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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 233 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.

PZZ600 233 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 10z or 2 am pst, a 1026 mb surface high was located about 750 nm west of point conception, while a 1014 mb thermal low was along the southern california coast.

FXUS66 KLOX 111157 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 357 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
11/356 AM.

Offshore flow will continue for most of the week, with gusty winds north to northeast winds at times, especially Tuesday night through early Thursday. Dry conditions are expected through at least Saturday, with generally above normal temperatures during the days, and colder than normal nights, at least wind-sheltered locations. A storm system moving into the eastern Pacific may bring some rain to the region as early as late this weekend.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...11/349 AM.

Offshore flow continued to weaken this morning, with the KLAX to KDAG gradient now about 4 mb offshore, or about 3 mb less offshore than at this time Sunday. Some locally gusty northeast winds continued across the mtns and valleys of L.A. and Ventura Counties and across the Santa Lucia Range early this morning.
However, winds should stay below advisory levels in all areas, then diminish late this morning. A thick veil of high clouds was moving across the region, and this should make for a partly to mostly cloudy morning. Skies should become mostly sunny this afternoon as the cloud deck shifts eastward.

A weak trough will move into the Pac NW today, causing heights and thicknesses across the region to fall. Expect max temps today to be a few degrees lower than they were on Sun, with the most cooling likely across the coastal plain and in the lower valleys, the weakening offshore gradients will allow earlier and stronger sea breezes. Max temps may actually rise a bit in the mtns and the Antelope Valley since there will be no low-level cold advection.

The models are in generally good agreement in showing a short wave trough dropping southward through the Pac NW and into the Great Basin tonight and Tue, eventually forming a closed upper low over Nevada late in the day. A sharpening trough will extend southwestward into the forecast area, and heights and thicknesses will continue to fall. The WRF hints at some low clouds possibly returning to coastal sections of L.A. and Ventura Counties and the Central Coast late tonight/Tue morning, but with such dry low levels, it may be a challenge for an organized low cloud field to develop. With falling heights, cooling at 950 mb, and a return to onshore flow, expected several degrees in most areas on Tue, though max temps may still be slightly above normal. N-S gradients tonight and Tue may become offshore enough to allow for some gusty winds NW-N across SBA County, but do not expect any advisory level winds.

The upper low will become more compact and drop southward into northwestern Arizona late Tue night and Wed morning, and a ridge will amplify across the eastern Pacific. The will cause an increasing gradient of the 500 mb heights across the region, with some increase in northerly winds aloft. Low level gradients will become more offshore again by Wed morning. Although the KLAX to KDAG gradient will generally only be between 3 and 4 mb offshore Wed morning, there will be some modest increase in upper support and some cold air advection Tue night. This should produce an uptick in northerly winds across SBA County and maybe through the I-5 Corridor Tue night. Then, as the low level flow turns more NE, there may be an increase in NE winds across the mtns and valleys of L.A. and Ventura Counties with winds possibly pushing into the Ventura County coast, and to the Malibu Coast. Winds could get close to advisory level in some areas late Tue night/Wed, but at this time, it does not look as though it will be nearly as windy as it was on Sat.

Max temps may be up a couple of degrees west of the mtns due to offshore flow and some height rises, but low level cold advection may bring some cooling to the mtns and the Antelope Valley. Tue night will be a chilly night in wind sheltered locations across the interior, with some freezes possible in the normally colder valley locations of SLO and SBA Counties.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/210 PM.

Light to moderate offshore flow expected to continue through next Sunday but without any upper support winds are expected to be below advisory levels. High pressure will follow the inside slider bringing warmer temperatures to the region with low humidities.
Highs will be 5-10 above normal through the period, though overnight lows will be chilly, especially in wind protected locations.

The next storm system on the horizon looks to be another tricky cut off low situation. Models at one time had been indicating a trough with decent moisture moving through the area over next weekend but more recent ensemble solutions have trended much slower with the arrival as ridging develops over western North America and stalls the eastward propagation of the trough near 140w, or roughly 1000nm west of Pt Conception. The official NBM forecast still has 15-30 pops across the area next Sunday but that's just factoring in some previous faster moving model solutions that are now much less in favor. So while rain chances from this system still look good, the much more likely arrival day now is into the following week, between Monday and Wednesday (Dec 18-20).

AVIATION
11/1056Z.

Around 0930Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a surface-based inversion up to around 700 feet with a temperatures near 21 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through 03Z Tuesday, then moderate confidence for coastal terminals thereafter. There is a low-to-moderate chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions after 03Z Tuesday. There is a low chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence through 16Z.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through at least 03Z Tuesday, then there is a 30 percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions.
There is a less than 10 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence through 16Z. Any easterly winds will likely remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a less than 10 percent chance of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence through 16Z.

MARINE
11/246 AM.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, northwest winds will continue to increase Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through this afternoon. There is a 30-50 percent chance that winds will drop below SCA levels late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will drop below SCA levels between late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, then remaining below SCA levels through the remainder of the week.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a 30-50 percent chance of SCA level northwest to north winds each evening across the western and central Santa Barbara Channel through Wednesday evening. Farther to the south between Rincon Point and Pacific Palisades, there is 30-40 percent chance of SCA level northeast winds Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Gaviota
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Mon -- 01:30 AM PST     2.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:55 AM PST     6.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:12 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:42 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:50 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM PST     3.55 feet High Tide
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