.3 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi75 minE 410.00 miFair47°F26°F43%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W6NW6CalmCalmN3N5NE6NE5NE6NE7NE7E7E10E11E10E11E7NE5E6NE5E9NE8E5
1 day ago--S7SW7SW8SW6SW6S9SW9SW11SW9SW12S12S11W8W7NW3SW6SW13W13
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2 days agoCalmN3NE3NE3CalmCalmE5E4CalmNE3CalmNE3N3CalmE3CalmSW3SW8S5SW6SW11SW11S9SW10

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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