Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Solvang, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:53PM Friday December 13, 2019 1:03 PM PST (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 831 Am Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm pst this afternoon through Saturday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night...
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 16 seconds. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less.
Tonight..Western portion, nw to W winds 15 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, se winds 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Combined seas 9 to 12 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Sun..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Eastern portion, nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..E winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 831 Am Pst Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z or 7 am pst, a 1028 mb high was 600 nm sw of point conception, and a 1010 mb low was 200 nm sw of medford with a cold front extending sw of the low. In addition, a strong 979 mb was low located in the gulf of alaska. This strong low pressure system will continue to bring high seas to the local coastal waters through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Solvang, CA
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location: 34.47, -120.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 131818 AAA AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1018 AM PST Fri Dec 13 2019

updated aviation discussion

SYNOPSIS. 13/823 AM.

Today will be partly cloudy with above normal temperatures. A approaching low pressure system will bring cooler weather and breezy conditions. There will also be a chance of light rain tonight mainly north of Point Arguello. This chance moves to the mountain areas Saturday morning, with snow developing later. Dry and warmer weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 13/921 AM.

Lots of dense fog this morning, mainly north of Pt Conception but also a small area covering the South Bay parts of LA County from just south of LAX to LGB. Added a couple hours to the dense fog advisory as visibilities were still very low at 9am.

Profilers showing a little warming in the lower levels but gradients have already started trending onshore so temps across inland areas will be similar or slightly warmer but coast and some coastal valleys will likely drop a degree or two from yesterday.

***From Previous Discussion***

N-S gradients will be strong enough for gusts winds again tonight across southern SBA County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor, but winds should remain below advisory levels.

An upper low will approach the Oregon Coast tonight. Models show the tail end of a weakening frontal system moving into SLO and northern SBA Counties, and latest models show this front holding together enough to possibly bring some light rain to SLO and possibly northern SBA County tonight. Elsewhere, skies will become partly cloudy tonight.

As the trough drops through Oregon and northern CA and into the Great Basin Sat and Sat night, moist northerly flow will develop, bringing a chance of showers to interior sections of SLO and SBA County and the northern mountains of VTU County Sat, expanding into the mountains of L.A. County Sat night. Showers will linger on northern slopes of the mtns of VTU and northwestern L.A. County Sunday morning. Snow levels will lower quickly Sat night, possibly down to 4000 feet by early Sunday. While precipitation totals in the mountains are not expected to be excessive, snow could cause some travel problems on portions of Interstate 5 late Sat night/Sun morning.

Elsewhere, expect skies to be partly to mostly cloudy Sat, and there will be significant cooling. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop in the Antelope Valley on Sat, with gusty northwest to north winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor Sat and across southern SBA County Sat night.

Skies will become mostly sunny across the region on Sunday. However, there will likely be a bit more cooling in most areas on Sunday. Expect gusty NW-N winds to continue across the Interstate 5 Corridor on Sunday, and to develop again across southern SBA County Sun evening.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 13/434 AM.

An upper ridge will amplify just off the West Coast on Mon, then it will move into CA on Tue. Both the GFS and the EC show offshore flow both days, stronger on Tue, with the EC the stronger of the two. As mentioned, there is not much in the way of upper level support, but expect areas of gusty northeast winds across L.A. and VTU Counties mtns, valleys and coastal areas that typically receive Santa Ana winds. The atmosphere will be rather cool, so although max temps will definitely be higher Mon and Tue than over the weekend, it will not be a warm Santa Ana, with the highest temps probably having a tough time reaching 70 degrees.

Beyond Tue, forecast confidence is very low. The GFS continues to be more progressive, with the ridge axis moving into the Great Basin Tue evening, and an upper low approaching the coast of Central CA late Tue night. This low will move across northern CA Wed, while the EC keeps it well off the coast through Wed afternoon, then brings it to near Pt Conception late Wed night, and shows it tracking to the south of the region on Thu. The operational run of the GFS brings rain to northern areas late Tue night, pushing across the entire area on Wed, turning to showers Wed night, then dry weather on Thu. The EC keeps precip off the coast trough Wed night, then takes most of the rain to the south and west of the forecast area. For now, have kept slight chance of chance pops across northern sections late Tue night, and across across the entire region Wed, following the GFS and most of its ensembles.

AVIATION. 13/1817Z.

At 1730Z, the marine layer was around 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 3100 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence overall in the 18Z TAFs. LIFR conditions in dense fog will prevail at KPRB and KLGB thru about 20Z, with a 30% chance of these conditions at times for KLAX. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all the airfields thru early this evening. Low clouds and fog with LIFR conditions at times are expected at KPRB, KSBP and KSMX this evening to Sat morning, but there is a 50% chance IFR or MVFR conditions could prevail for the most part during the period.

For the rest of the coast and vly airfields. mostly MVFR cigs are expected to develop this evening or late tonight and linger into Sat morning, but timing of these conditions may be off +/- an hour or two. There is also a 50% chance of IFR cigs at times during that period for KLGB.

For KWJF and KPMD, there is generally hi confidence that VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period, with gusty W winds developing tonight into Sat morning.

KLAX . Moderate confidence overall in the 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of LIFR cigs/vsbys thru about 20Z otherwise VFR conditions can be expected thru about 09Z tonight. MVFR cigs are expected to develop around 09Z and persist thru about 20Z Sat. Timing of these conditions may be off +/- an hour or two.

KBUR . Moderate confidence overall in the 18Z TAF. VFR conditions can be expected thru about 15Z Sat followed by MVFR cigs. Timing of these conditions may be off +/- an hour or two, but there is a 30% chance these conditions could develop as early as 09Z-12Z.

MARINE. 13/840 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and/or seas will continue through at least late Sun night. The GALE WARNING is in effect for Sat afternoon and Sat night for PZZ676. With the gusty winds, short-period, choppy seas will be likely. High seas over 10 feet will continue through late Sun night, therefore a SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is not only in effect for winds, but for hazardous seas. There is a 30% chance that GALE force winds could occur across the southern portion of zone PZZ673 for areas S of Point Conception during the same time as the Gale Warning in the southern zone.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60%-70% chance of SCA level winds Sat thru Sun night. With the gusty winds, short- period, choppy seas will be likely. High seas over 10 feet will continue into Sunday night as well. Small Craft Advisory conditions for hazardous seas which, along with the gusty winds, will remain in effect through late Sun night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel starting by mid afternoon then spread across much of the channel with northwest to west winds. Also, a few hours later, there is a 60% chance for SCA level winds for the western portion of PZZ655. The SCA level winds will continue through noon Saturday, when a GALE WARNING will go into effect for the entire inner waters for gusts to 35 knots. This will continue through late Saturday night. The winds will shift to the north on Mon then to the east on Tue, with a 30%-40% chance of SCA level winds at times.

A large and long period west to northwest swell will impact the coastal waters through at least late Sun night, resulting in hazardous sea conditions and large breaking waves near shore, especially with a large short period wind swell on top of that. Breaking waves at the Morro Bay and Ventura Harbor entrances will be possible.

BEACHES. 13/840 AM.

A large long-period west to northwest swell will continue across the coastal waters of southwest California, peaking today into Saturday morning, then slowly diminish over the remainder of the weekend.

Surf will likely peak between 12 and 16 feet for the Central Coast. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY is in effect for the Central Coast through Monday morning.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY is also in effect through noon Sunday for the beaches south of Point Conception with surf between 6 and 10 feet possible. Highest surf will occur across exposed west facing beaches. Strong rip currents and dangerous breaking waves are expected.

With high tides around 6.5 feet today and Saturday, minor coastal flooding is possible during the late morning high tides. Any coastal flooding impacts should be confined to the beaches, with flooding possible in the most vulnerable parking lots, bike paths, and walkways.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST this morning for zones 34>37-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Monday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Sunday for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until noon PST Sunday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to noon PST Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from noon Saturday to 3 AM PST Sunday for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to noon PST Saturday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Light snow may create driving hazards over the mountains Saturday night into Sunday, including Interstate 5 over the Grapevine. High surf is likely Sunday at area beaches and minor coastal flooding is possible. Gusty northerly winds expected Sunday in many areas but strongest in the mountains. Gusty northeast winds possible across parts of LA/Ventura Counties Monday and Tuesday.



PUBLIC . MW/DB AVIATION . Sirard MARINE . Kaplan/Sirard BEACHES . Kaplan/RAT SYNOPSIS . Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi24 min NW 21 G 25 58°F 61°F1020.5 hPa55°F
HRVC1 24 mi52 min 56°F 1021.7 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 24 mi64 min N 21 G 22 57°F 1020.9 hPa (-1.0)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 25 mi24 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 62°F1019.2 hPa61°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 28 mi88 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 1020 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 30 mi34 min 60°F12 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA12 mi69 minSW 610.00 miFair61°F57°F88%1021.3 hPa
Lompoc, Lompoc Airport, CA19 mi68 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F60°F100%1021.6 hPa
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA21 mi71 minSW 310.00 miFair65°F57°F76%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIZA

Wind History from IZA (wind in knots)
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W3W5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmE3NE3CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmS4NW7
2 days agoSW3W4W4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:20 AM PST     2.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:40 AM PST     6.13 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:00 PM PST     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:30 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:39 PM PST     3.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.432.52.22.22.73.54.55.466.15.64.63.21.70.3-0.5-0.8-0.60.21.22.33.13.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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