Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Homeland Park, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:22PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:43 AM EST (07:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Homeland Park, SC
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location: 34.46, -82.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 130556 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1256 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lingering cold air combined with a developing coastal cyclone will bring a period of freezing rain across parts of the western Carolinas tonight into Friday morning before becoming all rain. A brief break in the action is expected later this weekend before a slow moving cold front brings rain back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 1255 AM: Have updated the forecast for current conditions. That said will stay the course on all existing Winter Weather Advisories as precipitation continues over the area, and the zero isotherm LAPS surface wet bulb temperature contour agrees fairly nicely with the WSW outline for light icing. Regional radars now have the first fairly solid precipitation band lifting northeast across the western Upstate and the southern NC mountains, and this heavier precipitation should be reaching the lower wet bulb areas very shortly. Radar shows additional bands moving northeast across GA and this should be the activity that really starts to accrue ice in the affected areas overnight. Anticipate some warming of surface temps from the west overnight, but locations nearer the I-40 corridor in the foothills and far northwest piedmont could well see a more extended period of steady freezing rain. Ice accumulations have been boosted slightly from the Saluda grade area in the central mountains to the Morganton/Hickory area, where ice accums may well exceed a tenth of an inch by daybreak - with a very few locations approaching two tenths of an inch of ice. We are now featuring nearly one-quarter inch of ice in south-central Burke County, which should represent the higher end of the spectrum for accumulations in the forecast area and could the primary area to watch for any possible Warning upgrade overnight.

Otherwise, the first round of forcing arising from upper DPVA and low-level upglide will slide slowly east of the area through Friday, but with sharper upper height falls redeveloping to the west through late day. Anticipate a very cool and damp day across the region on Friday, but with any heavier rainfall gradually moving east of the I- 77 corridor. It is likely that the Winter Weather Advisory will be able to be cancelled from west to east a bit earlier than the current Noon expiration time, especially in the mountains.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 250 PM EST Thursday: With upper trough axis just west of the FA and plenty of moisture in place given WSW flow, an unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist Friday night through into Saturday, with all precipitation expected to fall as rain as temperatures remain just above freezing. Additional rainfall of 0.25- 0.35" will be possible, with higher amounts expected mainly across the upslope areas. Latest guidance continues to depict the southern stream trough axis swinging through overhead early Saturday morning, as the coastal low along the NC coast ejects off to the northeast. Precipitation looks to linger along the TN border, while elsewhere, precipitation will taper off by early Saturday afternoon, with lingering clouds throughout the rest of the day. With colder air infiltrating in Saturday night, precipitation will likely taper off as rain/snow showers across the NC mountains. However, given lower QPF amounts with this fcst package, do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations. Expect a drying trend and gradually clearing skies on Sunday with nearly zonal flow aloft and a brief period of sfc high pressure, with an approaching cold front well to the NW. Max temperatures will climb just a few degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday, with min temperatures well above normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 235 PM Thursday: Not too much in the overall thinking for the extended period. Zonal flow with weak high pressure over the area Monday will give way to a slowly developing and moving positively tilted low wave trough. An attendant cold front is expected to slowly press through the area Tuesdayish. Strong southwest flow and an increasing moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico may support a period of heavier rain in advance of the cold front, focused across the southwest mountains. There also continues to be a non-zero low cape/ high shear severe weather potential focused southeast of I-85. However, the best upper level forcing remaining well to the north and orientation of the front gradually becoming more southwest to northeast may limit these threats. Above normal temperatures well into the 60s will be possible in advance of the front. Northwest flow and moisture seems to be limited behind the front so any turnover to snow across higher elevations would likely be brief with minimal impacts. Seasonably cold and drier air filters in behind the front by Wednesday. A long-wave trough centered over the Hudson Valley may support continued northwest flow atop the region through later in the week with fair conditions prevailing for most. However, this pattern may be conducive for northwest flow induced snow showers across favored mountain locations at some point.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: Cigs dropping into MVFR range at this time and should fall to IFR before daybreak. Vsby will be slower to fall to MVFR by daybreak then IFR after. IFR to LIFR will continue through the day. IFR to LIFR continues into the evening as well. Best chance for FZRA will be at KAVL and KHKY and have included it at those sites. NE winds will continue outside of the mountains with some low end gusts at the SC sites. KAVL will see S to SE wind throughout the day then go NNW late in the evening.

Outlook: Restrictions will likely continue well into Saturday as another trough of low pressure arrives from the west. Dry/VFR conditions will then return behind a cold front through Sunday and persist until the next front arrives Monday night or Tuesday.

Confidence Table .

06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z KCLT High 86% High 88% High 88% High 87% KGSP Med 78% High 83% High 80% Med 79% KAVL Med 75% High 90% High 92% High 87% KHKY High 85% High 81% High 87% High 83% KGMU High 90% Med 78% Med 76% Med 75% KAND High 85% High 81% High 83% Med 78%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ033- 035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-063>065-068>070-501>510. SC . Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for SCZ003.

SYNOPSIS . 65 NEAR TERM . HG/RWH SHORT TERM . SGL LONG TERM . 65 AVIATION . RWH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 62 mi84 min NNE 8 G 13 39°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 82 mi84 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 39°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anderson, Anderson County Airport, SC3 mi1.8 hrsNE 10 G 152.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%1027.9 hPa
Clemson, Clemson-Oconee County Airport, SC17 mi50 minENE 13 G 1610.00 miOvercast35°F32°F89%1027.3 hPa
Pickens County Airport, SC24 mi49 minE 510.00 miLight Drizzle34°F34°F100%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAND

Wind History from AND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE6NE9NE11NE13NE11E8E11E11E14E10NE8E8E12E14
G18
NE10NE10NE10NE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3E4E3E7E4NE4CalmN3NE4NE5E8E6E3E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE4CalmW3CalmS13SW13SW14
G25
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W10W8W6W10W4W3CalmNE4E3E4E4E4CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.